Let’s all take a moment, shall we?
To be present. In the moment. For Pascal’s sorrow. For our own sanity.
No Houston tonight. No losing tight ones to Golden State or Phoenix or Utah. No failures against undermanned Milwaukee, Minnesota, or Boston before. No 12-point quarters. No thinking about who we could/should have traded or drafted. No talk about what we should or shouldn’t do in the coming days, weeks, months.
Let it all go. And focus on, in this very, singular moment, nothing but our beloved Toronto Raptors.
An All-Defensive Team player. An All-NBA player. An All-Star. A young, elite, high-volume shooter. A blossoming young modern Big. And a Rising Star.
Few teams can gloat of such riches.
So let’s savour it for at least a moment, shall we?
Let’s roll.
1. THE SCREAM
I’m not a big hand-in-the-face-shot-challenging guy. I find it a bit distasteful. In fact, as a shooter, I abhor it. It’s so very maddening to experience a dude ignoring your release point and going right after your eyes and field of vision. One of the few shows of decorum I expect.
I’m not a call out the “SHOT” dude on a closeout either. I know that’s under the guise of letting your teammates know to box out. But who are we kidding, it’s to frig with a shooter’s focus. Again, a bit beneath me.
I get getting the edge. Especially, at the professional level. If it’s not legal, if it’s grey, exploit it.
That’s, apparently, what Gary Trent Jr. decided to do the other night.
It was somewhat subtle – as far as plays in a game go. My brother and I saw it and immediately “rewound” (VHS terminology) to watch it again. To confirm that we did actually see something I’ve never seen done in an NBA game let alone any basketball game now that I think about it.
Worth a chuckle or two too.
And before I go on to describe what happened. As silly as it looked, I’m almost certain it worked.
Indulge me. I am going to describe it before I show it, to build the hilarity.
So, against Portland, towards the end of the second quarter, shot clock is at 11. Drew Eubanks swings the ball to Jerami Grant on the far wing, Grant drives. Pascal, more or less, has Grant covered, yet Precious Achiuwa, Eubanks’ defender, slides over to help. Which, I will say, also highlights one of Precious Achiuwa’s weaker abilities at the moment: recognizing when to stay home or not on helpside.
Grant boots it back to Eubanks and Precious sidles back over. No harm, no foul.
Gary, however, fulfilling his duty as help defender – with Anfernee Simons far above the three-point line – drops down, not to challenge Eubanks at the high post, not to swipe at the ball, not to put physical pressure on him, not to trap him, no, no, no.
To YELL.
Will Lou caught the moment.
The ultimate hilarity is that it worked. Eubanks looked, as Lou says, “Shook”. He pump fakes the open jumper and drives – which is never a good thing – into a turnover.
I’ve never seen the like. I’m also not sure he yelled any language. Replaying it a hundred times, it looks like a plain ol’ “YAAAAA!”, like Gary is trying to convince a Black Bear he’s the bigger threat.
Good stuff.
2. The Trade Debate: Up, Down, Around, and Back Again
Okay, did you take your moment?
I tried, I really tried.
But with the deadline less than a week away HOW CAN I THINK OF ANYTHING ELSE?
One friend texted me the most relatable summation:
“I need to be released from this purgatory.”
And purgatory it is. For us helpless fans and for us feverish speculators who see no clear path forward.
The season feels outta reach, but not entirely. Mostly, but not totally.
Do we full tank and demand a King’s ransom for the bulk of our lovelies?
A rebuild isn’t exactly ideal, or obvious, with guys like Pascal and Freddy in their prime and young’uns like Precious and Scottie surging.
A retool makes sense on the surface – trading one of O.G., Gary, Freddy or more – but then, again, what we’re sending out is, ultimately, what we still need. Teams acquiring one of the trio is less likely to send someone similar or equivalent. Making the ask all the more particular and challenging.
The myriad of directions each has their merits. And each tantalizing too. Some logical, some thrilling, some safe. Real personality test kind of stuff here.
And so – here comes my astrological sign – with all that said, as Rap Up producer, Keyane Haddad, and I determined Wednesday night on The Rap Up, it feels like the move is to do NOTHING.
Shocked?
I am.
It wasn’t too long ago, I was convinced Gary was gone. I never exactly wanted it, but thought it a surety. Then I was on the Freddy train. His D had faltered (still isn’t the same), his usage ballooned, and efficiency languished. His performances, while objectively good, felt dissonant to what the Raptors were trying to achieve; he wasn’t, from my perspective, playing winning Toronto Raptors basketball. Though, to be fair, few were.
