Spring has always been my favorite time of the year – the weather gets warmer and the summer lies on the discernible horizon. Sandwiched in between are the playoffs which offer a bridge between seasons, and when the Raptors happen to be good, this is a time to relish. The Sixers matchup has the backstory of Vince’s Game 7 heartbreaking miss and Kawhi’s Game 7 give-you-a-joy-heart-attack make. Much more recently, it’s been about the rise of the Raptors who keep finding a better version of themselves every time they probe. This team is challenging old-established norms and having success while doing so. It’s facing a team that is, ironically, on the complete opposite end of the experimentation spectrum.
After spending years tinkering and tanking, the final version of the Sixers sees their fate put in the hands of James Harden’s one-on-one ability and whether he has enough legs to not leave his shots too short. I feel cheated out of a climax. I thought there would be something more majestic coming out of the Sixers experiment, but it looks like all they’ve gotten out of the last 10 years is Joel Embiid locked to a contract. He’s an all-time great, but was there a need for all the fuss about the Philadelphia front office’s innovation?
I looked to US media for some Sixers-Raptors coverage to see what the consensus on the series was, and came across zero actual analysis of how the teams matchup. Most of the attention went to Matisse Thybulle’s vaccination status or Joel Embiid’s anticipated scoring domination, which is hardly proven to be a certainty. Again, I’m feeling cheated, this time out of a proper build-up for a series that sees the Raptors representing a new age of the East go up against an incumbent in adversity. Instead of examining just how the Sixers might stop Pascal Siakam, both with and without Thybulle, we got pundit calls of a long series going the Sixers way, but with just enough caveats to take any conviction out of them, making them plain boring.
For me this is easily the most intriguing series in the East for a few different reasons. From the Raptors perspective, the biggest question mark is whether Pascal Siakam’s regular season performance translates into the postseason. Playoff performances are like milestones in a career. They offer periodic measurements which comment on the progression of a player as a whole by evaluating them in a pressure cooker where games count and opposition attention converges. Siakam’s last foray into the postseason saw an embarrassing display against the Celtics which reminded many of the playoff shortcomings of previous Raptor stars like DeMar DeRozan and Chris Bosh. It was a performance that needs to be overwritten, if not from history, then from our collective consciousness.
The odds are good for Siakam because nobody in Philadelphia has proven to handle the lanky forward, whose finishing has tightened, decision-making improved and generally appears better equipped to read and react to defensive variations. In three games against Philadelphia he’s averaged 30.3 points against the Sixers, a mark that is only bettered by his two games against Denver where he scored 34 a game. He shot over 50% against the Sixers while getting to the line over 7 times a game. All this while averaging 8.3 assists and 8.7 rebounds. That is a complete performance with the assist numbers making the outlook positive in the event of Philadelphia forcing the ball out of his hands.
If Nick Nurse decides to start Gary Trent Jr. against James Harden, it would set up quite a final exam for Trent. He’s been lauded for his defensive work all season, which came as a surprise to many including those like myself who have backed him from day one. Despite Harden looking like a man who has lost a step, Trent going up against one of the all-time great offensive players is an opportunity to formally state his case as a defensive player. The Raptors will likely switch on Harden screens and it will be a point of focus on who the Sixers target on the perimeter. From my view, Harden going against Fred VanVleet poses too much of a risk for the Sixers on account of VanVleet’s quick hands and ability to anticipate the offensive player’s next action. VanVleet isn’t the quickest of guys but neither is Harden. It also may be a questionable strategy to go against the perimeter length of Precious Achiuwa, Scottie Barnes or even OG Anunoby, making Trent the likely potential target. This is both exciting for Trent but also worrisome as players like Harden need just a spark to start a forest fire, so early defense is key.
Trent’s importance increases in the face of zone defense. The Raptors are 21st in the league in three point shooting percentage (23rd in percentage of shots that are threes) and do have a tendency to dry up from the outside. Their outside shooters can at best be classified as streaky with Siakam, Anunoby and Trent all undergoing cold stretches. Fred VanVleet’s injury can be pointed to as an explanation for his poor shooting of late. Trent is the man who I’m focusing on because at the end of the day, he is the one with the license to shoot from outside and should be taking clean looks. If they go in, he’ll address the Raptors biggest offensive weakness, but if he doesn’t and the defense dips, it could be a disaster of a series.
The Raptors are also a dynamic defensive team that doesn’t have a singular predictable strategy but continuously inspect and adapt to the situation. Whether it be matchup zones, high presses or diversified double teaming schemes, you can count on Nick Nurse to not freeze in the face of any Philly onslaught. In this regard he is the complete opposite of Dwane Casey. Whereas the now-Pistons coach waited between games to adjust, Nurse experiments on the fly which is harder to react to.
Nurse has Joel Embiid’s proverbial number. However, I don’t know if the Raptors truly need to shut Embiid down to win this series. There are two main things that I’d like to see happen to Embiid. First, the Raptors need to put him in perimeter positions where he has to defend near the three-point line, taking him away from his shot-blocking role. This can be fairly easily done because every Raptors F/C has a face-up game with the exception of Khem Birch. This is also a situation where Embiid can pick up cheap fouls, and if the other Sixers aren’t pulling their weight, frustration and overreaching can quickly deteriorate morale. Usually, you might put an opposing big in pick ‘n roll situations with different ball-handlers, but the Raptors pose such a lame threat on the pick’ n roll that it would play into Philly’s hands. This was one of the topics discussed in this morning’s video with Louis:
Second, I’d like to see Fred VanVleet be the doubler. In my mind I’m picturing Michael Jordan coming from the weak side and stripping an unbeknownst Karl Malone. Embiid can pass out of doubles well, but this is where the Raptors length can cause problems in the passing lanes. Sending doubles through lankier guys like OG or Barnes decreases the danger as you’re taking away length from the passing lanes and bringing it closer to Embiid, who at his height, can negotiate doubles closer to him. Mixing these doubles up with good man-defense from Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Khem Birch can do enough to quell the Embiid tide.
Finally, the half-court offense. There will be stretches where the series will slow down and settle into a half-court affair. Not having a high-performing pick ‘n roll, the Raptors have relied on Pascal Siakam using his superior quickness and finishing reach to create offense by driving against seemingly set and established defenses. It is a testament to how well Siakam has played that he doesn’t need a head of steam to be effective offensively and can impact from dead ball situations. We can trust Doc Rivers to plan for this, so we need an alternate scoring option and this is where I big up OG Anunoby’s post-game one last time. It is an underused weapon that doesn’t have a lot of data out there for defenses to scout. OG’s post-up game can be a source of good offense for 5-7 possessions a game, giving Philly a worry that they haven’t worried about before.
And finally finally, can we get a bench hero please? I’m talking about a performance from one of those guys that’s supposed to pan out but just hasn’t yet: Malachi Flynn, Yuta Watanabe, Armani Brooks or Svi Mykhailiuk. Can just one of these guys have a series where Nick Nurse can count on them to provide good minutes, i.e., good defense, efficient shot-making and turnover-free. It might be too much to ask, but even without this, the Raptors have a fighting chance.
