Pre-game news and notes: To change or not to change

Outcomes of basketball games are both binary and non-binary. On one hand, you either win or lose. Simple. But things can always be worse in a loss, or things can always be better in a win. It’s that distinction that spawned two seemingly opposite takeaways from myself and Samson Folk. I said ‘the Raptors changed little and were fine’ in my piece. Samson, alternatively, said ‘here’s what has to change’ in his. We’re both right. (I could never disagree with him, and this is really as close as I’ll come.) The Raptors won game one, and by a large margin. Why adapt when you’re winning anyway? On the other hand, there’s easy and low-hanging fruit, in terms of improvement. Just because you’re rich doesn’t mean you wouldn’t bend over to pick up a $20 bill you find lying on the ground.

The obvious change for Toronto is to tether Marc Gasol to Joel Embiid’s time on the floor. Gasol is a behemoth, possibly (definitely) stronger than Embiid, and a far better defensive option than Serge Ibaka. The difference is clear in the matchup numbers. In 29 possessions Gasol spent defending Embiid, Embiid shot 1-for-8 and scored 3 points. The Sixers scored 0.97 points per possession over that time. In 26 possessions Ibaka spent defending Embiid, Embiid shot 4-for-9 and scored 13 points. The Sixers scored 1.19 points per possession over that time.

So it’s obvious where Toronto can improve. But where can Philadelphia find extra points?

One important area will be in pace of play. The Sixers only managed 13 fastbreak points to Toronto’s 21, but playing with pace could help the Sixers. Simmons is a monster on the break, and early paint touches could free Redick for some open triples. (To get out in transition, the Sixers will need to get some stops.) Of course, adding pace to the game could hurt Philadelphia, as Toronto is the best transition team in the league. Usually, underdogs want to limit the number of possessions in a game and get lots of triples up. Neither a slow pace nor distance shooting is Philadelphia’s strength, so they’re kind of uniquely made to be a favourite and not an underdog. It’s a tough balance that Brown will surely be pondering in advance of game two.

With Gasol locking up Embiid and Siakam destroying Butler, Philly really didn’t have anywhere to throw the ball for easy points. There was no simple way to break down Toronto’s defense. Philadelphia’s scripted actions didn’t work to perfection, either.

Toronto defended all JJ Redick-centric actions with forethought and decision. When Redick was used as the screener, Toronto frequently switched early to deny his slip out to the 3-point line. It’s possible to do that when every Toronto player, especially Lowry, can defend Philadelphia’s giant guards and wings either in the post or on the drive. Coop covered this, as well as other tactical concerns, in great detail here.

Philadelphia could find easier points in running more dribble hand-offs between Embiid and Redick, as they did coming out of halftime. Redick got up four shots in the first half and five in the first three minutes of the third quarter. It was clear that the gameplan was to turn to more scripted sets. (I asked Redick if that was intentional, and he denied it, but I’m running with this idea anyway.) They weren’t all Redick in dribble hand-off in the third, though. His third quarter attempts came via a Butler hand-off, a Simmons drive in transition, a dribble hand-off that Redick rejected, a dump-off pass from Butler in transition, and an off-ball screen from Embiid. That variance will be more important than anything for Philadelphia.

It’s not like Toronto will fold if the Sixers run a million floppy actions with Redick and Embiid. Toronto is too smart. Even when Toronto is beat, they have ways to take anything good away from the offense.

Toronto is tough when they are locked in defensively + rotating. Floppy action for Redick, watch Danny Green. Sees FVV is beat and leaves Harris to show help on Redick’s catch. Redick finds Harris but Kawhi rotates to him to run off the line, Green comes back in on the drive. pic.twitter.com/8gXFwsFRWP

— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) April 29, 2019

Also important, Gasol is elite at defending those dribble hand-off actions. He’s great at sniffing out the proper action and not giving Embiid leeway with fake hand-offs, which Ibaka fell for in game one. Gasol always hedges high against Redick to disallow the shot. But his cheetah hands are so spectacular at tipping passes that Embiid can’t usually get a clean pass through to Redick. Lowry complemented Gasol for that at shootardound, saying Gasol and Chuck Hayes have the two best hands among bigs that he’s seen. Gasol creates plenty of turnovers out of those plays, but he also slows the pass so that the rotations can actually reach Embiid in time before he receives the ball. Gasol is elite at defusing Philadelphia’s floppy actions.

If Philly is going to count on guys like Green and Gasol to make mistakes, they’re gonna be searching a long time for easy looks. But scripted sets are probably a better option against Toronto than Butler or Embiid going it alone. Redick scored 12 points in those first three minutes of the third. Redick-Embiid dribble hand-offs will produce relatively high efficiency looks for Philadelphia with relative consistency, but they need to keep Toronto guessing.

Philadelphia has ways to improve offensively, but Toronto has space to improve defensively. Call it a wash. The Raptors, on the other hand, have a very simple offensive plan. It’s not hard to score when no Sixer can defend Leonard or Siakam in isolation. Siakam and Leonard are inevitable on the offensive end. Siakam has been the league’s best post player in the playoffs, scoring 1.5 points per possession on 2.0 attempts per game. It’s clear that no Sixer can defend Siakam one-on-one, as he finished 3-for-3 against Jonah Bolden, 4-for-4 against Butler, and 5-for-8 against Harris.