That, of course, has changed over the last two weeks. Like Freddy had a coming to the light moment. Like he was the contestant in a What Not to Wear episode where Clinton and Stacy bring Freddy on and play his highlight reel for two minutes straight. And they both just kinda look at Freddy, Clinton frowning and Stacy with two hands on her hips in a disappointed posture, and Freddy sheepishly goes, “I had 40 though,” knowing full well that as good as it looked it wasn’t his true self.
The show, not to go completely off rails here, is about revealing your true self in a flattering, but, modest and natural way. We can ignore all the problematic parts of the show (bullying, consumerism, whitewashing, and so on) and appreciate the analogy for what it is. Freddy’s game is not about wearing stark colours that scream to others, “Look at how damn good I am”; it’s about the subtle way in which his game permutates from scoring to, distritribution, to scoring, to distribution, and so on. A trueism for most players: success for others is success for self.
Freddy first 29 games of the season:
37 minutes | 18 points | 46.6 EFG% | 6 assists | 1.8 TOs | 22 USG%
Freddy last 15 games of the season:
37 minutes | 22 points | 54 EFG% | 7.5 assists | 1.9 TOs | 22.6 USG%
The difference is stark. Same minutes. More points. Better shooting. And more distribution with the same number of turnovers and usage percentage.
It shows too. There has been much less of the dribble, dribble, dribble, dribble again, *shot clock at 3*, jack. Freddy’s supermanned at the appropriate times. The past week, Pascal, for example, has struggled. Freddy’s taken over. When others have thrived, Freddy has been less ball dominant, attacking at a cadence more in tune with the others.
It wasn’t so long ago, I was complaining about the exact opposite issue (#1). Freddy, now, is playing like an All-Star despite still shooting poorly, generally. His mid-range and at-rim finishing has tightened opening his game up well-beyond the three-pointer pull-up. For stretches, he, and he alone, has kept this fragile Toronto Raptors team in tact.
And, that, folks, is why, I might not trade Freddy any longer either.
3. The Trade Debate: Trading No One
So, I’ve already told you why I’m not trading O.G. I’ve been off Gary for a bit now. And I just told you why I’m not down to trade Freddy. That leaves nobody else.
I’m not addressing trading Pascal. Sorry, not doing it.
Scottie and Precious are, obviously, off the table.
Leaving no one. I’m trading No One.
Sounds absurd. Maybe it is. Maybe my sentimentality and extreme favourite team bias is colouring everything. Maybe.
But there’s plenty of logic too.
For one, what we’ve seen on this road trip, especially, is a team capable of competing with the very best in the NBA. Not always, but often.
And, typically, the losses have come from the Raptors’ inability to sustain themselves throughout 48 minutes of a game. That blame going, primarily, to the bench.
It’s the most obvious reason. One I’ve yammered on about since the preseason. The Raptors have the 3rd worst scoring bench in the league. The pattern repeats itself: either the bench barely plays and the starters gas by the end of the 4th or the bench plays and loses its minutes, the final score insurmountable.
There’s plenty of blame to go around: Nurse’s rotations, Masai and Bobby’s personnel choices, the Thad trade, Otto Porter Jr.’s injury, Banton and Flynn’s stagnation. Take your pick.
Point is. The blame is not on the starters. They keep games close, they just can’ t close them out – Toronto is last in the league in win percentage in close games. There have been a lot of fake comebacks. We’ve also seen a few incredible comebacks. A pattern has emerged (Lou Zatzman examines further). What we’ve consistently seen, though, is a team that competes for the majority of a game and deflates.
Hence, I argue, it is not the core that must be dismantled, but a bench that must be built.
4. The Trade Debate: Value in the Status Quo
All of what I’ve said, of course, is assuming there is no offer one-cannot-refuse brewing in the next few days.
I’ve heard ideas surrounding Orlando and New Orleans’ youth for Freddy. Or bidding wars for O.G. that may go to improbable ends.
I would definitely hear those out. Other than that, Toronto might be better off waiting.
To be clear, signing Gary and Freddy to longer-term deals is not just to run it back. In fact, it might give Toronto greater leverage in future trade markets.
As we saw with Kyle, sign-and-trade scenarios can pay dividends. Gary and Freddy could also become more valuable in a future trade with 3 or 4 years of additional service tacked on to their current contracts.
As Michael Grange and Blake Murphy of Sportsnet said,
“As Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy points out in his always-excellent trade deadline primer cap guide, Toronto could probably re-sign both Trent Jr. and VanVleet – depending on what their market value ends up being — and stay under the luxury tax, but just barely. At the moment, the combined ceiling would be $50 million. Moves to get out from money owed to Otto Porter Jr. or Khem Birch would open up more room, as would a deal involving Chris Boucher.”
