The Boston Celtics are the defending Atlantic division champions and are currently on pace to repeat. The Toronto Raptors were their main challengers last season and should give them a run for their money this season as well. Philadelphia is the ultimate future challenger, New York has a flying unicorn, and with Brooklyn trading for Jahlil Okafor, I thought now would be a good time to look at just how strong the youth movements across the Atlantic are.
For this outlook, I wanted to focus on players currently 25 and under, as that allows the inclusion of some players whom teams need to make decisions on over the next couple of summers. The aim is to get a feel for how these teams will look to set themselves up in the future, and which among them are best equipped to do so.
Brooklyn Nets
Average youth squad age: 22.3 (youngest).
Potential franchise centerpieces: D’Angelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor.
Position distribution: 5 guards, 2 wings, 2 bigs.
Sean Marks has done a terrific job as general manager since taking over in 2016. To have no future first-round picks in sight and now have the second and third overall picks from the 2015 NBA draft speaks to his business acumen and ability to create something out of nothing.
Both D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor haven’t had the greatest starts to their career, but will both have chips on their shoulder after being given up on so early in their careers and will be eager to prove their worth. Russell showed signs of doing so before his injury, averaging 20.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists while shooting a career-best 46.3 per cent from the field.
Okafor, on the other hand, is in with the new vogue of athlete vegan diets and has dropped 20 from his 278-pound frame last season. He is easily the most talented big on the roster now, and should have every opportunity to prove that he was merely a victim of circumstance in Philadelphia. With both players at 21 years of age, this seems a worthwhile gamble on Marks’s part and the secondary pieces should complement them over the coming seasons.
Spencer Dinwiddie has proven himself an able backup point guard that can adequately fill in as a starter when needed. Now in his fifth season, Allen Crabbe is a 40.8 per cent career three-point shooter, and gives them additional ball handler that can spot up as well. Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Jarrett Allen have all shown signs that they can be strong contributors when assigned specific roles.
Nik Stauskas and Isaiah Whitehead are probably the most unlikely young players to have a long-term future with the Nets.
What does the future hold?
Figure out what D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor are. The best thing about a rebuilding team playing at a fast pace is that numbers can look inflated and thereby increase their trade value. Continue to have head coach Kenny Atkinson build a culture of hard work and team ball, and if the pieces fit, roll with it.
The Nets have lacked stability since the day Mikhail Prokorov took over and that is what they should seek out first. Even if Russell and Okafor don’t have a ceiling near the combination of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, bringing back consistency and sustained success to this franchise would be a huge step forward.
Best case
D’Angelo and Jahlil combine to become an incredibly effective 1-2 offensive punch, the complementary pieces can defend well enough to make up for their stars, and they become a fun, potential home-court in the first-round type of team.
Worst case
Okafor is unplayable defensively, Russell can’t find a way to focus consistently, and the Nets are a mediocre team by which point they should at least have their own first round picks again. Not too shabby, but only in relative terms.
Ceiling grade: B
Floor grade: C-
Youth depth grade: C+
New York Knicks
Average youth squad age: 23.2 (T-oldest).
Potential franchise centerpieces: Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina.
Position distribution: 3 guards, 2 wings, 3 bigs.
The Knicks are plenty of fun, at home. When you watch them play at Madison Square Garden, where they’re 12-5, it’s hard to fathom how they’re 1-8 on the road.
Perhaps, this is just the growing pains of a team that has just been freed from the shackles of Carmelo Anthony and Phil Jackson still in the process of figuring things out. They have an offensive rating of 109.2 at home, but that number whittles all the way down to just 97 on the road. New York shoots 36.3 per cent from three in the friendly confines of MSG, but 33.2 per cent away from home. They average a steal more per game at home, and turn it over a couple of times more per game on the road.
To me, those numbers are reflective of a team that thrives on the energy of their home fans and finds those familiar looking rims just a touch bigger. These are weakness that are curable with experience.
Kristaps Porzingis clearly has potential to be one of the game’s greats at this point and so it’s a matter of finding the right pieces to build around him both on the court and the sidelines. Frank Ntilikina has the makings of a lockdown defender at a position where scoring can separate good from great, but his own offense still needs work.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has surprised people by living up to the big payday he received over the summer, but they won’t have the type of success they’ll need to keep Porzingis around with him as their second or third-best player. Doug McDermott has been as inconsistent as ever while Enes Kanter probably isn’t someone they should have significant money committed to long-term. Ron Baker will likely not fit into the grand scheme either.
