Could Blake Griffin change things? With Blake Griffin moving East, it’s possible that another team might contend for supremacy in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is currently in 9th place, 2.5 games back of 8th place Philadelphia, but only 7 games back of 3rd place Cleveland. With practically half a season to play, we should trust Kevin Garnett is his quiet confidence that anything…. might happen.
In all likelihood, the Pistons most likely won’t shoot to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They have a new team to integrate, losing some of their best players in Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley, and gaining a player unlike any Stan Van Gundy has ever coached. There will be growing pains, especially for a 1-in-4-out system into which Griffin is not an obvious fit. Regardless, the Pistons are a better team today than they were yesterday, and they will make the playoffs. They have the offensive dynamo that every team wants come playoff time.
So how will the Raptors match up against the new-look Pistons? The teams could very well meet in the first round of the playoffs. To investigate the matchup, it’s worthwhile to begin looking at Toronto’s previous matchups with the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers opted to start Griffin next to supergiant DeAndre Jordan, yet they consistently were able to post high offensive ratings due to Griffin’s playmaking ability. His ability to find smaller seams on the drive and pass than almost any other player his size will come in handy playing next to other supergiant Andre Drummond.
Since 2013-14 (the dawn of the Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan era), the Raptors have managed to squeak by with a 5-4 record against the Clippers. In the 7 games in which Griffin played, he was ungodly, averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists. He is too big for any wing and too fast for any big. He hasn’t played against Serge Ibaka as a Raptor, who will get the start defensively against Griffin. There is… of course, some history between the two. But in their all-time head-to-head statistics, Griffin has dominated, averaging 22 points (on over 50% shooting), 10 rebounds, and 4 assists. The man is matchup-proof.
One area the Pistons have effectively worsened is their shooting. Avery Bradly and Tobias Harris are terrific 3-point shooters, both canning over 38% of their attempts on the season. They are even better spot-up shooters, scoring 1.18 and 1.13 points per respective possession on such plays. They lead the team in points scored while shooting off the catch, both hitting 3s off the catch at around 40%. Tobias Harris also shot an outrageous (and unsustainable) 48.0% on pull-up 3s on more than 1 attempt per game. That difficult shot provided spacing to a relatively cramped roster.
Furthermore, the Pistons’ best offensive lineups came with either Tobias Harris or Anthony Tolliver (40% on 3s) playing the position Blake Griffin will now dominate. While Griffin is not a slouch behind the arc (shooting 34% on the year), he doesn’t provide the same spacing as Harris or Tolliver. The Pistons’ best hope at outscoring their opponents may be realized with Griffin as the only traditional big on the floor for the Pistons, next to Tolliver as the floor-spacing power forward, surrounded by other shooters. Would this be a problem for the Pistons, whose best player previous to acquiring Griffin – Drummond – wouldn’t be on the floor in those lineups?
More generally, how does Drummond fit in on an offence with Blake Griffin? His role this season has greatly expanded. He has eschewed his largely ineffective post-up game of seasons past to control the offence from the elbows, with cutters whirring around him like electrons around the nucleus of an atom. His assists are sky-high this season. The only problem is that Blake Griffin did that in Los Angeles. Will Drummond be content as a rim-running screener on offence, à la DeAndre Jordan? He hasn’t been happy confining his offence to rim-running in the past. Drummond has more skills than Jordan, but will he be able to use them with Griffin in the mix? Will their minutes be most effective when staggered, so that Van Gundy is able to offer 48 minutes with a passing big as the hub of his offence? One would think the team would be at its best with its two best players on the floor – we’ll see.
Another question: who are those other shooters that Stan Van Gundy requires for his 1-in-4-out system? Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard are shooting 44.0% and 43.0% respectively from 3. Langston Galloway is at 36.2%. But those players are not defensive studs, by any means. If those are the players upon whose shoulders rest Detroit’s playoff hopes, then Toronto will not be troubled in a potential matchup. Reggie Jackson is a passable shooter from distance, and his return will improve Detroit immeasurably, assuming his health. Without Jackson darting into the lane at will to toss up alley-oops to Drummond, the Pistons would be dead on arrival in a playoff matchup against the Raptors, even with Griffin’s added playmaking.
Even if the Pistons supercharge their offence by playing four out around Blake Griffin, the Raptors should have success against such small lineups. Jonas Valanciunas would feast against Blake Griffin, whose short arms disallow him from effectively protecting the rim. Per nba.com, players shoot only 2.5% worse around the rim with Griffin defending, which is poor for a big man. That number is comparable to Michael Beasley and Jahlil Okafor.
Los Angeles never found an effective small forward to play beside Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. They needed someone who could do everything: shoot, pass, and play defence, all without using many possessions (much like the Raptors). This same problem already seems to plague the Pistons, and this could be the death knell in a matchup against the Raptors.
Teams that have had success against the Raptors sported a massive wing who can trouble DeMar DeRozan. Think Otto Porter Jr., Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, or Paul George. The Pistons have nobody who can even approximate that kind of defence. Stanley Johnson would muck up the offence too much; he has not been a positive for the Pistons thus far this season. Reggie Bullock is probably closest, but he lacks the size, length, and quickness to stop DeRozan 1-on-1. Without a defender who can hope to trouble DeRozan without help, the Raptors would have a field day in a series.
Of course, despite sporting Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers until recently employed Chris Paul on their roster. They lost 5 of their 9 games against the Raptors since 2013-14 despite employing Paul; the Pistons have no such point god on their roster. This is just one more example to prove that the Raptors are a good team. The Pistons are improved with Griffin, but the Raptors remain the favourites come playoff time.
I have many questions about the Pistons, and they have months before the playoffs to smooth out the edges. But the roster doesn’t seem complete yet. If they are truly going to compete with the Raptors – whose roster has very few question marks – they most likely have more moves to make yet.
