The term effort has really, really gotten a lot of run in the middle of the Raptors season. You probably couldn’t find a team in the NBA whose schemes and playstyle rely on it more heavily. Talent runs the NBA, of course, but the Raptors saw an opportunity to invest in lunch pails, and they did so. When the lunch pails are left at home, let’s say, things unravel rather quickly.
Cleaning the Glass ranks all their stats by percentiles, so even if you don’t understand a term or stat that well, you can understand its standing in the league. Transition frequency is measured for every team, every game — how often your team gets out in transition — and the Raptors first 10 games featured eight games above the 90th percentile (including the 100th percentile game of the season so far) and none below the 70th. Lots of transition, which is tremendous offense.
In the last 10 games? None above the 90th percentile, and six of them below the 40th percentile. The Raptors never came anywhere close to that in the 2021-22 season. A foundational aspect of their team disappeared. And when it comes to this version of the Raptors who really struggle in the halfcourt? They have to score in transition. Not only to sustain their offense, but to continue to allow their defense to get set on the other end.
After the loss to the Grizzlies, I asked Nick Nurse about what’s changed defensively for them to allow more rim attempts this season:
“Yeah, our biggest issue defensively is we’re playing transition defense far too frequently. Right? They’re coming out at us off a miss shot or turnover way too much. Right? You just can’t constantly be in that mode. Right? Our lack of scoring and our lack of shooting has put our defense in a huge bind just early on and that you can handle, but you can’t handle it over and over and over and over and over and over and over again to be constantly on the run defensively. Right? You’ve got to get your defense set up. So that’s probably my biggest concern right now.”
While I don’t think that’s the whole answer — and I’m sure Nurse doesn’t think so either, he was probably just particularly frustrated with bad transition defense — as the Raptors point of attack defense has slipped, some of the rotations have come slower, and Precious Achiuwa is a big piece of their defense when it’s working properly. The Raptors have been running from (literally) their offensive limitations for some time. It’s been catching up to them lately.
Last night, the Raptors held the Suns in grid-lock, with no transition opportunities to speak of. An ode to Fezzik of The Princess Bride: “We face each other as god intended. Sportsmanlike. No tricks. No weapons. Skill against skill alone.”
Tricks did come into play, however, as the Raptors pulled out some (not all!) stops against Deandre Ayton. Some fronting, some pressure on the catch, showing bodies, and a switchable duo of Scottie Barnes and O.G. Anunoby quelled the impending doom that frontcourts had been confronting the Raptors with in their previous two games. An improvement in approach, sure, but a complete turnaround in all the relevant statistics? Surely there was more buy-in?
Much was made of Nurse’s comments regarding a 20-minute meeting pre-game where only he spoke, and after the game I asked him if it’s harder to preach the more specific, technical stuff, or the effort. One seems inherent almost, with no barrier to entry, but once it disappears how do you get it back? “That’s a good question. That was kind of part of today, too, is the technical stuff doesn’t matter.” Nurse said after the win. “It’s like 0.05 percent if this effort isn’t there. It doesn’t matter unless the effort’s there and when you get the effort you can start doing stuff. Like I’m always saying, play really hard and execute the schemes, that’s what we did tonight for the most part.”
Even so, you can just make the case that performing the gameplan against these Suns is significantly easier than doing it against the Grizzlies. Chris Paul can reach deep into his bag of tricks and glean small advantages, make clever reads, hit tough shots – but he’s not going to hit the turbo button and shift the Raptors defense repeatedly like some players have been doing. The slow, and more methodical game of Paul, mixed with the somewhat finesse driven game of Ayton? That’s a recipe for success for the Raptors scheme. Players will have an easier time of crowding Paul, and the Raptors smaller frontcourt will have a better chance against Ayton on a possession by possession basis.
These are the interpretations, the considerations you have to apply when success isn’t the status quo. The Raptors are no longer in the ‘righting the ship’ scenario. Skepticism will meet any temporary successes, because they have been just that, temporary. This team has to carve out a brand new route, make it its own, and sail it consistently.
The problem is that there has been very little consistency out of anyone not named Pascal Siakam or O.G. Anunoby. Talking to a few scouts around the league and other analysts, the people know just how good Siakam has become as an offensive engine and all around star. Anunoby’s defense is stamped as well. If things break right, they’ll both have hardware of sorts to commemorate these seasons of theirs. However, if this team can’t house their talents along with all the others in a more meaningful capacity? These things fall to the wayside, and so too do the teams.
We can’t know right now, but the tale of two teams: is it about two versions of the Raptors? One good, one bad, and both within reach? Or, is it about the types of teams they’re playing? The types of considerations of mediocre squads. We’ll see.
Have a blessed day.