Michael Grange
“As an example, dealing Trent for expiring contracts probably won’t return as nice a pick or prospect as dealing Trent for a player owed money beyond 2023 would. Since the Raptors’ path to meaningful cap space this summer would require a large (and careful) dismantling of the current roster, the more fruitful path will likely be maximizing asset value and operating as an above-cap team again. The opportunity cost of that lost cap space is minimal the more difficult your path to cap space is to begin with.”
Blake Murphy
Thus, staying put gives Toronto more flexibility. They can try and save this season or not. They can then hunt the draft, monitor the trade market, and scour Free Agency all while keeping their core until they’re comfortable in deciding to go a certain direction.
Trade deadlines are artificial timelines. There’s no actual rush for Toronto to decided it’s mid-to-long-term future in the middle of a season. Especially, when these guys’ values aren’t going anywhere any time soon.
At the very least, the Raptors can start 2023/24 with a team they believe can win games with a real bench. Should that fail there’s no stopping them holding the league hostage once again. (Though, O.G. and Pascal would have no years left on their contracts unless deals were struck in the offseason.)
5. The Trade Debate: If I had to Pick
Fine. You.re right. Staying put is a cop-out. No fun.
So, I’ll choose. Just to indulge you.
And, while it pains me to do it, it’s Freddy.
There’s no single smoking gun as to why. Its an aggregate of wispy pocket pistols.
For one, Freddy is not exactly what this team needs. Not in the way he’s willing anyway. I know all of what I said above is contrary to this, and I believe what I said, but, ultimately, Freddy is not a point guard. He does not perfectly jive with the others on this team. He’s a score first guard who distributes later.
Many a time this year, when Pascal was dominating or Scottie or Gary was hot, did Freddy go his own way. I can only critique Freddy so much for doing this, but he gives me the feels as the odd man out moving forward. Especially, if we all agree that this core needs a restructuring.
(I could go for pages on what I love about Freddy, and Samson Folk has done a good job giving both sides, but to save you time, suffice it to say, loving him goes without much explanation.)
Freddy is also 29 at the end of this month. Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul are anomalies. There have been plenty of examples of smaller guards with extremely high volumes who expire swiftly. Especially for someone who has already shown signs of wear-and-tear the last two seasons. Kemba Walker serves as a recent example.
I’m not saying Freddy is soon to implode. I am saying that paying him a hefty 4-year salary with that evidence is riskier than signing most 29 year-olds at the peak of their powers.
Finally, Freddy would reap a haul, not that of O.G.’s magnitude – or, at least, the ones rumoured – but one greater than Gary’s.
Freddy is an NBA champion. And one who can carry offensive loads during random lulls and in the clutch . I think it’s fair to say he can be the third best player on a championship team. Any team seriously optimistic about such aspirations and lacking in back court depth should look at Freddy.
TRADING FREDDY TO A CONTENDER
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Why Memphis
The Grizz have lost 7 of 8 and, barely, pulled off the W against Indiana. They’ve been without Steven Adams for most of that, but a quick look at their box scores and it looks to me that their bench suffers. Memphis has put a lot of stock in their drafting and development. They won’t all blossom as quickly as Desmond Bane will, and the Grizz don’t have time to wait.
Much has also been made of Memphis’ lack of maturity. Chris Vernon, a Memphis Grizzly media personality on The Ringer, has spoken about this recently.
Freddy swaps in for Tyus. Scorer for distributor. Champion for good bench player. Morant, Bane, and FVV might be small, but they’ll dizzy teams. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams can hope to shore up what those three give up on the perimeter.
Why Toronto
Tyus, conversely, gives the Raptors a true point guard on a very team-friendly contract who can play immediately. Jake Laravia is a shooting power forward the Raptors can get their developmental hands on, and a protected first from Golden State is a nice thanks for doing business. Maybe Toronto can push for more.
Toronto is in Memphis on Sunday…👀
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Why New Orleans
New Orleans is another aspirational team plummeting of late. The Pelicans have won only thrice in their last 18 games falling from near the top of the Western Conference to 10th.
And, like Memphis, they’re in an enviable position of having both championship chances and a promising future. In fact, so aspirational and so promising they may do nothing at the deadline. Health could be their greatest transaction.
Still, should they want to consolidate and surround Zion and Ingram with more shooting and playmaking, Freddy could fit nicely. A finishing group of FVV, CJ, Zion, Ingram, and Herb Jones/Trey Murphy is small as Hell, but an offensive nightmare from Hell too.
Why Toronto
Toronto gets another score first, much-less skilled, undersized guard in Devonte Graham, who’s 4-year/ $47 million expires in 2025, and a non-rim protecting big man (brothers reunited!) Willy Hernangómez. Not ideal.
In recompense, Toronto gets a pick and rookie, Dyson Daniels, who has already demonstrated an ability to guard at an elite NBA level and, at 6’6″, has the potential to play positions 1 through 4. An obvious Masai dream.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES + PHOENIX SUNS
I’M AN EVIL GENIUS!
or is it MAD SCIENTIST!?
