The Toronto Raptors are finally back at home. They say the first home game after a long road trip feels like a road game still, given the unfamiliarity and short lead time to settle in, but the Raptors will surely be thankful to be in Toronto nonetheless. The Raptors went 3-3 out west, an entirely acceptable record for such a trip but one they came by in an ugly and oft-frustrating way, and confidence around the comments section seems to be a little low.
That makes this next stretch of games important, both to the team and the perception of them – Utah, (at) Chicago, Houston, and Boston are all teams firmly in the league’s second tier, where the Raptors have stacked up well. Maybe the Bulls aren’t that great a test given how they’re playing right now, but it’s a game in Chicago, which is never easy, especially for Toronto the last few years. There’s also a back-to-back on the slate, and so while yes, they’re no longer on the road, this is hardly a tidy four-game stretch. Play well and go, say, 3-1, and most of the concerns that cropped up the last two weeks will fall by the wayside. Struggle to a 2-2 mark or drop a winnable game, and the questions about where this team ranks in the league’s pecking order could grow louder, fair or otherwise.
It starts with Utah, against whom the Raptors started their trip initially. Kyle Lowry went full KLOE in that one, helping the Raptors pick up a signature road win, and it should be an equally entertaining game here in Toronto. The Jazz had won four in a row before falling to Boston on Tuesday (in the controversial Cheer-for-Gordon-Hayward, Jae-Crowder-is-OK-leaving controversy), and they’ll come in as the league’s No. 11 offense and No. 4 defense. At 22-14, the Jazz once again represent a potential statement victory.
The game tips off at 7:30 p m. on Sportsnet One and Sportsnet 590.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to the Utah-based Ben Dowsett of BBall Insiders, and he was kind enough to provide some illumination. We also just did this back on Dec. 23, and most of Ben’s answers there should still hold today.
Blake Murphy:Â We just talked not all that long ago, as the Raptors visited the Jazz on Dec. 23. Just two weeks later here, has much changed for the Jazz?
Ben Dowsett:Â Not a great deal. The Jazz have cleared guard Alec Burks to play, but he’s seen just three minutes of court time in two games since that clearance. Forward Derrick Favors has had more time to return to form, and is now back in his usual role in the starting lineup, but he’s still struggled for long stretches and appears to be fighting conditioning and movement concerns. Partially as a result, the 4-spot has become a real point of concern for the Jazz in recent weeks – their best lineups have typically been small units with Favors or Rudy Gobert at center. Outside some potential fatigue issues this week with five road games played in seven days, things are mostly the same in Utah.
Blake Murphy:Â Did you have any takeaways from the Dec. 23 meeting about how the Jazz could better approach the Toronto matchup? What about the other way around?
Ben Dowsett:Â In all honesty, it’s tough to look at any element of the Jazz’s approach a couple weeks back and find major fault in it. They did a very good job against DeMar DeRozan despite getting only limited minutes from a flu-ailing Rodney Hood, and held the Raptors to just 10 points from the free-throw line on the game. Raptors not named Lowry shot 46 percent, an acceptable figure to allow, and the Jazz got balanced scoring and a good showing from the bench, especially Canadian Trey Lyles (19 points, 7 boards). Unfortunately, though, that Lowry guy was on the court too, and the Jazz had zero answer for him. His 15-20 from the field destroyed them, including a blazing fourth quarter to bring Toronto back from a small deficit.
You want to think schematic adjustments can stem this tide…but recent evidence suggests they really can’t. Minus George Hill, it’s really hard to see an avenue that doesn’t involve a) a quick star guard like Lowry killing the Jazz with his own offense or b) said guard forcing rotations and secondary shooters lighting the Jazz up from deep (this happened to Utah on Tuesday night in Boston, where Isaiah Thomas dropped 15 dimes on them). Utah simply doesn’t have the personnel to defend these kinds of stars with Hill out, and there seems to be no solution that doesn’t open up huge cracks elsewhere.
Blake Murphy:Â It sounds like George Hill and Dante Exum could both miss the second meeting, too. Obviously, they’re both important defensive pieces and Hill is a major part of the offense. If either were to play, how would that shift the balance in this matchup?
