One of the coolest things about moving to a new area of the city is exploring the new restaurants at your disposal. That means experimenting with several different offerings for the same type of food, looking to find “your place” for pizza, sushi, a sandwich, and so on. Unfortunately, it turns out that trying a bunch of nondescript sushi joints in search of “your new sushi place” is really risky. On Sunday, I got dealt a bad hand, and as a result I spent most of the night drenched in sweat and generally feeling as if I were on mescaline. The fever is real.
As feverish dreams are wont to do, this one shed some additional light on Monday’s game. The 11-2 Raptors will be hosting the 9-4 Suns at 7:30 p.m. on TSN 2, and my altered dream state revealed that an idea from earlier Sunday could very much be a reality.
Crossing my fingers for a couple minutes of Lowry-Vasquez-Williams vs. Thomas-Dragic-Bledsoe on Monday.
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) November 23, 2014
Here I was, drenched in sweat with a pounding headache and no orientation whatsoever, and the Suns and Raptors began battling in my mind. Three point guards each way, with a single wing and a single big. It was fast-paced, it was high-scoring, and it was glorious. I can only assume that my dreaming about Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams, and Greivis Vasquez taking on Isaiah Thomas, Goran Dragic, and Eric Bledsoe was a revelation that yes, it is coming.
The Raptors used that look to impressive results on Saturday against the Cleveland, the sixth game in which they’ve tried it for a couple of minutes. It’s been an incredible offensive unit in a small sample, as expected, and they’ve been careful to only use it in matchups where it couldn’t be exploited too easily. They’ve been quick with the hook for that reason, as multi-guard lineups like that are historically vulnerable defensively. Ask the Suns, who have tried using their trio together for small stretches and haven’t had the success Toronto has (sorry for the table pngs instead of tables, WordPress was being weird).
They’re tiny samples, but because both teams can match up like that, here’s hoping both Dwane Casey and Jeff Hornacek are willing to let the horses run for at least one stretch of two or three minutes. The game is about fun, not wins, after all.
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To help set the stage for the game, I reached out to redacted, who was unable to respond in time. Instead, because I was out of it anyway, I asked myself the pre-game questions about the Suns.
Blake: Funny how a quick stretch of Eastern Conference schedule can turn things around for a team. The Suns just jumped from 5-5 to 9-5, improving their record against the East to 5-1. The Suns also went 20-10 against the East last year. Obviously, the West is much tougher, but is this indicative of the Suns being very much that “fence” team that isn’t good enough out West but could kill it out East? Or is it just noise and the reality of poorly balanced conferences?
Blake: What an awful question. What are you even asking? “Good West team just alright against West, dominates East.” What a headline. No, it doesn’t really indicate anything about where they are as a team beyond that they’re in a difficult situation, and they’re good but not great. That’s a tough lot in life, since the Suns are unquestionably a top-16 team in the league but may only be a 50/50 proposition for the playoffs. The bigger issue for me is that this team seems to have a high floor and a low ceiling – that’s something that plays in the East, but in the West, your team has to be constructed such that it has an appreciable upside. I don’t think the Suns have that relative to the other top-10 West teams, and being a sure bet for 41 wins and a poor bet for more than 50 is a precarious spot out West.
Suns have been better w/ one PG (mostly Thomas) on the floor than with two (mostly Bledsoe/Dragic). pic.twitter.com/DahIESHU18 — John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) November 23, 2014
Blake: The Suns are all about the pace, with head coach Jeff Hornacek running his charges at the league’s fourth-fastest tempo. They also fire a ton of threes. Do they just shoot a lot of threes in transition, or are there other things at play with the frantic pace that opens up the long ball?
Blake: From just watching them, it seems like yes, they shoot a ton of transition threes. They shoot a lot of threes in general, and thanks to the wonder that is the new NBA.com stats database, we can get a more clear picture of exactly how the Suns get their 3-point looks, at least compared to the Raptors (I’m not pulling all 30 teams [today] for comparison purposes):
At least relative to the Raptors, the Suns seem to be focused more on quick 3-point shots. A greater percentage of their long-range looks come early in the shot clock, without a dribble, without the player holding the ball long, and are classified as wide open. That owes both a quick trigger around the floor – take the first good look you get – a plethora of options – they have nine players you’d be fine with shooting a three – and a set offense predicated on heavy ball movement.
The Raptors are a strong, smart, disciplined defense, but the Suns should prove a really good test. Toronto bases their defense on quick help and aggressive rotations, something the Suns will look to take advantage of with early shots and swings of the ball around the perimeter.
Blake: Top 100 Gerald Green alley-oops of all-time, go. (Seriously, I don’t have a question here, just wanted an excuse to add Green highlights. Comment as appropriate.)
Blake: Part of the Suns’ up-tempo attack is rolling multiple point guards at once. Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas are all great individually, and Dragic and Thomas have shown they can play together, but early returns are that the point guards are struggling relative to one-point lineups. Is this still an adjustment period 14 games in, or is there an underlying problem with the pairings, Dragic-Thomas in particular?
Suns have been better w/ one PG (mostly Thomas) on the floor than with two (mostly Bledsoe/Dragic). pic.twitter.com/DahIESHU18
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) November 23, 2014
Blake: It’s still early. The sample is somewhat small, the system worked out well last season, and this was their plan. Most of me thinks it’s just an early-season adjustment, specifically for Dragic. Dragic was a borderline All-Star last year, and when Bledsoe played, Dragic had kind of established himself as the lead dog. That hasn’t necessarily been challenged, but he’s also set to be a free agent this summer, while Bledsoe and Thomas have long-term deals. You’d forgive him for struggling with balancing all of his incentives early on. I’m fairly confident they’ll figure things out offensively, though.
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The Raptors are five-point favorites at home, which seems about right. The Raptors grade out better on offense (2nd, 11th), defense (5th, 11th), and schedule-adjusted overall performance (4th, 11th), and they’re at home and relatively healthy. James Johnson and Tyler Hansbrough remain banged up, and the Suns have a clean injury sheet, but this is a very winnable game at home.
It should be a fun one.