What does the future hold?
They are limited by a lack of cap flexibility courtesy of the Joakim Noah and Hardaway Jr. contracts, and so must make good draft choices. A home run would be nice, but some solid singles to build depth in this roster would go a long way. I’m not sure that Jeff Hornacek is the long-term answer for this franchise, but finding a better option shouldn’t be a major issue with coaches likely lining up to coach Porzingis.
Their cap situation is similar to the Raptors, in that they will be at their most flexible by the summer of 2020. If they can have Porzingis and Ntilikina build a reputation as a strong duo by then, it makes swinging for the fences that much easier.
Best case
James Dolan sells the team. Ntilikina and Porzingis are great together, a star at the wing position joins them, and Hardaway Jr. is a fourth option. This probably gets them near the level of a conference finalist, and anything can happen from there.
Worst case
James Dolan continues to asphyxiate this franchise, they’re unable to secure a big name free agent, and Porzingis sees no hope and leaves the first chance he gets.
Ceiling grade: A
Floor grade: F
Youth depth grade: C
Philadelphia 76ers
Average youth squad age: 22.5
Potential franchise centerpieces: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz.
Position distribution: 4 guards, 3 wings, 3 bigs.
They already look like a nightmare playoff matchup when healthy, and that remains the biggest question mark.
Joel Embiid has been sensational in his 22 games, averaging 23.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and two blocks per game in just 30 minutes per game. He’s only had to miss four games, but the stigma is still there as fans hold their breath with every fall to the ground. A late scratch from the lineup due to back concerns like the one he had Sunday night don’t help either.
Ben Simmons is on course for one of the greatest rookie seasons in NBA history, and after sitting out last season, looks like a freight train ready to bust through anyone that dares to stand in his way. His vision, timing and placement of passes, and his size make him an absolute freak.
Markelle Fultz has had an unfortunate start to his career, but at 19-years-old, the best is yet to come. The 2017 draft class has been great as a whole, and I fully expect him to carve out a suitable fit as one of Philadelphia’s big three over time. Hopefully, he goes back to his old shooting form before the shoulder injury.
Beyond those three, the Sixers have some nice pieces in Robert Covington, J.J. Redick, and Trevor Booker for now, but these are not necessarily the pieces that will be around when their stars are at their peak. Dario Saric was good enough to win the Rookie of the Year award last year and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has shown signs of being a solid role player. Same goes for Justin Anderson.
T.J. McConnell and James Michael-McAdoo would do well to remain a part of this group.
What does the future hold?
A big reason why J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson were offered extra money for a one-year deal was so that the team could maintain enough cap room for a big free agent signing in the summer of 2018. The newly acquired Trevor Booker is also an expiring contract and so the future is indeed, now. It really is that simple.
Best case
The Sixers land the biggest fish in the 2018 free agency window, LeBron James. Joel Embiid continues to put his injury history in the past to become the best big man in the league, and Ben Simmons maintains his current trajectory. Markelle Fultz and Robert Covington become lethal shooting options to complement them. A 10-year championship window that puts all of Danny Ainge’s best efforts to waste.
Worst case
Embiid suffers more injury problems over the course of the 2017-18 season and free agents grow concerned about their ceiling without him. They struggle to acquire a big name and settle for secondary guys, and Embiid can’t buy a healthy season. Still, I believe Simmons, Fultz, and Saric can form a good enough core to be a playoff team.
Ceiling grade: A+
Floor grade: B
Youth depth grade: B+
Boston Celtics
Average youth squad age: 22.9
Potential franchise centerpieces: Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown.
Position distribution: 4 guards, 3 wings, 2 bigs
Much like the 76ers, the Boston Celtics have put themselves in position to win both now and in the future. Of course, their present appears a lot brighter than the City of Brotherly Love. They’ve been better than expected without Gordon Hayward, with Al Horford and Kyrie Irving combining to form one of the best duos through the first quarter of the season.
The most surprising aspect, though, is just how easily both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have stepped in to fill the void of Hayward. Keep in mind, Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley had their share of success in starting roles prior to this season, and to nullify those losses as well is truly impressive.
Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart have both had their shining moments this season, and so they probably won’t have to worry about the guard and wing positions for a while now.
This bodes well for future success as Al Horford enters the latter stages of his career, so frontcourt depth is probably their biggest area of concern.
What does the future hold?