Ben Dowsett:Â Exum might only have a minor effect, but Hill’s presence has quickly become likely the largest individual factor in Utah’s outlook – especially against a team like Toronto with a guard like Lowry on board. It’s honestly tough to see the Jazz with much of a chance Thursday if Hill misses the game, barring a remarkable showing from Gordon Hayward or another Jazz stud. On the flip side, if he had been able to play (neither was definitively out as Ben wrote this, but Hill was ruled out afterward), the Jazz should have a fighting chance. They have solid matchups elsewhere on the board, and Hill might allow them to temper Lowry’s dominance at least a bit.
Blake Murphy:Â How freaking good is Auston Matthews?
Ben Dowsett:Â 
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Raptors updates
The Raptors still don’t have an update on the status of Patrick Patterson, and it’s unlikely there will be one until close to game-time, as the Raptors did not practice Wednesday and are not doing a shootaround Thursday. It seems like a necessary break – mental, as much as physical – after more than two weeks on the road, but it means little in the way of information. Patterson is dealing with a left knee strain (the team listed it as a left ankle sprain on Tuesday, if day-to-day injuries weren’t confusing enough already) that’s kept him out of the last two-and-a-half games, and it’s hard to get a feel for if he’ll be ready to go here. He’s been off a week now, but there’s also a back-to-back coming up and it’s January, so the Raptors can be cautious.
If Patterson can’t go, the Raptors have a few options. The Jazz start big with Favors and Gobert together but as Ben pointed out, they’ve often looked better with only one of those players on the floor, with Lyles or Boris Diaw at the four. If it’s Favors and Gobert, the Raptors should give another look to the dual-center lineups that were good against the Lakers and not as bad as their traditional ones against the Spurs, because there are some encouraging signs there. Otherwise, they might be able to buy minute smaller, with DeMarre Carroll or even Norman Powell at the four – in the last meeting, the Raptors were a minus-2 in nine minutes playing like that, a tiny sample but one that suggests it’s a matchup play they can go to without disaster.
And if Patterson can go, well, all the better. The team has struggled without him, missing a combination of the spacing he provides in the frontcourt, his intelligent defense, and even just the extra body to throw out there. They’re understandably thin without him and Jared Sullinger.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Fred VanVleet)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Pascal Siakam, (Patrick Patterson), (Bruno Caboclo)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
Assigned:Â Bruno Caboclo, Fred VanVleet
TBD:Â Patrick Patterson
OUT: Delon Wright, Jared Sullinger
Jazz updates
George Hill has been ruled out with a concussion, and his in-and-out of the lineup continues to be a big loss for Utah. He’s been awesome when healthy and a terrific fit with this Jazz team on both ends of the floor, but he hasn’t been able to contribute regularly. In the short-term, Hill’s absence means the point guard duties fall on the shoulders of Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack, who are definitely better than the succession plan down the depth chart a year ago (when Exum was hurt and Mack wasn’t picked up until late), but who still aren’t a slam-dunk for the offense. Exum can certainly defend, at least, but he’s questionable, too, do to a knee injury.
That means point guard duties could falla on Mack and Raul Neto again. That’s not exactly the Jazz at their best, particularly defending the point of attack, and it wasn’t particularly effective when Lowry eviscerated them a few weeks back. At least with Burks back and Hood fully healthy, the Jazz have the option to experiment going without a natural point guard and just playing super long at each position – a lot of their wings can handle the ball enough to perhaps make it tenable for small stretches. If Exum can play, that helps.
Elsewhere, the DeRozan assignment is likely to be shared, but Hood should see the bulk of it. Maybe it’s a chance for Burks to finally get some run, and Joe Ingles put in a solid effort when asked to last time out. Whoever is at the point gets the opportunity to be roasted by a bounce-back Lowry game.
PG: (Dante Exum), Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto
SG: Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Alec Burks
SF: Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson
PF: Derrick Favors, Trey Lyles, Boris Diaw
C: Rudy Gobert, Jeff Withey
Assigned: Joel Bolomboy
TBD: Dante Exum
Out:Â George Hill
The line
The Raptors are 5.5-point favorites, which says a lot about the important of George Hill. Toronto won by six on the road with Hill and Exum sitting (but Patterson playing), so holding there as the location switches seems reasonable enough. The line’s been noisy, bouncing all over the place in the early going, so it’ll be interesting to see where it lands after the status of Exum and Patterson are determined. The over-under is presently at 201.5, right in line with the 202 total from their last meeting.
