Statophile 12b – Booing Theory

What happens when you boo a former Raptor All-star? Let’s look at the numbers.

The booing VC backfired edition:

What happens when you boo a former Raptor all-star?

“Theswirsky” asked in the comment section: “I would … be quite interested if you could find a correlation between booing and player success or failure though.”

While an exhaustive study would take some time, I did manage to run Vince Carter’s performances: 1) versus Toronto at the Air Canada Centre (ACC), 2) versus Toronto at (either New Jersey or Orlando during his time there) and 3) against his league averages (excluding ACC games).

Since leaving Toronto, Vince Carter has played 10 regular season games at the ACC (9 times with New Jersey, 1 with Orlando). He has recorded 13% more points, 38% more rebounds and 9% more assists than all other games (478) on teams other than his Toronto days or when playing at the ACC with NJN or ORL.

I also pulled data for his games against Toronto on his home court (New Jersey or Orlando) for this period. This is important as perhaps Toronto just happened to match up very poorly or very well against these NJ or ORL teams.

The data is even better:

Carter recorded 34% more points per game (on much better shooting), 27% more rebounds and 4% more assists per game at the Air Canada Centre versus away from it – in games against his former team.

Note these are small sample sizes. But having witnessed two last second VC shots/dunks at the Air Canada Centre, I can confirm the “boos” only fueled him. And this data, on the surface, confirms it. The boos certainly didn’t phase him. His teams were 6-4 at the ACC and 5-7 at home.

Would you rather: boo loudly, have a former all-star go off and the Raptors lose… or perhaps try a different approach?

Get behind the home team.

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