This is the big one: win or lose, how the Raptors play against the Bulls tonight will either validate their hot-start, or add fuel to the fire of spite from those claiming 7-1 because of poor competition…if only life were that simple, right? The reality is that Raptors handled business against weaker teams in a gifted start to the season. What we also saw in those games was that even though they were playing lesser teams, they were still playing NBA level talent, and displayed a ton of grit when things weren’t going smoothly. You have to appreciate if nothing else.
Regardless of outcome, the expectation is that they don’t rollover and let the Bulls walk over them, that they put a full four-quarters of effort, so that jokes like this aren’t told anymore…funny as they are…
This Bulls team has a lot of its own ifs as well. If Rose and Noah are healthy, if Gasol plays like it was 6 years ago, if Butler can be that second shot maker they so desperately need, if Thibs can draw up an offensive play that is inspired…in spite of all those ifs, this Bulls team has started 6-2 while Rose and Noah missing a handful of the games to injury. Concerned? You should be. Insurmountable? Nope.
Both teams have dominant point guards. Both teams have elite wings. Both teams have a big-mobile front court. Both teams are deep. Both teams are confident heading into this game. The stage is set for a solid game between two well-matched teams. Must watch national TV.
To get a sense of this Bulls team, Jason Patt from Blog a Bull lent a hand with some questions:
Sam Holako: He’s missed a couple games, but Rose has looked good early; what’s been your assessment of him?
Jason Patt: The fact that there has been Rose drama this early in the season is disappointing, but when he actually has played, he has looked much like his old self. We can throw the Bucks game out because he wasn’t close to 100 percent and probably shouldn’t have played in that game. Otherwise, he has been aggressive and explosive, and his presence is felt on both ends of the court.
Rose is currently on a minutes limit to preserve his body, so his individual numbers don’t look all that impressive. (17.5 and 5.8 on 45.3% shooting) However, he’s putting up 22.9 and 7.5 per 36 and the Bulls have been absolutely dominant when he is on the court. In the 110 minutes he has played, the Bulls have outscored opponents by 18.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com.
Rose’s full arsenal has been on display, including his array of floaters and crazy drives to the rim. The only real complaint about his offense is some questionable shot selection, as he’s taking nearly five threes a game despite making just 31.6 percent of them. Less PUJITS, please.
While most think of Rose has an offensive guy, he has made great strides on the defensive end. Heading into Monday’s game against the Pistons, Rose’s opponent counterpart PER was 6.1, according to 82games.com. Kyle Lowry will provide one hell of a test and that matchup should be fun to watch.
Sam: So as someone who took a risk on Rose in fantasy, is this early drama soreness from lack of playing the last two years, or something to be more concerned about?
Jason: First off, I took Rose in fantasy, too, so I feel your pain. I think what’s going on with Rose is basically just a new mindset he has, as evidenced by his quotes today. He’s not going to gut things out in the regular season if he’s not feeling right because he’s thinking long term. Not great for fantasy peeps for sure, but hoping it’s great for the Bulls’ championship hopes. The fact that he sprained BOTH his ankles at the same time is somewhat odd, but hoping it was more flukey than anything after landing on somebody’s foot.
Sam: So lets assume that he and Noah stay healthy, Gasol continues his beast mode, and Butler continues his early audition for the all-star game; can this team win it all this year?
Jason: If they stay healthy, the Bulls can absolutely win it all this year. They have star power, depth and the ability to be elite on both sides of the ball. Some of the kinks are still being worked out with Rose, Noah and the newcomers, but there’s some serious potential here. If things go right, they’re more balanced than the team that went to the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals and may be the favorites because of the Cavs’ weak defense.
The growth of Butler is huge. The Bulls have been looking for a legit second shot creator alongside Rose going back to when he was the MVP, and Butler might be that guy. Butler has always been able to get to the line at a solid rate, but he has improved his playmaking abilities off the bounce and his jumper looks improved after really struggling last year. If the Bulls can rely on Butler to create offense when the going gets tough down the stretch, that’ll be huge for their championship chances. I haven’t even mentioned his defense yet, and that elite wing D will be super helpful against the likes of LeBron James and DeMar DeRozan.
Sam: Klay’s assertion that he’s the best two-way shooting guard in the league clearly isn’t a forgone conclusion. So I noticed you mentioned they are favourite against the Cavs weak defense, but nothing about the Raptors…I will forgive you, but how do you match-up with us after a handful of games under our belts?
Jason: When I was writing that, I actually thought about including the Raptors in there. Heading into the season, I figured they were in that second tier, and while I ultimately think it’ll end up that way, they’re certainly making the case to join that elite tier in the East.
I haven’t had the chance to really watch the Raptors yet, but I know the team is largely the same as last year plus a couple nice additions in Lou Williams and James Johnson.
I do know Kyle Lowry continues to be awesome, and obviously the Lowry vs. Rose match-up is the one to watch. But there are good match-ups all over. The Bulls have a wing defender in Jimmy Butler to match up with DeMar DeRozan. Terrence Ross will have an athletic advantage over Mike Dunleavy, but Dunleavy is a wily vet. The starting frontcourts are both solid, and while Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are the bigger names, Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas are underrated. Both teams also have quality depth.