Irving, Hayward, and Horford as the present will allow Tatum and Brown to ease into the stars they will eventually become. What will be interesting to see is if Irving’s pursuit of “perfecting his craft” and Hayward entering the fray from next season could impact the ceiling of Tatum and Brown. Either way, we’re probably looking at a bunch of incredible playoff series between the 76ers and Celtics over the next decade.
Best case
Tatum and Brown become among the best two-way players in the game while becoming legitimate threats to drop 30 on any given night. Brad Stevens continues to remain in Boston, Marcus Smart learns to shoot, and Semi Ojeleye and Guerschon Yabusele become consistent difference makers off the bench. Like the Sixers, they could be looking at a decade of elite-ness.
Worst case
Tatum and Brown struggle to acclimate playing off Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward and get jealous they’re not able to perfect their own craft. Yeah, I struggled to believe that as I typed it as well. This franchise seems destined to return to its glory days, something I’m sure the NBA would love. There’s no stopping that.
Ceiling grade: A+
Floor grade: A-
Youth depth grade: B
Toronto Raptors
Average youth squad age: 23.2 (T-oldest)
Potential franchise centerpieces: OG Anunoby
Position distribution: 2 guards, 3 wings, 4 bigs.
I admit, it is a bit strange to see Delon Wright as the senior-most youth member at just a couple of weeks older than Jonas Valanciunas. In the cases of the Lithuanian and Bruno Caboclo, they are victims of exposure. Just by virtue of being ever-present in the Raptors day-to-day proceedings and having all their flaws exposed for several years now, it pushes people to place ceilings on them and be held accountable for their NBA experience rather than their age. Wright has been around for less time, and despite being the oldest, is viewed as someone with just as high a ceiling as any of the kids 23 and under.
I see both sides of it. You want players to take advantage of the opportunity that’s given to them, but, in terms of assessment, you also want to be mindful of their age and the fact that everyone’s development timeline is different. I just find the difference in perception fascinating and merely wanted to point it out.
Anyway, this entire exercise makes the Raptors’ outlook a sobering thought relative to the rest of the division. Unless OG Anunoby becomes a superstar on the offensive end to complement his already stellar defense, the ceiling with the youth doesn’t look too high. It also brings a greater appreciation for the Bruno pick and why you really have to swing for the fences from time to time in the hopes of elevating the team’s ceiling.
What this group does have is maturity and winning environments that some of the aforementioned teams lack. To a degree, the maturity stems from the fact that they are a relatively older bunch. A winning environment also helps them to be more accepting of their roles, and look to maximize the opportunities given to them, rather than complain about playing time.
It may just be that their best days are with DeMar DeRozan driving and Kyle Lowry riding shotgun. At best, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl figure to be starters one day, but despite what some tweets may suggest, neither appear headed to the hall of fame on their current trajectory.
Poeltl possesses strong defensive potential but his offensive game is dependent on others creating for him. In a game that is growing more skilled by the minute, his shooting touch is a long way away from being reliable. Siakam shows a bit more on an individual basis, but struggles with his shot as well, currently at 51.9 per cent from the line and 18.5 per cent from downtown for his 78-game career.
What does the future hold?
The way Masai Ujiri has the salaries set up, it indeed looks as though he will look to see exactly what this young core possesses over the next couple of seasons. Fred VanVleet presents a dilemma with his expiring contract coming up on the back of looks to be an impressive sophomore campaign. What happens with Nogueira looks to be a bit of a mystery as well, but his overall inconsistency may push the front office to get a fresh face in. Whether it be the summer of 2019 or 2020, that’s when he’ll have to make big decisions on what to do with a Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka core, and what the core should be going forward.
The opportunity is there for these players to stake their claim, it’s just a question of who can maximize it. Not many would have had either of Lowry or DeRozan as franchise cornerstones five years ago.
Best case
OG Anunoby becomes a two-way beast. Kawhi Leonard comes to mind, but even he needed the developmental utopia that is San Antonio. Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl become as reliable as you can find two-way bigs, and Norman Powell finds his niche as the future shooting guard of the franchise. Wright would complete a formidable two-way starting five, but one whose ceiling is similar to the current iteration. Bruno becomes a rotation player?
Worst case
Anunoby is more 3-and-D than a dominant force at both ends of the court. The growth of Wright and Powell stagnates by virtue of having to play behind Lowry and DeRozan. Ditto for Siakam and Poeltl behind Ibaka and Valanciunas. Outside shooting becomes a major achilles heel for this core in a league that is now predicated on the jumper.
Ceiling grade: B+
Floor grade: C
Youth depth grade: A