BOTH! MUAHAHAH.
Why Minnesota
I won’t get into the drama of the Minnesota Timberwolves. All I’ll say is they want to win NOW. RIGHT NOW. And, one thing holding them back is leadership. Rudy Gobert, despite being a veteran and defensive anchor, does not, apparently, have the locker room’s command. Leaving, really, no one else.
This is Anthony Edwards’ team. He is the future. He needs a mentor and a leader – so does Karl Anthony-Towns for that matter – and a guy who can complement him both in ballhandling and shooting. Freddy is that. Jae Crowder gives them a nice power forward to pair with Gobert or KAT. Shamet another shooter. This team has a Top 8 ready to rumble.
Why Phoenix
Phoenix might not do this. But if they don’t want to retain Cam Johnson and are worried about Chris Paul or Booker’s health in the playoffs, it only costs them a 2024 first to get Russell as a solid back-up plan. (I guess he and Booker are homies too?).
Taurean Prince is basically a carbon copy of Crowder – height, dreads and all – and has had a nice year shooting 41% from three on 3 attempts a game. A closing lineup of Ayton-Bridges-Prince-Booker-CP3 with Russell as the sparkplug is quite frightening.
Why Toronto
Toronto gets off some money. They also get Naz Reid – all of Raptors Twitter rejoices – as a versatile, shooting big man, Cam Payne as a stand-in point guard, and they make up for Freddy’s lost shooting with wing Cameron Johnson. The Raps would have to finagle roster size, but it’s essentially a 3:1, building out a real bench to work with.
Naz is a Unrestricted Free Agent and Johnson a Restricted Free Agent this summer. You can look at that one of two ways: they, basically, traded Freddy for a late first rounder or they achieved greater cap versatility. With Johnson, at least, the Raptors control contract negotiations, and, as a 6’8″ career 39% three-point shooter, that’s a very good thing.
Most importantly, though, Biyombo comes back home.
TRADING FREDDY TO A REBUILDER
There are also rumours of Freddy going to a young team in need of a veteran guard. I, personally, would not go this route if I were the GM of a rebuilding franchise, but I’m some dummy on a laptop so what do I know.
ORLANDO MAGIC
Why Orlando
Orlando gets a veteran point guard to lead their young, long, and tall core. They also desperately need shooting to surround aforementioned young, long, tall core.
Why Toronto
Toronto gets a defence-first point guard, for the future, with the potential to grow alongside his draft “nemesis” and, hopefully, develop a real shot. Gary Harris is a nice back up to his namesake.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Why OKC
Oklahoma City is in a real nice spot. The have no need to do anything. With a plethora of young’uns led by emergent All-Star SGA, the Thunder are, unexpectedly, 12th in the Western Conference and only 2.5 games out of 6th (so are, like, 6 other teams, but whatever). They have no reason to fast forward anything. It’s a win-win whatever direction in the standings they go.
That said, if they’re interested in bringing in some leadership and someone who can offset SGA’s duties while also complementing him, Freddy, like in Minny, Memphis, or New Orleans, is a fairly ideal guy to bring in. OKC could sign Freddy and build a contending team with him and SGA as the backcourt of the immediate future.
Why Toronto
Like I said, not sure OKC does this. Dort already complements SGA quite well. His three-point shooting is shaky, but he’s a hell of a defender.
I’m also not sure this one moves the needle enough for Toronto, but it’s a start.
On a fair, long-term contract, Dort’s defence along with his potential upside is enough for Toronto to invest in. He and Gary would be a very fun and unique starting back court.
Tre Mann is an intriguing add-on. He has struggled in his sophomore season. But with a lesser role, he can come off the bench and let it fly for a few minutes – Bones Hyland style – Nurse-allowing, of course. Mike Muscala is salary filler and won’t help Toronto’s size issue, but he can space the floor (38% on 3 three-point attempts a game). Enough said.
CHICAGO BULLS
This might be crazy. To be fair, I’m trying to be inventive. And, yes, I know Chicago isn’t “rebuilding”, but what are they doing?
Why Chicago
Lonzo Ball might just not ever hoop again.
If the Bulls aren’t willing to scrap the Lavine/DeMar/Vooch experiment and want to give this another go, quickly audibling for Freddy is a genius double-down.
Why Toronto
Ball might just not ever hoop again.
That would be tragic. The chance that he might is worth the upside. Dosunmu and Portland’s pick this year is compensation in the event he doesn’t. Dosunmu can’t shoot, great, I know, but he’s another sophomore with lots of upside that also gives Toronto mucho flexibility regardless of Ball’s future.
