There’s reasons for and against Valanciunas playing in crunch time.
There’s been a lot of discussion hate directed towards Dwane Casey’s habit of benching Jonas Valanciunas during crunch time.
Let’s first put Valanciunas’s fourth-quarter absence in context. His average of 5.4 fourth quarter minutes per game ranks well-below Patrick Patterson (8.0) or Amir Johnson (6.7). Even Terrence Ross, who has struggled for the better part of a month, is logging an average of 7.2 fourth-quarter minutes.
The gap is somewhat narrowed in crunch time. In the final five minutes of a game within five points, Valanciunas is logging an average of 2.4 minutes per game, which ties him with Amir Johnson (2.4), though that still lags well behind Patterson, who clocks in at 3.2 crunch time minutes per game.
However, even that figure is misleading: Valanciunas has only made 13 total clutch appearances, as compared to 24 for Kyle Lowry, 18 for Williams and 19 for Amir Johnson.
So is Valanciunas being benched? And consequently, why should he play? There’s reason for both sides.
For: Valanciunas is a strong rebounder
This should come as a surprise to no one, but the Raptors are susceptible to offensive rebounds when Valanciunas sits. Both Patterson and Johnson are undersized to effectively battle centers, and Patterson especially tends to get carried out to the perimeter executing aggressive traps. The result is that the Raptors allow the 2nd-highest proportion of offensive rebounds in the clutch at a whooping 32.9 percent.
Valanciunas helps significantly in that regard. He’s the team’s best rebounder by leaps and bounds (unless you want to count the 20 minutes in which Bebe Nogueira has played). Valanciunas is particularly adept at grabbing defensive rebounds. He snags 26 percent of available defensive rebounds, which is easily bests Patterson (16.9 percent) and Johnson (15.2 percent). Valanciunas even tops Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis (24.6 percent).
Against: Valanciunas is a poor help defender
Casey prefers his bigs to be smart, mobile and reliable defensively, none of which particularly suits Valanciunas. Defense is the hardest skill to develop, especially when it comes to 22-year-old centers, but it’s become a problem with Valanciunas in particular.
According to 82games.com, the Raptors are 6.3 points per 100 possessions better with Valanciunas on the bench, which simply cannot be ignored. Now, the Raptors defense has been pretty terrible regardless of lineup construction, but playing Patterson (+1.1) or Amir Johnson (-2.2) is far more palatable than Valanciunas’ slow-footed help defense.
Valanciunas is fine as a rim protector in post-up scenarios, but he’s somewhat clueless when it comes to help schemes. He’s far too slow to hedge, or to step outside to the perimeter, so his value only comes in staying at home in the paint. However, teams have begun to exploit his weakness by seeking him out on pick-and-rolls, especially if Valanciunas is guarding a jumpshooting big. And even if he is at home, there’s no guarantee that he’s able to rotate in time.
For: Valanciunas can score in the post
If there’s one thing Valanciunas has proven in his career, it’s the ability to score in the post. His moves aren’t all too varied, but his two-pronged combo of a righty sweeping hook and a turnaround jumper going left is effective, especially in one-on-one scenarios. The Raptors have a simple pet play where they set a down screen for Valanciunas to catch the ball on the right block which works fairly well.
Valanciunas’s post ups could potentially come in handy for the Raptors in crunch time, as the offense tends to migrate to the perimeter in the fourth quarter. Three-point attempts increase by 23.3 percent in the fourth quarter, while attempts in the paint dip by 10 percent.
Against: Valanciunas can’t handle double-teams
Given Valanciunas’s dominance in the paint, it’s often argued that Casey should just play to his team’s advantages, especially against smallball teams. Valanciunas may not have the quickness to check a Markieff Morris-type on the 3-point line, but Markieff also lacks the size and strength to check Valanciunas on the block. The idea is for the Raptors to impose their will against their opponents, rather than match-up and hoping to counter punch.
However, Valanciunas is somewhat inflexible in the post and he often struggles to handle double-teams. Well-rounded post players like Zach Randolph and Pau Gasol handle extra defenders with poise. They keep their cool and survey the floor to find the open man. Valanciunas, on the other hand, immediately panics before picking up his dribble. That grind the offense to a halt and it easily muddles the offense.
That’s the trouble with playing Valanciunas against smallball lineups. Going small trades height for speed, which shifts the calculus in favor of doubling and recovering. Until Valanciunas learns how to make a productive move against double-teams, repeatedly attacking smallball through the post is not feasible.
For: Development in the long run
Valanciunas has his warts, but he’s integral to the Raptors’ long-term success. It may be unpalatable to watch him screw up in big moments, but the stakes are low in the regular season. It’s in both Valanciunas and the Raptors’ interests for Valanciunas to work out the kinks with real-time reps, something Grantland’s Zach Lowe noted early in the season.
Time to start investing some real 4Q minutes in Valanciunas, though. He’s too good to be a crunch time afterthought, will pay off later.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) November 27, 2014
The playoffs is when Valanciunas will be needed most. The Eastern Conference is stacked with solid bigs wherever you look. The Cavaliers have Timofey Mozgov, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. Washington has a solid duo in Nene and Marcin Gortat. The Pistons trot out two monsters in Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. The Bulls are the Bulls. Even Charlotte (who have repeatedly thwarted the Raptors) have Al Jefferson. Valanciunas will need to come up big in order for the Raptors to advance a series or two.
