Five Storylines for the Week of December 16th

Despite reports that the sky was falling in Raptors-land, the Raptors bounced back last week with a 2-1 record, proving that they are, in fact, still really good. The Raptors only loss came against Kawhi Leonard’s Los Angeles Clippers in his return to Toronto.

The Raptors are now 17-8 with the fifth-best record in a crowded Eastern Conference.

They have proven to be in the upper-echelon of Eastern Conference contenders but are yet to definitely prove whether or not they can consistently defeat good teams.

Next week won’t be much of a test, though, as three of their four contests come against losing teams outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, three will be played at Scotiabank Arena where the Raptors are 10-3, and the one good team they play, the Dallas Mavericks, will likely be without their No. 1 option, Luke Doncic, due to a sprained ankle.

Here is a breakdown of the Raptors upcoming schedule:

Monday, December 16th at 7:30pm: Cleveland Cavaliers (6-20) @ Toronto Raptors
Wednesday, December 18th at 7:00pm: Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons (11-15)
Friday, December 20th at 7:30pm: Washington Wizards (7-17) @ Toronto Raptors
Sunday, December 22nd at 3:30pm: Dallas Mavericks (17-8) @ Toronto Raptors
Combined winning percentage of 40.6

Let’s look ahead to the five most interesting storylines for the upcoming week:

1. Are Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka really back?

Since returning from injury at the beginning of the month, Lowry and Ibaka have really struggled to find their footing, and it hurt a Raptors team that was really clicking before they returned. Finally, both Lowry and Ibaka had their first good game against the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday.

Lowry put up 17/4/6 and was a +7 on the evening, although he is still struggling to shoot the ball. Since returning from injury, Lowry is shooting 29.9 percent from the field and 21.3 percent from three.

Ibaka, meanwhile, had 12/12/1 and was a +3 on the evening, his first + game since December 3rd against the Utah Jazz.

It’s a good sign for a Raptors team that needs its veterans to fill holes no one else on the team can, but are Lowry and Ibaka really back? And will they continue to play well against good defenses?

Lowry is usually the Raptors most reliable player because even when he isn’t shooting well, he is a winning player that does the little things to help his team. This season, though, the Raptors have actually been better when Lowry is off the floor. The difference between the Raptors offensive rating and that of their opponents is 6.9 points worse with Lowry on the floor, which is crazy considering last season they were 12.2 points better with Lowry on the floor. Lowry’s PER and Win Shares are also down this season.

Obviously, a lot has contributed to those decreases including the Raptors playing insanely well when Lowry was injured as well as Lowry’s shooting numbers dropping of late.

But, as I mentioned earlier, Lowry is usually an analytics darling due to his ability to do the little things that help his team win. He’s still a winning player — Saturday’s win against the Nets was evidence of that — but this season has been different for Lowry. He hasn’t even been the team’s best point guard.

Ibaka, meanwhile, certainly hasn’t been the team’s best center. After a hot start to the season, Ibaka has really struggled since returning from injury, and it’s the same inconsistency that has plagued him since joining the Raptors. His on/off numbers are even worse than Lowry’s, as the team is 13.6 points worse with him on the court than off.

This upcoming week should be a good opportunity for both Lowry and Ibaka to find their rhythm and get back to where they need to be for the Raptors to be successful. The real test comes next week, though, when they will play legitimate teams and have a chance to prove they are really back to their early-season form.

2. Patrick McCaw, making people mad

After missing the start of the season due to knee surgery, McCaw returned to the lineup on Wednesday against the Clippers where he saw 10 minutes of action. Nick Nurse bumped up his playtime against the Nets on Saturday, where McCaw played 29 minutes and closed the game in place of OG Anunoby.

Despite averaging just 1.0 point in his first two games back, Nurse clearly trusts McCaw for his defense and playmaking ability. As someone who won’t force his shot and can be trusted to make the right reads, he is a good fifth option on offense.

Plus, with Fred VanVleet out of the lineup, it makes some sense that McCaw — a guard himself — is covering up for some of those minutes.

But it also means that in addition to Anunoby, Terrance Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have also seen their minutes even further reduced in the last two games. That has upset some fans, which is justifiable given how good those two have been throughout the season and given that they both likely have higher ceilings than McCaw, who can’t really shoot.

It will be interesting to see how Nurse divvies up the minutes once VanVleet returns to the court, and whether or not McCaw continues to rise in the depth-chart.

3. Powell starting vs. off the bench

This season, Powell has started 14 games and come off the bench for 11. In the games he has started, Powell is averaging 6.1 more minutes, 6.5 more points, 0.8 more assists, and is shooting 5.5 better percentage points from the field and 11.0 better percentage points from three.

The Raptors most-used lineup this season is Anunoby, Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, VanVleet, and Powell, and it has also been their most successful, outscoring teams by 14.8 points per 100 possessions.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why Powell has been so much better and more consistent as a starter than coming off the bench, but it’s likely less of a mental thing and more so having to do with who he plays with.

In the starting lineup, Powell gets to play with multiple playmakers including Gasol, Siakam, and either VanVleet or Lowry. That means the offense runs through those three guys and Powell is asked to do less offensively, namely spot up in the corners or slash to the rim in the half-court, allowing him to make less difficult decisions with the ball.

Playing with the starters also enables Powell to do more damage in transition, where he is an elite scorer, because the starters (especially Lowry) make an effort to play fast and run the floor after stops. And considering how good they are defensively, they get a lot of stops.

This isn’t to say Powell is better than VanVleet, or anything, but despite Nurse telling Powell his role on the team involves coming off the bench, I think there are reasons to reconsider. Playing Powell in the starting unit not only gets the best out of him, but it has been really successful overall. And bringing VanVleet off the bench could stabilize an inconsistent bench unit.

VanVleet has been one of the best Raptors all season, and he would still close games in this scenario. It’s just something for the coaching staff to consider.

4. Tightening the screws

The Raptors, who haven’t been at their best these past few weeks, need to use this upcoming week as an opportunity to tighten the screws and get back to playing like themselves. Not just because they can realistically get four wins, which could bring them back near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, but also in order to prepare for next week.

Next week, the Raptors will play the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics twice (including a Christmas game), and the Oklahoma City Thunder. It is one of the toughest weeks remaining on their schedule and a real test of the Eastern Conference elite.

The Raptors should use this week, which projects to be much easier, to bring everyone up to speed on both ends of the floor, especially with VanVleet likely to return to the fold.

Also, if Nurse wants to experiment with different lineup combinations, this is the time to do it as the margins will become much smaller against better teams next week.

5. Dinwiddie dunking

I really don’t have a fifth storyline, but anytime I can poke fun at the Philadelphia 76ers, I do so. So check out Spencer Dinwiddie dunking all over Tobias Harris and the Nets’ bench reaction: