It’s nice to play a team from Florida that isn’t Orlando, as the Raptors welcome the Miami Heat to Scotiabank Arena this evening with second in the East up for grabs.
The Heat enter the game as one of the league’s hottest teams (no pun intended) winning 8 of their last 10 games, with the 7th highest Net Rating in the NBA at +6.0. While they are near middle of the pack scoring the basketball with the 12th ranked offensive rating (109.5), they are the 7th ranked defensive with a rating of 103.5.
Outside the standard numbers on both sides of the ball, the one number that matters most is their record of 14-5, just one game back of Toronto. Yes, standings don’t particularly matter at this point isn’t he season with so many games left, but a Raptors win would help to further cement themselves as a top tier team in the East.
Miami is one of the league’s best rebounding teams, is long and versatile on defence, has a glut of guards performing at a high level (including two rookies in Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn), and lead the NBA in true shooting percentage. While they don’t take a lot of long distance shots, they make the most of them by shooting 38.9 percent from deep (3rd best).
When they do miss the attack the glass, collecting 28.4 percent of their misses. Off of offensive rebounds though they only score 12.4 second chance points per game.
Where the game could be decided is in the fast break, where Toronto is currently the league’s most dangerous fast break team scoring 19.6 points per game when they get in the open court.
Miami meanwhile has the highest turnover rate in the NBA, giving the ball away 18.4 times a game. Somehow they are still top 10 in opponent fast break points scored. What will break first, Miami’s transition defence or Toronto’s transition offence?
My expectation is that the Heat task Bam Adebayo with the assignment of trying to slow down Siakam. Bam offers the size and length to bother Siakam in the post, while also having the lateral quickness to keep with him on the perimeter.
With Bam on Siakam, Miami will have no other choice than to have Meyers Leonard on Gasol. The Raptors will do everything they can do reverse this match-up and allow Siakam the opportunity to punish Leonard.
OG meanwhile will get the call to try and slow down noted Raptors killer Jimmy Butler. Butler has been a thorn in the franchise’s side since his days in Chicago, putting up massive scoring numbers and hitting timely shots.
By his own standards Butler is having a pedestrian season scoring 18.8 points per game, with one of the worst field goal percentages of his entire career (41.5) and a career low 23.8 percent. Where he has struggled scoring efficiently he has been one of the driving forces of facilitating offence, leading the Heat with 6.3 assists per game.
One of the big questions surrounding the Raptors to date has been their struggles against winning teams, having not lost to a below .500 team yet. A win against Miami won’t remove those concerns for some, but it would certainly be a check in the right box and further the Raptors drive up the standings.
Prediction: Raptors 109 – Heat 98.
