Sacramento is one of the most fun teams to watch in the league. They’re fast, even if they’ve slowed somewhat over the past few months, and boast a stable of exciting players. De’Aaron Fox is turning into one of the league’s most promising point guards, and his ability to shoot from 0-100 mph is downright Westbrookian. Buddy Hield is one of the best shooters in the NBA, and Bogdan Bogdanovic probably hasn’t missed a shot since 2003, as far as I can tell. Still, the Kings are facing a crossroads for the soul of their season.
They have been playing poorly recently, and the Nets just stomped them in Brooklyn last night. Fox looked tired and a little banged up, probably due to the hectic pace at which he’s been playing all season. More importantly, the team veterans have been giving nothing recently. Iman Shumpert and Nemanja Bjelica start to help provide solidity to the Kings, but their production has cratered recently. Bjelica in particular played five minutes against Brooklyn, and for a shooting big, his shooting has been non-existent (9-for-33 or 27.3 percent in 2019). The Kings need a win, and they need it desperately. They don’t have their own pick in 2019, and they have no motivation to fall out of the playoff race.
Toronto is at the other end of the sliding scale. Leonard will take another day for load management, but the same situation didn’t stop the Raptors from slapping the Grizzlies last time out. The team is 9-2 without Leonard suiting up this year. The Raptors are valuing health over availability right now for Leonard, even as guys like Fred Van Vleet and Kyle Lowry suit up hurt. Writing about the dichotomy landed Eric Koreen of the Athletic in, err, hot water in his comment section. (You can read it here if you subscribe). One difference, of course, is that Leonard missed almost all of last year due to injury, so there’s a good reason why the Raptors are gambling more conservatively with his health than anyone else’s on the roster.
It is possible that there’s more to Leonard being held out of games than rest. He sat against Memphis despite it not being a back-to-back, and if Leonard sits tomorrow, there will be an argument to be made that this is more than rest. For now though, the team’s announcement that it’s load management, and not a left leg injury, is all the information we have.
As long as Toronto keeps winning, they have a strong argument to play or rest whomever they please. It is important to note that Toronto does need health right now more than anything. Even as Leonard sits for load management, CJ Miles’ hip seems to be healing, as his shot comes back to form. Lowry is still doing KLOE things, and the team says that his conditioning, not his injury, is hampering his jumper. The more he plays, the closer he gets to returning to peak Lowry. He is clearly still playing well these days, even if his jumper isn’t falling. Valanciunas is also on the way soon, even though there’s no definitive timeline for now.
You can read the full preview here. It includes a conversation with Tony Xypteras of SB Nation’s Sactown Royalty. The game tips at 7:00 EST on TSN for TV and SN590 for radio.
Toronto updates:
The Raptors have already ruled out OG Anunoby (personal), Jonas Valanciunas (injury), and Kawhi Leonard (rest). Here’s the probable depth chart.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright
SG: Fred Van Vleet, Norman Powell, Patrick Mccaw
SF: Danny Green, CJ Miles, Malachi Richardson
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Serge Ibaka, Greg Monroe
Sacramento Updates:
Last night, Bjelica played five minutes against the Nets and didn’t re-enter the game. His spot in the rotation is worth monitoring.
Update: Fox, Bjelica, and Shumpert will all sit. Lotta, lotta starters out here.
PG: De’Aaron Fox, Yogi Ferrell, Frank Mason III
SG: Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Ben McLemore
SF: Iman Shumpert, Justin Jackson, Troy Williams
PF: Nemanja Bjelica, Marvin Bagley III, Skal Labissiere, Zach Randolph, Wenyen Gabriel
C: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos, Harry Giles
Assorted:
- The most recent Open Gym Episode is great fun. It includes some Siakam and Leonard highlights from their career high scoring nights, as well as some audio from both. It features the return of an old friend, who apparently doesn’t text OG back. Most importantly, it has lots and lots of the cutest of Raptor babies.
- The time has passed for fan voting for all-stars, which means that it is now up to coaches and media to decide who of Lowry, Siakam, and Ibaka joins Leonard in the all-star game. (You can read a great argument for Ibaka’s inclusion published by Samson Folk right here on RR). In the most recent return, Leonard was second among frontcourt players in the East, and Siakam eighth, while Lowry placed sixth among guards. The starters will be revealed on Thursday, January 24, and Leonard has a great chance to be named a starter. The rest of the all-stars will be announced the following Thursday, January 31.
- On that note, Zach Lowe published his all-star picks. He (of course) has Leonard starting, and he decides on Lowry as another pick but not Siakam. He has some words on both:
- “Lowry pops up near the top of most advanced stats leaderboards. Those numbers capture Lowry’s peculiar floating value. He’s a pest on defense, taking charges, switching at the right moment, and getting his hands on the ball.He is constantly moving in productive ways on offense. Teams fear his shooting, and follow him everywhere — uncluttering the lane. He cuts at the right time, and has a knack for finding offensive rebounds. He makes the proper pass, instantly. Some come three or four steps before a shot. Those passes — the ones that set off a cascade of ball movement — can be more important than assists or hockey assists.Lowry does good things every second he’s on the floor, even when you’re not looking. That’s rare. No one else in this group can match his two-way value.”
- “Advanced numbers favor Siakam over almost all of these guys. I couldn’t get there. There is something wild about his playmaking that I don’t 100 percent trust yet. He’s a clear third wheel when Toronto is healthy. The track record tiebreaker works against him.”
The Line:
Vegas has Toronto at -9.5, which feels fair given Toronto being hotter, better rested, and at home. It opened at -10.5, before moving to -11, and then reversing course back to -9.5 when Leonard’s not playing was announced. The over-under is 229.
