It only took moments after Fred VanVleet earned a small country’s GDP from Houston for the Toronto Raptors to look elsewhere for a point guard. Dennis Schröder signed in Toronto on a two-year deal almost immediately after VanVleet took his talents to Texas. The next day, the Raptors doubled (octupled?) down on athletic, defensive wings and signed Jalen McDaniels. Both are productive, established NBA players.
But what will they bring the Raptors?
The Raptors can’t seem to find a player with all the skills the team needs a guard to possess. They lost an elite shooter (theoretically) and off-ball mover and very good creator in Fred VanVleet, but VanVleet in some ways wasn’t an idealized point guard because he couldn’t consistently pressure the rim. He attacked the rim plenty, with 957 drives in 2022-23, the 14th-most in the league, but he finished 18th among the top 20 in points per chance on those drives. And he passed out of the highest rate of those top 20, by far, with the second-lowest blowby rate, per Second Spectrum. VanVleet just didn’t move the defense when he put the ball on the floor.
Schröder was inconsistent there, too. He only shot slightly more efficiently than VanVleet out of drives — 45.1 percent versus 44.5. It was a down year for him, after connecting on either 49 or 50 percent of shots out of drives for the previous three seasons in a row, per Second Spectrum. He’s good, and he’ll be an improvement on VanVleet in creating and finishing layups, but don’t expect the Raptors to have suddenly signed Kyrie Irving as a rim threatener.
Outside of one year in Oklahoma City, Schröder hasn’t ever recorded an efficient season around the rim or from the short mid-range. Cleaning the Glass has him hovering around the 40th percentile there for most of his seasons. VanVleet is closer to the 20th percentile most years (and even worse in the short mid-range), so this is still an improvement at the rim from the point-guard position.
But that’s about the only improvement you should expect from Schröder as compared to VanVleet. He’s not a shooter — with just one high-volume, above-average-for-his-position season from deep in his career. On his career, he has an effective field goal percentage of 54.4 on catch-and-shoot triples and 41.7 on pull-ups. VanVleet is at 60.4 and 50.4 there respectively — even in a down year last season, he outshot all but Schröder’s absolute best year on pull-ups. (That was 2014-15 for Schröder, when he attempted just 54 pull-up triples all year.)
As a result, VanVleet was a more efficient scorer than Schröder last season, all told. In terms of points per shot, VanVleet’s 1.10 edged out Schröder’s 1.09. Don’t expect elite efficiency all of a sudden from the point guard spot.
Efficiency isn’t everything, though; anyone who’s been truly watching VanVleet all these years should know that. Schröder does plenty well outside of putting the ball in the basket.
He was a comparably high-volume driver when compared to VanVleet, but he scored at an above-average rate, rather than very poor. He’s an extraordinarily creative finisher, with flips, hooks, runners, reverses, touch off the glass, and everything in between.
In many ways, Schröder is the same type of finisher as VanVleet: versatile, creative, flashy, and inconsistent as a result. Expect flashy highlights with plenty of space in between them. But because Schröder is taller and a better finisher, he shifts the defense more when he’s near the rim. He’s solid in the mid-range, which is a massive improvement on VanVleet, for whom that five-to-eight-foot range was a dead zone. Schröder’s drives — even if he doesn’t shoot particularly better than VanVleet on them — result in better team-wide points per possession.
Schröder also draws lots of free throws, which will be crucial for Toronto. On the other hand, he loves isolations and the long mid-range, so expect to see plenty of swampy possessions end with zero passes and a hoisted jumper from Schröder. That’s not always a bad thing; Schröder was an efficient isolation player last year, averaging 1.05 points per chance on such plays, higher than any Raptor who isolated more than 20 times last year.
But Schröder and VanVleet averaged nearly identical numbers, per Second Spectrum, in average shots per touch, dribbles per touch, seconds per touch, and passes per touch. Don’t expect the types of decisions from Toronto’s point guard to change — but the decisions will often be a shade below what they were, as VanVleet is a far superior creator for his teammates, with a much better assist rate.
Schröder is a better scorer, worse shooter, worse passer, and similar decision-maker. Defenders do not offer him respect as a shooter, and he hasn’t really done anything to earn it; he has one of the highest average minimum defender distances per touch in the league, meaning when he catches the ball, defenders are really far away. He prefers to work in the same space as both Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes. He’s on a significantly smaller payscale than VanVleet, which is extremely helpful for Toronto’s ability to build a team in the long term.