When you look at some of the numbers thus far, both teams are quite similar. They’re both near the top in ORtg, with the Raptors a tick more efficient because they don’t turn the ball over. On defense, the Bulls haven’t been quite as good as usual thanks to some struggles on the defensive glass, but they’re still good and the Raptors haven’t really been killing teams with offensive rebounding.
All in all, these are two evenly matched teams at the moment. I think a healthy Bulls team is better in the long run, but both teams should finish in top half of East.
Sam: What can we expect the game-plan to be tonight?
Jason: Rose always seems to rise to the challenge when playing other top point guards, so I would imagine he’ll look to be super aggressive against Lowry and try and get him in some foul trouble. Lowry means so much to the Raptors, so getting him out early would be helpful.
The Bulls have also looked to Pau a lot on offense, and I’m sure that’ll continue, although how he’s used could depend on who’s guarding him. I would think Jonas because of size and length? If that’s case maybe we see Pau on perimeter more and have Noah try and use his size advantage on Amir.
The Bulls have also been a much improved three-point shooting team this year, so watch out for that on drive-and-kicks, passes out of the post and a few bad threes that Rose will likely take.
Defensively, Rose and Butler will be counted on to shut down Lowry and DeRozan, and the bigs will try and replicate the rebounding performance from the other night when they out-rebounded the Pistons. The Bulls will ICE the crap out or PnR, so there likely won’t be many good three-point looks available, but there should be plenty of mid-range open.
I know the Raptors don’t turn the ball over much, but they gotta watch out for Butler in passing lanes. He seemingly gets a couple steals a game by aggressively playing those lanes.
Sam: There was some rumbling in the summer linking Taj with the Raptors; can you see the Bulls trading him in an effort to improve given Pau’s addition, and what would you want in return?
Jason: Even with the addition of Pau, I can’t see the Bulls trading Gibson. He has improved so much over the past few years and is very important to the what the Bulls like to do defensively. While Noah and Gasol are the starters, Gibson will still see plenty of minutes and will likely close some games depending on match-ups. Noah and Gasol also have a history with injuries, so having Gibson around is great insurance in case one or both miss time.
IF the Bulls even thought about trading Gibson, they’d likely seek some wing help. If we’re talking about a deal with the Raptors, DeRozan would obviously be the guy the Bulls would like to get, but I’m assuming that’s simply out of the question. So then you move to a talented young player in Ross, who would be intriguing. I personally wouldn’t make that trade (there would also have to be another player involved to make money work), but that’s the kind of deal I think would make some sense if they were shopping Gibson around.
Key Match-ups
Point Guard
Rose has already missed four games for a myriad of reasons, but has been aggressive when in the lineup. Lowry needs to attack him and keep him on his heels from the tip. Much like Rose, Lowry has a history of rising to the challenge; the key here will be for him to fight Rose off while creating for others in the flow of the offense. In the second unit, Vasquez will have his hands full with the speedy Brooks and wily Hinrich, but meh, I’m not so worried.
Shooting Guard
This needs to be stressed since he’s more than just a defensive presence: DeRozan will have to make do with chasing him around the court on defense, after be hounded defensively himself by Butler. I like DeRozan in this match-up with his ability to get the line, but it feels like this will be more of a wash in terms of advantage. The bulls can dress Hinrich at the two and give the Raptors something to think about with two ball handlers, but that doesn’t really strike fear into my heart either. I like Hinrich, but am surprised the dude is still playing.
Small Forward
Ross has shown flashes so far this season, but nothing resembling consistency which is exactly what can be expected from Dunleavy. Dude is taller, and can shoot over Ross, but will have to deal with him off the bounce which may not work out well for him. Johnson can be expected to step in and provide suffocating defense and the occasional brick from behind the arc, but he deserves it. While it feels like the Raptors have the edge here, i’m not convinced it’s enough to sway the game one way or another.
Front Court
Lets just lump PF an C into one big category and be a bit worried. Replacing Boozer with Gasol has been tremendous. Adding Mirotic, who could be starting, has been tremendous. Having the luxury of Gibson, who is very much like Amir, is tremendous. Lets not forget Noah. Probably the best front court in the league, and a major reason for their early season success. Amir is not 100%, so we will see a rotating door of rotation in an effort to find what works. Expect to see 2Pat and Stiemsma get extended run.
Bench
Both teams are deep, and both benches have come through in a major way so far this season. I like the Raptors on the wing a bit more, but the Bulls might have clawed some of that advantage back in the front court
Prediction
It’s nice to have stakes so early in the season, a measuring stick if you will. The Raptors have had the easier schedule, but have shown quite a bit of grit and determination; attributes that are KEY to a winning team. The Bulls have dealt with their own injury problems, but still stand at 6-2, a game behind. The fear here is that the Raptors wont come swinging out of the tip, and expect to grind their way back in the 4th quarter, which would be a bad idea. It feels like this is a game against well matched opponents, who both need to make an early statement to each other. This has the makings of a great game. The gamblers have the Raptors as 2.5 point favourites, in a low scoring affair with an over/under of 196.5, which means this is a wash with the Raptors hosting. I expect this game to come down to the wire, and be a close, defensive affair. Lowry with the game-winner; Raptors by 2.