A little earlier, we went deep into the Toronto Raptors first-round matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks with our own writers, providing our perspective on the series. Then, we had a Q&A with a Cavaliers writer to get the alternate perspective on the series.
It can also be instructive to get perspectives from outside of the team-specific bubble. Those without a rooting (or writing) interest in the series have the benefit of more space, a balance of knowledge across both teams, and less potential bias. Assessing the market can help a bit, too, and SportsBetting.ag has the Raptors as heavy underdogs, no matter how confident fans may be. Getting opinions from outside of where there’s potential for an echo chamber can help further color the picture ahead of Game 1.
So we reached out to a handful of writers from around the league for their take on Raptors-Cavaliers, asking them three pretty simple questions.
The Raptors have built their last 12 months around closing the gap between themselves and the Cavaliers. Have they succeeded?
Jared Dubin: Yes, but probably not enough to overtake them.
Mitchell Maurer: Mitchell Maurer: Of all the teams that loaded up for a playoff run, the Raptors probably did the best job. Serge Ibaka gives them a needed element on both ends of the court, and P.J. Tucker is a welcome addition to a team that needs stout wings to throw at LeBron. As long as Dwayne Casey has his guys locked in on offense, the Raptors should be able to score points in this series. The question will be if they are content to try and outscore Cleveland, or if their defense is up to the (considerable) challenge.
Michael Pina: Yes, thanks to a variety of factors. To start, the Raptors added Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, two quality defensive options who can theoretically make enough outside shots to spread Cleveland’s Charmin-soft defense. Speaking of, the Cavaliers are different team this year, with a defense that pales in comparison to what Toronto saw in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Those are two reasons why the Cavaliers will have their hands full.
Jovan Buha: If I’m forced to predict, I’d lean no. The Raptors are better suited to push the Cavaliers to seven games with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker on board, but I still don’t think they have the depth or firepower to exploit the Cavaliers’ defensive shortcomings four times.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a cop out to say “We’re about to find out,” but it’s hard to know how else to answer that question. The Raptors appear to have figured out some important rotational and hierarchical questions about themselves in the Bucks series, but even if the results were ultimately decisive, you could hardly say they were overwhelming — personally, if I was the Cavs, I’d be much more scared to play the Wizards right now. This definitely feels like the best incarnation of this particular Raptors squad, but I’m not sure if the improvements have changed the team’s ceiling (which at this point basically means “their chances to beat LeBron”) dramatically. But even if they did, we’d never believe it until we actually saw it, so good thing we’re about to get at least four games of evidence one way or the other.
Ian Levy: I mean, we’re about to find out. I’m not sure how to answer this without seeing how the series unfolds, that’s the ultimate test. On paper, they are as prepared as they possibly could be and I think they’re certainly the toughest challenge left for Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. If the lose to Cleveland again, it’s certainly not going to be because they didn’t make the right moves or because they made some personnel miscalculations — it will be because there is only one LeBron and he wasn’t coming to Toronto.
What is the single biggest thing the Raptors need to focus on to give themselves a chance at the upset?
Jared Dubin: Making sure they don’t experience the same kind of scoring lulls they did against the Bucks. The Raps’ defense is better this year than it was last, but it still seems unlikely they’ll be able to hold Cleveland’s offense down completely. If they don’t score at a consistently high clip themselves, they won’t be able to keep up.
Mitchell Maurer: You can try to stop LeBron if you want, but that’s a fool’s errand. The more effective approach would be to take his supporting cast down a few pegs, and that means containing Kyrie Irving, who happens to be one of the NBA’s most gifted scorers. Last series, Toronto had the “luxury” of playing against Milwaukee’s point guard corps, who cumulatively would still amount to a lesser player than Kyrie. Of course, if too much focus is put onto Kyrie, that leaves Kevin Love with more room to operate, or J.R. Smith, or any number of the Cavs’ “scrap heap” gems (Deron Williams and Derrick Williams, most notably). So there isn’t any single item that would give the Raptors an advantage, meaning it will take an all-out effort from every single player to even the odds.
Michael Pina: Staying home on three-point shooters when LeBron James is isolated one-on-one (and/or constant prayer). It’s a popular strategy that works much better on paper, but Cleveland’s outside shooters are too lethal, and James is too good a passer, for Toronto’s defenders to cheat off the perimeter. Force LeBron to beat you. If that last sentence sounds stupid, that’s because it is.