But in the short term, he’ll be helpful, but not as helpful as VanVleet was. Schröder will help the Raptors find efficient points around the rim and at the free throw line. That will be significant. But last year, VanVleet had the highest offensive on/offs on the team and the second-highest half-court offensive on/offs, behind only Siakam. The Raptors will need to replace his offensive value by committee.
Schröder is also a talented and useful defender. He’s long and mobile and solid in isolation. He doesn’t force turnovers or blocks or rebound, all of which are fairly important — but not everything. He’s sticky on the ball and gives up far fewer blowbys than VanVleet. He’s fantastic guarding cutters off the ball. He’s a great shot contester, forcing tough shots and offering enough size to actually make them tough. Schröder won’t help Toronto do what (used to be) most important in forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. But he will make sure opponents don’t get easy shots, and that they miss the ones they get. Ideally, he’ll shift the team away from its extreme defensive style and towards something more conservative, and ideally more effective.
But… you know who will help force turnovers and get out in transition? Jalen McDaniels.
The 6-foot-10 forward has big block and steal rates, and he inhales rebounds. He’s not a terrific athlete (compared to NBA players, obviously), with below-average speed and vertical, but he’s endlessly long with great (and huge) hands and timing. He’s a versatile team defender — he doesn’t quite have the chops to hang in isolation against elite wings or guards, but he’s excellent in the pick and roll. And the real extent of that excellence is defined by his versatility; he’s elite both defending the handler and the screener.
Per Second Spectrum, only six players in the league (Rui Hachimura, Kevin Durant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Derrick Jones jr., Brandon Ingram, and D’Angelo Russell) held opposing teams to equal or lower points per chance while defending both the handler and the screener in pick and rolls, among players who defended at least 200 possessions in both situations.
As a ballhandler defender, he was fantastic both at chasing the ballhandler over the screen and at switching. As a screener defender, he was elite in switch (the sixth-best in the league, just behind O.G. Anunoby in seventh and just ahead of Pascal Siakam in eighth) but also quite capable of playing drop.
And that’s likely the skill that most sets McDaniels apart from the huge number of power forwards already on the roster: He can play drop. Siakam and Precious Achiuwa were slightly superior to McDaniels last year in drop, as was Jakob Poeltl of course, but the rest — Thad Young, Scottie Barnes, Anunoby, Chris Boucher — did not hold up in those situations. McDaniels can comfortably play small-ball center in spurts for Toronto, allowing the team to jam as many of its power forwards on the court at once without sacrificing competitiveness.
Basketball Reference lists him as virtually never playing center, but he’s spent time over the years guarding spacing centers like Myles Turner, Brook Lopez, and others. He’s gotten cooked by rim-running centers like Jarrett Allen, so he shouldn’t play center against anyone. But why would Toronto want that? He’s likely a 10-20 minute-per-game player, so Toronto can use him tactically against centers when he can hold up defensively.
And McDaniels’ skills can pop on offense when he’s playing center. He’s a career 34.5 percent shooter from deep, which is passable for a center but nowhere else in a rotation. His jumper doesn’t look poor, and he’s had big seasons. He’s a corner-3-and-rim specialist, which doesn’t provide a whole lot of spacing anywhere other than center. He’s a relatively inefficient driver, even with the plurality of them coming against closeouts (an advantageous time to drive), but his ability to put the ball on the floor would be a plus at the center spot. And his ability to draw free throws means he’ll add efficiency despite not being an elite finisher compared to other centers. Other than that, McDaniels has never had a huge role on offense. He’s mostly been used as a floor-spacer, standing still, dribbling little, and firing when he touches the ball. Toronto already has too many players who don’t add dynamism and shooting, but it’s easiest to fit another if he can survive defensively at the center spot. If Toronto makes further moves to emphasize roster balance, instead of finding minutes for so many forwards, then McDaniels could go from a luxury to a necessity — he’d be a capable, cheap replacement for any of Toronto’s higher-cost forwards.
All in all, Toronto re-emphasized the defensive end in adding Schröder and McDaniels. And yet, it also added monochromatic offensive players who will likely cramp the half-court further. They could thrive on other teams. But Toronto’s limited structural boost — barring huge changes provided with a new coach and new rookie sharpshooter — means both will have tougher times on offense in Toronto than elsewhere. Both are talented players who can help a rotation. It will just be a question of how many of Toronto’s rotations can support their weaknesses while unlocking their strengths.