However, it’s not like the Sixers can bend their defense to account for Siakam in space. They were too busy trying to stop Leonard, who scored a playoff career high 45. Toronto pounded Philadelphia’s defensive weaknesses over and again with Danny Green continually screening for Leonard. That brought Redick into the play. Redick can’t contest Leonard’s shot if he plays high on the screen and can’t stay with Leonard on the drive if they switch. Leonard will find a fantastic scoring chance whenever Redick is on the floor for Philly, and like a veteran team, Toronto continually scratched at that wound, opening it time and again. If Redick is unplayable defensively, the Sixers have no chance of finding offense.

Ben Simmons is the only Sixer who can capably defend Siakam or Leonard alone, and there’s only one of him. Like I said, it’s very easy for Toronto to manufacture an efficient shot whenever they want. So there are a lot of potential changes, and I’m sure there’s tons that I haven’t recognized, but the extent to which they’ll allow the Sixers back into the series is up for debate.

Toronto Injury Updates

Kyle Lowry (finger) is fine. OG Anunoby (appendectomy) remains out, and he doesn’t have a timetable for his return.

PG: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Jeremy Lin

SG: Danny Green, Patrick McCaw, Jodie Meeks

SF: Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Malcolm Miller

PF: Pascal Siakam

C:  Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Eric Moreland

Philadelphia Injury Updates

Mike Scott (plantar fasciitis) remains out. Joel Embiid is a gametime decision, as he missed shootaround this morning with the stomach flu, which is on top of left knee soreness. Kawhi Leonard shot 5-for-19 in game three against Orlando while recovering from the flu, so it can affect players fairly heavily. Assume he’s playing, as Philadelphia needs a lot from Embiid. With Scott out, Brett Brown went with Furkan Korkmaz and Jonah Bolden as the beneficiaries, and he explained the choice of Korkmaz as primarily for his shooting. He only shot 1-for-4 from deep, so look to see which of Philly’s unproven depth pieces will play minutes off the bench as bigs.

PG: Ben Simmons, TJ McConnell

SG: JJ Redick, James Ennis, Furkan Korkmaz

SF: Jimmy Butler, Jonathon Simmons

PF: Tobias Harris, Zhaire Smith

C: Joel Embiid, Boban Marjanovic, Jonah Bolden, Amir Johnson, Greg Monroe

Rotation notes

• Toronto’s starters, as usual were brilliant. They were a plus-17 in 21 minutes. Toronto could give them even more run in game two. As long as they win their minutes by double figures, Toronto will win their games.
• Philadelphia’s starters were also fine. Brett Brown uses a unique substitution pattern that sees early subs in the mid-first, which allows him to roll the starters at the top of the second and fourth quarters. That’s when most teams, like Toronto, have the most number of bench players on the floor. As a result, the Sixers starters were a +3 in 20 minutes. They decidedly did not win their minutes against Toronto’s starters.
  • Basically, Toronto’s starters beat Philly’s starters, and Philly’s starters beat Toronto’s transitional lineups. The third matchup, the one that swung the game, was the minutes wherein Toronto’s transitional lineups smacked Philly’s transitional lineups. Whichever team wins two out of three sections will win the game.
• Toronto’s second-most used lineup, the Leonard-at-power forward lineup, remained a positive for the Raptors. Lowry-VanVleet-Powell-Leonard-Ibaka were +3 in 5 minutes, which brings their net rating in the playoffs to +50.4, the best of any group that’s played in both series. They are the second-most used Toronto rotation in the playoffs, behind only hte starters. They actually have a higher net rating than Toronto’s starters in the playoffs, which is incredible. As long as they continue to shoot well from deep, there’s no reason this lineup won’t continue to win its minutes.
  • If this lineup remains so dominant, will Nurse even use OG Anunoby when he returns? It’s possible that Anunoby could take a few minutes from Jodie Meeks or Powell here or there, but it’s probable that the back-up power forward spot is firmly Leonard’s. Leonard is so versatile, and Nurse wants to maximize his minutes. Anunoby probably won’t cut into this lineup’s run even when he does return.
• Toronto again closed the first quarter with a VanVleet-Meeks-Powell backcourt alongside Siakam and Ibaka. They were outscored by three in 73 seconds, which is the definition of treading water. Nurse is playing that rotation to hold the fort, not to build the lead, which is not a maximization of game management. This lineup could be a ticking time bomb, and it could give up an 8-0 run in one minute to close the quarter. Philadelphia is already trying to put their starters in that section of the game, against Toronto’s worst lineup, so watch to see if Toronto adapts or trusts that its rotation pattern will continue to work.
• Philadelphia’s bench is almost completely unplayable. Ennis was fine, despite taking some questionable shots. Otherwise… what’s even there? Simmons should be Philadelphia’s backup center, which is funny, because the Sixers employ four actual backup centers. None can play in this one. The Sixers really should only run a six, maybe seven man rotation to have any chance in the series.
  • Simmons had little success as the ball-handler, with no Sixer screener able to leverage the threat of a shot to create space for Simmons’ drives. Brown could try to unlock Simmons further by using him as the screener, which is yet another reason to use him as the backup center.

Assorted

The Line

Toronto is -7, so the beatdown in game one really didn’t change things. The over-under is 220.