While his name remained a fixture in the top 10 for a good chunk of the season, Isaiah Collier’s stock has fallen into the mid first round, potentially putting him in the Raptors’ range. Check out the previous piece on the best big man in the Raptors’ draft range, DaRon Holmes, if you have the time.
Isaiah Collier | 6’3.75 Guard | Southern California | 19 years old
The Intro
One of the best guards in the draft at generating offence, Collier’s shooting remains his biggest hurdle to his success in the NBA. He came into the year as a presumptive top 5 pick, remained in the top 10 for a while, and now stands to potentially be a mid to late first rounder based on recent intel. He’s more of a project than most people expected.
Collier remains one of the more polarizing players in the class, with some still believing he’s a top 5 prospect simply due to his athletic gifts combined with his ability to slash and play with both strength and finesse. Others believe that the shooting concerns are too great, placing him much farther down their boards.
Where do I land, and should the Raptors take a stab at him if he’s available? Well let’s see…
The Offence
For a guard just shy of 6’4, Collier’s finishing ability is truly impressive and it’s one thing that pretty much everybody agrees will translate to the NBA. Even with his poor shooting from beyond the arc, Collier registered 49% from the floor on the season. An insane number which just shows how capable he was at finishing on the interior.
Collier is a high level ball handler who can utilize changes in speed to maneuver his way past opposing players and carve up defences. His first step and burst are diabolical.
When he actually gets to the rim he doesn’t always elevate for a slam, but has shown to be pretty crafty at finishing with either hand and against physicality.
The shooting is ugly. Let’s call it what it is. For an average sized point guard coming into the modern NBA, he’s going to need to make some pretty drastic changes if he wants to stick around, because it’s pretty uncommon for total non shooting PGs to have lasting careers in the spacing era. Even on a make in this next clip, you can see how wonky Collier’s form looks (low elevation, push release, limp guiding hand, etc.), and there are far more inconsistencies in his mechanics on his misses.
He has no problem getting to the line, that comes rather easily for someone with his aforementioned athleticism and slashing ability.
The problems arise when he actually gets to the line. Shooting a paltry 67% doesn’t provide a lot of confidence in his ability to improve his shot in the immediate future, and it’s another area where he’ll need to improve if he wants to be a player who can be trusted to stay in games. It’s one thing when your bigs can’t hit foul shots, but when your guard who gets to the line with ease can’t hit free throws, he’s just going to be out there wasting time.
Collier’s playmaking is as equally dynamic as it is head scratching. He’s shown he’s capable of leading an offence, and has an impressive repertoire of passes at his disposal, but a lot of his passes get picked off due to being sloppily telegraphed or just straight up thrown poorly into traffic. If he can improve with his playmaking IQ and decision making, it could be the difference for Collier when it comes to being a backup guard or a potential starter.
Another area of concern I have with Collier is that he doesn’t always seem engaged when he doesn’t have the ball. If the Raptors pick him, it’s an expectation that he’d have to move around without the ball since the bulk of those duties would fall on Scottie, RJ, or Quickley. If he doesn’t fit in that scheme, the Raptors may be better off passing on him.
The Defence
In a word, it’s solid. For a 6’3.75 guard with a wingspan only an inch longer than his height, I don’t think Collier is going to be locking down many opposing players in the league.
When he’s engaged, he’s impactful on the perimeter. He showcases quick hands and a strong frame which prevents him from being bullied even by bigger players. He can pick off passing lanes before jetting off in the other direction to convert for a bucket, and he’s great at swiping at players on the fast break in attempt to get the ball back.
Part of the issue with Collier’s defence is that he’s… not always engaged. As a smaller player, he’s going to need to up the defensive intensity and play with it for 48 minutes or he’s simply going to get cooked and eaten alive in the NBA. When he’s not committed, he dies on screens and makes laughable mistakes that would get him benched in the NBA.
Brendan’s Take
I had Collier in my top 5 for a good chunk of the year until I started watching him more closely and the weaknesses in his game became more apparent. I think no matter how you look at it, the shooting is a concern and he’s going to struggle with that aspect of his game for a while in the NBA. His turnovers will also be an issue, and he’ll need to improve his decision making when it comes to passing the rock if he ever wants to get serious reps running a team. I would urge fans of Collier to look past his flashy athleticism and slashing ability to recognize that there’s a reason his stock’s been falling.
With that being said, he creates rim pressure very well and is one of the strongest guards I’ve ever seen. His body is definitely NBA ready and he’d fit well on a team that has a need for guards who can generate chances in the half court and get into the paint. The athleticism, handling, slashing, and playmaking flashes are reasons why I’m not out on Collier as a prospect completely.
Collier is going to slot in at the 14-16 range on my big board. I haven’t been too impressed with his play, but he’s going to be a project and the flashes that he’s shown have convinced me that he’s still worth a selection in the mid first round.
His range right now looks to be anywhere from late lottery to mid 20’s, so his selection could be one of the biggest surprises on draft night. I think that there is value in selecting him at the Raptors’ pick simply due to his innate ability to playmake and generate chances at the rim from the guard spot, which the Raptors sorely need. I think expectations should be tempered – just the fact that he was a highly rated recruit doesn’t mean that he’s going to be a star in the NBA, though I think a path exists for him to be a valuable contributor on a good team. I also don’t think success will come quickly for Collier, and it’s going to take a few seasons before he starts to realize his potential due to all the issues he has to hammer out. At least he’ll be a fun watch in the meantime.
But I mean hey, an athletic guard from USC with shooting concerns getting drafted to the Raptors? Surely there’s no way that would ever work out, right?
Be sure to check back tomorrow as we analyze our first forward prospect of the cycle; a swiss army knife of a player that’s been gaining traction but should still be in the Raptors’ range.