Jovan Buha: The Raptors face the riddle the NBA has been perplexed by over the past decade: Let LeBron James get his and try to shut down his teammates, or force LeBron to pass and hope no one else hurts you? There is no clear-cut answer. Many teams have tried both strategies — sometimes in the same game. If Toronto ends up winning this series, they will have stricken a proper balance and (momentarily) discovered the answer.
Andrew Unterberger: Figuring out what large-scale adjustments they need to make before the series comes back to Toronto? You can’t wait until Game 4 against LeBron to finally trot out your most logical starting five — by then, it’ll almost certainly be too late.
Ian Levy: Exploiting mismatches, but with an open mind. The Raptors have so much depth and so much versatility they really need to be proactive in setting themselves up to create and exploit mismatches, as opposed to playing reactively and getting lost in trying to solve or keep up with Cleveland’s lineups and sets. They also need to avoid getting lost in trying to focus in on one potential advantage. If something isn’t working, move quickly to change it. Winning this series (for either team) is going to take execution and creativity.
Who takes the series, in how many games, and why?
Jared Dubin: Cavs in 6 because LeBron will get bored and give the Raptors two games again.
Mitchell Maurer: LeBron James has clearly saved his best efforts for the postseason for a few years now, and the Cavs’ quick dispatching of the Indiana Pacers was proof that Playoff LeBron is here. That’s reason alone to designate the Cavaliers as the favorites in the series, and a healthy contingent of role players (separate from the currently-active stars, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love) further solidifies their advantage. Still, Toronto has shown enough to warrant a stout resistance, but my prediction is that the series ends 4-2 Cavs.
Michael Pina: The Cavaliers in 6. Because they are the Cavaliers.
Jovan Buha: The Cavaliers in 6 games. If not for the midseason additions of Ibaka and Tucker, I would’ve taken the Cavs in 5. But I think both can be difference-makers in this series defensively. I’m not a fan of the way Cleveland has played over the past two months, so perhaps they’re more vulnerable than we’re aware of. Still, it’s quite possible they have the two best players in the series (Playoffs Kyrie >>> Regular-Season Kyrie). I’m picking LeBron Raymone James’ team until someone proves me wrong.
Andrew Unterberger: Cavs in six — tough not to just go with history here. As William Lou pointed out in his excellent post-Bucks series recap on Twitter, the Raps do have a true better-than-0 chance to win this thing — but it’s more like 15% than 50%. I’m betting on the classic “Raptors take game one convincingly, everyone gets too excited, LeBron restores order in game two and gentleman’s-sweeps from there” series we’ve seen him have against so many lesser-than Eastern teams in the past decade.
Ian Levy: I see Cleveland in seven, because LeBron.
Other outside opinions
FiveThirtyEight gives the Raptors a 54-percent chance to win the series and a four-percent chance to win the title. ESPN’s BPI gives the Raptors a 47-percent chance at the upset, calling Cavaliers in 7 the most likely outcome. InPredictable gives the Raptors a 28-percent chance at winning the series and a one-percent chance at winning the championship.
(A note on those models: They may not accurately reflect Cleveland’s chill mode during the season. The Raptors had a better net rating and expected W-L record during the year, and the models may only control for player quality/tightened rotations/change in playoff performance so much.)
The Raptors are at +375 for the series and +5000 to win it all. The Raptors ranked sixth in something called the Vegas Power Rankings at ESPN, just behind Cleveland, entering the playoffs. (If the Clippers lose, Toronto will move up a spot.) Covers is projecting a Raptors +7 opening line for Game 1.
ESPN and NBA experts haven’t made their picks publicly yet (likely waiting for the first round to end completely), but Ethan Skolnick over at CBS has Raptors in 6 (they also have some Cavaliers in 5, 6, and 7). Tom Ziller of SB Nation had the Raptors going to the finals before the playoffs, but I’m not sure if the first round changed that opinion at all. I’d expect that to be par for the course – some mixed Cavaliers concern and Raptors optimism, but with most people bowing to LeBron James in the end, save for the exceptionally bold.
My picks
If anyone cares, here’s what I’ve got for Round Two: CLE in 6, WAS in 6, HOU in 7, GSW in 5 if LAC 6 if UTA
Poll
I’m sure the heavy action on the Cavaliers side is going to have some feathers ruffled. I’m interested to see where the general optimism of the fan base lies (last series, 50.3% of respondents said Raptors in 5; the 33.6% of us with Raptors in 6 win the day; the seven people who picked Bucks in 4 or 5 have been banished to Uzoh Island). Let’s hear it:
