Statophile 12b – Booing Theory

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The booing VC backfired edition:

What happens when you boo a former Raptor all-star?

“Theswirsky” asked in the comment section: “I would … be quite interested if you could find a correlation between booing and player success or failure though.”

While an exhaustive study would take some time, I did manage to run Vince Carter’s performances: 1) versus Toronto at the Air Canada Centre (ACC), 2) versus Toronto at (either New Jersey or Orlando during his time there) and 3) against his league averages (excluding ACC games).

Since leaving Toronto, Vince Carter has played 10 regular season games at the ACC (9 times with New Jersey, 1 with Orlando). He has recorded 13% more points, 38% more rebounds and 9% more assists than all other games (478) on teams other than his Toronto days or when playing at the ACC with NJN or ORL.

I also pulled data for his games against Toronto on his home court (New Jersey or Orlando) for this period. This is important as perhaps Toronto just happened to match up very poorly or very well against these NJ or ORL teams.

The data is even better:

Carter recorded 34% more points per game (on much better shooting), 27% more rebounds and 4% more assists per game at the Air Canada Centre versus away from it – in games against his former team.

Note these are small sample sizes. But having witnessed two last second VC shots/dunks at the Air Canada Centre, I can confirm the “boos” only fueled him. And this data, on the surface, confirms it. The boos certainly didn’t phase him. His teams were 6-4 at the ACC and 5-7 at home.

Would you rather: boo loudly, have a former all-star go off and the Raptors lose… or perhaps try a different approach?

Get behind the home team.

Email me: [email protected] or find me on Twitter.



      • Do you have a “RUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUPAUL!” Theory? While Bosh will surely embrace the BOOs (which will actually inflate his ego), being called “Rupaul” by twenty thousand fans on national television is likely to make Bosh cry.

  1. Raps better not boo too hard, is any1 watching the 1st Q vs the Pacers??? DWade 22pts in the 1st Q a 90 ft outlet alley-oop to LEBRON, A teardrop fadeaway that kissed the sky — Chris Bosh going to coast to coast around the back AND1–the game’s gonna be B-A-N-A-N-A-S @ ACC!!!!!!!!!!

  2. Before the Heat pulled into Cleveland they were playing terrible.There was lots of talk on their local blogs about trading Bosh and the team chemistry looked bad but hearing all that booing seemed to really awaken the beast in LEbRON. He had a big game and his team knew they had to play better or they would be dead. Check out their record since the Cleveland game.

    • Exhibit 2. Bosh’s ex-girlfriend trashing James a few years ago. James lit it for 24 points in the fourth for the win.

  3. Bosh can’t go off like LeBron or Vince (did). His night will probably be something like 18 points, 9 rebounds, just the usual….although probably more rebounds if Andrea is in the paint.

    • We’ll see about that–they’re gonna feed him and feed him some more… I’m expecting 30/15 minimum… Hopefully, we can survive and Calderon will feed DeRozan instead of #7 to start the game and ride him if he gets hot!

  4. I find the never ending booing embarrassing. McGrady said it best himself…the fans don’t even know why they are booing….or whatever he said after coming out of hibernation and lighting up the raps this year after being inexplicably boo’d….I was watching the game and I’m like seriously? We are booing a washed up mcgrady 12 years later still? wow psycho fans. Now we are going to boo a 3rd banana bosh…not to mention the fact we suck and shouldn’t be booing anyone really


    BOSH is getting booed is the max

  6. It is funny how we make comments about what people should or should not do. It is even funnier when people try to bring reason into an emotional decision as if the name “Bosh” triggers a logical discourse and not heavily invested feelings.
    My 10 years old daughter hates Bosh and she will boo him with intense passion. She cannot forget Bosh for the missed lay-up with Golden State which in her mind epitomized everything about Bosh at the end of his Toronto career. It is quite a spectacle to see my little bundle of joy and hapiness showing so much heart towards booing a b-ball player. On the other hand, I’m indifferent to Bosh because I’m happy he left Toronto. I don’t think much about him as a leader and a franchise player and I am intelectually satisfied that he took his talents to Miami. Nevertheless I will join my daughter in booing Bosh at the beginning of the game because he disrespected our city and our franchise. He acted like a douchebag at the end, not surprising for a guy who’s still a teenager psychologically, craving for attention. So, go ahead and judge me and my daughter in writing. Then come to the game and join the uneducated masses in expressing their basic insticts: it will only make you so human…

  7. booing is not gonna bother him. its gonna make him feel like he overcame adversity (by beating the 28th best team in the league playing with labron and wade).

    Paying him no mind will bother him the most.

    • I would love to see T-Mac’s numbers when we boo him tooo. It always seems as though he does well also. I hate when people get booed. To much respect for people raps fans should not care about.

      • Looks like he’s about 5 pts/g better than career avg, 0.5 APG better and 0.5 RPG better at the Air Canada Centre.

  8. I agree with BC that Bosh had already made his plans to leave the Raptor’s when he didn’t finish the season and we missed the playoffs by 1 game! Also Lebron didn’t play 1 game against the Bulls which was important for the Raptor’s and needless to say Chicage won the game!Bosh turned his back on his team when they needed him to make the playoffs!!! That in my opinion is cause to BOO him.I am glad that he left Toronto as I don’t believe he is worth all that money…franchise money NO WAY! I would take either Lebron or Wade way before Bosh any day of the week!!

  9. If I’m gonna boo someone tonight it’ll be any Raptor who gives Chris a hug before the game. Have some respect for the fans and go out after the game if he’s such a great friend.

  10. We havent booed anyone in the last 15 games and still got blown out a bunch of times…so why not get it out of our system, why walk on eggshells for these guys? so they only beat us by 10 and not 40??

  11. @Toshmon, do a search on twitter for ‘Raptors Heat stream’ tonight, and check the links that ppl will post, I’ve found this better than google searches.

  12. Lebron is gonna have a big game tonight. Did you see him on SC talking trash about Raptors Management and how he feel they that they think that Bosh ‘gave up after the allstar break’ etc etc… he said he’s excited this is the last game before all star break coz they have motivation and wants to support Bosh… I have a feeling we might get blown out tonight…lol!

    • Another reason for our players to lay off the hugs and smiles and helping them up etc. The fans want to see a warrior who won’t let us be embarrassed by allowing their friend and good teammate Bosh throw down dunks and laugh at all the fun he’s having since he left.

    • If DD and Special Ed grow up over night, we might stand a fighting chance tonight, if #7 takes 20-30 shots–it’s over like Red Rover..!

    • The Raps better come with splendid ball movement as one-on-one offense against the Heat tonight is a sure blowout. Protect the boards too, LeBron James will probably go off for 40,10 and 10 – a triple double as he seems to relish the villain personality now(ask the Portland Trailblazers where he hit a clutch 3 to end the game lol). I don’t want to see guys like Joel Anthony having more than 6 offensive rebounds as that will be a double whammy with the efficient offense they run and atrocious defense on our side lol. We should thank our stars that the scrub turned superstar(we rejuvenated him after that game a la T-mac lol) in Mike Miller is injured according to reports lol. The disqus stuff is not working to the site adminsistrators lol and I don’t like posting with my facebook profile(I prefer some privacy).

  13. Although an interesting statistical analysis, it assumes that booing causes better performances, as opposed to playing against a former team in general.

    There’s obviously no way of knowing this, but it’s possible that Carter would’ve killed us even if the crowd didn’t boo him, simply because he was amped up playing against the team that drafted him.

    In Bosh’s case, regardless of the crowd’s reaction tonight, it’s pretty safe to say he had this game circled on his calendar. He’ll be pumped even if the ACC is empty, and that alone could cause him to play well tonight.

    Is it the booing, or simply playing against your old friends/family (or a combination of both)? We’ll never know.

  14. @Buschfire….see, when LBJ talks like that, we start shuddering and say ‘maybe we shouldnt’ boo’ …instead of saying ‘bring it on then’…..even if we lose, a good physical hard fought game will satisfy the masses, but lets not run and hide cuz LBJ says he’s coming, lets hold our ground.

    • I agree….

      … but then again fans have gotten used to Bosh and Andrea whos MO is to back down or not try… so it makes sense that fans would be concerned the team will get embarrassed.

    • LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade are flesh and blood like everybody else and when they get hit hard, they feel it… Last time I checked, they didn’t have an inside presence–it’s just penetrating the perimeter to get to their weakness is the key… Jose and DeMar better bring it tonight–If they’re on we can win!

      (Closing my eyes at the ‘bad’ shots that the Heat D will fool #7 into thinking are ‘good’ shots–notably of the long 2 variety)

  15. The only way I want to see hugging before the game is if its Joey or Reggie hugging him and whispering a little sumpin in his ear like “great to see you back. I’m going to make orphans of your children” I could give two sheets about bosh, I just don’t want to see the current raps kissing his ass. I want to see some bodies flying tonight. Not trying to hurt anyone, but send a message – this isn’t your house anymore.
    As for the booing, a friendly golf-clap at the intro, then creative chants like the MVP mentioned earlier, or maybe “who’s the man”.
    At least if TO is going to make sports centre, lets make some people laugh a little, not think we’re completely lame like cleveland.

    • Unfortunately, this team is a team of soft and nice guys lol – we are not the Boston Celtics that recognise physicality to win in this league lol.

  16. I would love to see the VC numbers for his first couple games back at the ACC. I was there, and it seemed like it really shook him up. Bosh is SOFT. A Rupaul chant would totally break him down.

  17. Its like going to the Forum to cheer on the lions as they eat the christian, the cattle rustler swaying on the end of a noose, the crowds gathering for the guiliteen to fall upon the guilty’s neck. Its fun to be part of the crowd, get caught up in the emotion and come together, united in one common purpose. Enjoy, don’t think don’t, make it more then it is BBBOOOOOOOO

  18. all of this is just a welcome smokescreen for MLSE and BC that allows them a brief respite from the actual issue of the horribleness of the team they’re putting on the floor.

    boo if you want to (tho why you even care about bosh at this point is beyond me. seems kinda pathetic really. like throwing eggs at your ex girlfriends house because she left you and your minimum wage career for a rich, handsome dude with a tan. my advice, don’t be so snivelling. have some pride. move on. alas, this is toronto and you are who you are.)

    incidentally, one has to wonder if we’d let go of the farce that is jay triano and replaced him with an actual, competent coach that could have breathed fresh life into the team if we’d be enjoying an actual, competitve season; if you doubt this, look at what happend in indiana when they turfed o’brien. or in philiadelphia when they brought in Collins. Or in charlotte when they brought in Silas.

    Most of you think you’d rather tank than compete because you believe the longterm reward is coming. but it isn’t. not if colangelo is permitted to conduct the draft and make any more personnel decisions.

    we wouldn’t be in this terrible, terrible position if we’d just brought in a coaching staff that knew how to focus the team. and don’t give me ‘injuries’ as the excuse. portland has worse injuries than we do. Boston has had tons of injuries.

    in a way, the Raptors are like the Clippers. Bad management. Del Negro is just killing that team right now. And when he was hired, many, many people thought “hmm, well, let’s see how this turns out”. no one thought “Awesome! Del Negro is their coach! Now they’re sure to win”.

    sigh. Toronto is so lame.

    • The difference between Toronto and Indiana/Philly is a noticeable lack of talent in our part. Names like Granger, Hibbert, Collison, Dunleavy, Iguodala, Holiday, Brand explain the disparity pretty well.

      I’m not a Triano apologist, but I wonder if any other coach could improve upon our 15 wins with our roster.

    • which is why I keep clamouring for BC, Jay Triano, MG and Bargs to go. The BC koolaid seems to still have an effect on fans and is deflecting criticisms from BC. The people the fans should be booing is MLSE and BC for assembling the train-wreck of the team, we are seeing now with no franchise talent in sight lol. A huge misplacement of priorities imo.

  19. Seeing your ex is one thing in public (i.e Miami) but when she comes over for dinner and tries to steal your plate and give it to her new beau (LBJ/DWADE) that could get downright uncivilized!!! I reiterate, I’m glad this game’s not being shown on US national TV–It’s a Cdn thang– they’ll all hear bout the melee 2moro kinda like Kobe’s 81, except hopefully in reverse favour of the Raps (See:Cirque de Soleil Madness)!

    • It’s entirely possible that this game is completely over-hyped, and the game finishes without incident in a typical Raptors loss.

      Actually, replace the word “possible” with the word “likely”.

      • Really, the disqus system stuff is misbehaving guys(It keeps on an earlier text, wtf? and I can’t use my “Smushmush” moniker lol). The players are nice guys, you are not going to see a hard foul anytime soon from this guys lol. They will get punked(blowout of 30 probably with schoolyard basketball a la LeBron James’ hitting the ball on the board and going to dunk the return against the Pacers yesterday – that is ultimate schoolyard basketball and punking there lol and thuggery(after some time, you would be surprised someone like LeBron James will be guarding Bargs showing Bargs is soft and Bargs as usual will post and come off with a soft fadeway jumper lol) coupled with derision and excitement by the U.S. media tommorrow lol) and still shake their hands and hug after the game. Don’t expect some competitiveness from these guys, they are just happy to be in the NBA, collect their checks and go home lmao.

  20. Boo Colangelo, hes a total bust, Sam Mitchell was getting the most out of guys like TJ ford, Anthony Parker, then he gets stuck with Bargs, Jermaine Oneal ??? then gets canned, as if Triano (or any coach ) would have gotten us out of the first round of the playoffs, with those rosters.

  21. I hate this debate. Who cares if you boo or not if you are at tonights game? Guess what? The majority of the crowd is going to boo, so if you are just standing there in silent protest, feeling superior to all the booing cattle around you, what does that really say? Who cares? You aren’t making a profound statement on sports fandom in Toronto or a statement about Bosh’s impact during his time with the Raptors. There are lots of former Toronto athletes that return and don’t get booed. If Roy Halladay ever pitches another game in TO, he will get a 6 hour standing ovation.

    Here’s the bottom line…booing or cheering at a game is irrelevant. It is the emotion and energy of the crowd that elevates the overall atmosphere of the game. If the Raptors give the crowd a reason to cheer tonight (i.e. pull off a win!), the cheering will be louder than any of the boos. It’s all about the energy.

  22. The only time I ever recall Carter looking at all rattled by the reception in Toronto was the time that Bosh was having a great game, and the fans were giving Bosh MVP chants. To use the ex-girlfriend analogy, it’s like meeting your ex while you’re with your new, hotter, girlfriend, and you can brag about everything from her cooking skills to her sexual prowess, and show off the massive engagement ring you got your new girlfriend. That said, there’s nobody on the current Raptors roster that the fans can really get behind.

  23. Maybe instead of booing there could be “MVP” chants towards Bosh. It would be a good sarcastic way of saying that we now realize how far off we were in chanting that. And a little ironic reminder of how far off he is from ever getting one, now that he is in Miami. But then I guess you could also start chanting “Hall of Fame” or “All NBA team”, or even “All Star Starter”.

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