Question: If Jonas Valanciunas makes the all-star game one day, and Dwane Casey is there to coach it, will Jonas play in the fourth quarter?
Will any player over six feet play, for that matter?
That whole idea seems far-fetched. At this point, Jonas Valanciunas making the all-star team seems even more improbable than the Raptors topping the East at the mid-way point, and Dwane Casey slotting in as head coach of the conference’s all-stars someday.
But recently, Jeff Van Gundy dropped a bomb on the entire Raptors nation with his all-star reserve picks.
Does his selection of Jonas Valanciunas have any merit? Time to take a deeper look.
Among all-star reserves in the front court, Valanciunas was 4th in votes behind Marcin Gortat, Chris Bosh, and Kevin Love. Thanks to Canada / Lithuania, that puts Jonas ahead of players like Joakim Noah, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford.
But it’s not up to Canada or Lithuania anymore.
By the numbers, here is where Jonas stands among potential all-star reserves in his position.
Scoring
Chris Bosh 21.2
Nikola Vucevic 19.6
Kevin Love 17.5
Al Jefferson 17.4
Paul Millsap 17
Al Horford 15.2
Jonas Valanciunas 12.7
Andre Drummond 12.5
Rebounds
Andre Drummond 12.8
Nikola Vucevic 11.2
Kevin Love 10.3
Joakim Noah 9.2
Jonas Valanciunas 8.5
Marcin Gortat 8.2
Al Jefferson 8
Paul Millsap 7.9
Chris Bosh 7.6
Field Goal Percentage
Jonas Valanciunas 55.3%
Al Horford 54.6%
Marcin Gortat 54.1%
Nikola Vucevic 53.8%
Andre Drummond 49.8%
Paul Millsap 48.6%
Al Jefferson 48.5%
Chris Bosh 47%
Blocks
Andre Drummond 1.69
Joakim Noah 1.51
Al Horford 1.45
Marcin Gortat 1.33
Al Jefferson 1.28
Jonas Valanciunas 1.07
Paul Millsap .86
Nikola Vucevic .78
Chris Bosh .61
Kevin Love .51
Quick observations from those numbers: Everything above confirms the fact that Nikola Vucevic is awesome, and Jonas Valanciunas is an incredibly efficient player on the offensive end (you can view his shotchart for the season here).
As a general rule of thumb, the more range you have as a player, the lower your shooting percentage will be. It’s no surprise then that Valanciunas – who pretty much scores all his points in the restricted area – has a much higher field goal percentage than players like Bosh, Love, and Millsap who spend more time outside the paint. Perhaps Van Gundy sees just how efficient Jonas is. For arguments sake, would Valanciunas’ usage go up in the fourth quarter if Van Gundy was in charge?
The Spurs were hoping to draft Valanciunas in 2011. Would he be furthur along in development under the guidance of Greg Popovich and Tim Duncan?
Jonas Valanciunas’ field goal attempts by the quarter:
Q1: 3.7
Q2: 1.8
Q3: 2.3
Q4: 1.1
There is something perplexing about these figures. Despite Jonas’ low usage in the fourth quarter, the Raptors have one of the best fourth quarter differentials in the league (9th). Even more bizarre: The Raptors’ worst point-differential per quarter happens in the first quarter (14th in the NBA), which also coincides with Jonas’ highest usage rate.
Ugh, what?
Fear not Jonas fan boys, there are numbers to counteract that. Valanciunas has the second highest PER on the team after Kyle Lowry. The most efficient +/- lineup that the Raptors can have which features both starters and bench players is this one: Jonas Valanciunas, James Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Lou Williams, Kyle Lowry.
Makes sense. James Johnson does not stretch the floor, but he doesn’t take away touches inside from Jonas either. That line-up is also pretty solid defensively, and prevents less blow-bys on the perimeter that Jonas typically would get punished for.
And that’s the key.
Dwane Casey has to find a way to incorporate Valanciunas to highlight his efficiency. Jonas needs to be surrounded with players he can thrive with, because he’s better than most people think.
For all the criticism the Raptors get for not having a rim protector, you may not have to look too far to find one. According to Nylon Calculus, Valanciunas is better at protecting the rim (sort by FG% allowed) than players like Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford.
If an upgrade needs to be done, it should be at the power forward position to get a stretch four to compliment Jonas. If that can’t be done, the next logistical step is to demote Amir Johnson to the bench and bring in Patrick Patterson. As per Eric Koreen, a Jonas – PatMan partnership is five points better per 100 possession than a Jonas – Amir duo.
Will Jonas be an all-star this year? No.
Will Jonas ever be an all-star? It would be extremely ignorant to rule it out. Valanciunas has all the tools and passion for the game to keep growing. Like DeRozan, he’s improved his numbers every year, and like DeRozan, he works diligently to get those numbers.
But Valanciunas faces a test that DeRozan didn’t face: Dwane Casey’s ‘accountability’. I use that term loosely, because it’s only really applied to situations where Dwane Casey chooses to apply it to. Valanciunas is held accountable for every mistake he makes on the floor – all part of Dwane Casey’s tough-love approach in his quest to develop Jonas as a player.
Trust me when I say this: The test is no joke. Having been in the locker room to see Jonas’ body language and tone when he only plays 20 minutes a game can be quite distressing and mentally straining. I would love to see what a confidence-inducing coach would do for Valanciunas. I think he would do even better, but that’s all speculation of course.
There is one more thing to consider when looking at Jonas’ numbers in comparison with other bigs in the East: Jonas is last among all of them in minutes played at just over 26 mpg. So, the fact that he gets numbers that are up to par as other starting big-men is impressive to say the least.
#JVALLSTAR2016
