This emerging narrative of how it’ll be “interesting” to see if the Raptors fare better without DeMar DeRozan needs to be put to rest. The curious amongst will be forgiven if they wonder if the Raptors offense will become more decentralized now that the player with the highest usage rate (28.6%) is on the sidelines. The blunt answer to that query is that it’ll have to be.
DeRozan is the initiator of enough possessions that his absence will force Dwane Casey into a more egalitarian offense predicated on motion rather than individual capability. Having DeRozan coming off double-screens for catch-and-shoots, setting up entire plays just so he can get a proper hand-off, and isolating him on the block has become an intrinsic part of the Raptors offense. Taking a player of his magnitude out will result in structural changes because this team, despite boasting an impressive record, isn’t yet as fluid offensively as last year’s, where parts were almost interchangeable.
The Raptors, right off the bat, will miss his free-throw shooting because he’s the only wing that can drive and draw fouls at the rim consistently. Lou Williams tends to draw his using trickery in mid-range areas, and Lowry prefers to goad his opponents into pump-fakes that draw body contact. It remains to be seen whether the post-up game Lowry’s shown of late is an interlude or something more permanent. It’s unrealistic for these two to fill in and sustain the Raptors’ second ranked FT rate (FT/FGA – .284) with DeRozan’s 8.3 FTs out of the lineup. These will have to come from elsewhere.
DeRozan’s shooting only 39% (25% from three) and has an absolute garbage TS of 49%. Yet, he’ll be missed in the offense because it’s the amount of attention he gets from the defense that the Raptors rely on. He is, to a large degree, responsible for the clean looks Terrence Ross gets, the lack of double teams Lowry faces, and the spacing on the floor which allows Amir Johnson to operate in pick ‘n roll play. The casualties of his absence go beyond individual point production and affect the greater Raptors offense.
The natural replacement for DeRozan in the starting lineup would be Lou Williams, who had just started to find a rhythm being very productive off the bench. Losing DeRozan becomes a double-whammy because not only do the Raptors lose a productive starter that was only beginning to get the calls from the officials, but it also impacts a bench unit that was quickly becoming an advantage against almost any opponent.
Williams is a good ball-handler that has used his strong handles to become a very effective face-up player, and someone you can bank on to pull the offense in short stretches. He may put pressure on whoever’s guarding him, but he does not put pressure on the overall defense because his scope is limited. He is a perfect bench player and, I reckon, should stay that way. If the Raptors still had a shooting guard available, even Jordan Hamilton, he would’ve been a more suitable replacement because it would minimize bench impact.
In regards to the starting lineup, an experiment of having James Johnson start the game would cause less overall disruption. It would improve the defense in the starting lineup, and allow Ross to guard shooting guards which he should have less trouble with. Johnson has shown enough maturity that he could be trusted in this role, one where he would be asked to replicate DeRozan’s focus on driving the ball, which Johnson has shown to do this year. Of course, it wouldn’t be at the same level as DeRozan but that’s just the price you pay.
Without DeRozan the Raptors also don’t have a steady pivot from which their offense can operate from, forcing them into a style of play that stretches the defense instead of overpowering it. Lacking great drivers of the ball who can finish at the rim or get fouled, this puts an even greater emphasis on shooting. The Raptors offense may be ranked second in the league, but they’re 16th in three-point shooting, and 19th in two-point shots greater than 16 feet. Essentially, the two types of shots that they’re likely to get more of in DeRozan’s absence is something they’ve been mediocre at.
One solution is that players like Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, and Greivis Vasquez start producing more consistently, and more specifically, start hitting the shots they are more likely to get: mid-range to long-distance jumpers. Patterson has struggled all season with that, Johnson’s injury set him back after he was coming on strong, and Vasquez is just regaining his offense after bouts of inconsistency.
Patterson and Vasquez need to get to where they were last year. Leave aside the hate that PER gets because it remains a pretty good indicator of offensive production, and it tells us that Patterson is down 2.4 points (16.2 to 13.8), and Vasquez is down 1.3 points (14.2 to 12.9) from last season. If these two players can form that oh-so-talked-about chemistry and start having good interplay again, it’ll prevent the Raptors offense from sputtering and go some ways in compensating for DeRozan’s points.
If you think spreading DeRozan’s offense across the subs sounds a stretch, I don’t blame you. The real elephant in the room is Jonas Valanciunas. His per-game scoring and PER36 numbers are up, yet he hasn’t influenced the game enough. He’s still plagued by that pump-fake which can only fool a defender who was too lazy to read the one-page scouting report, and the yield from his post-up opportunities is not high.
On one hand, he hasn’t been given enough of a consistent focus in the offense, on the other he hasn’t exactly appeared to deserve it either. Tim Chisholm spoke about the Raptors becoming too good, too soon for Valanciunas, and DeRozan’s injury puts an even greater spotlight on him, because he’s the starter that is most capable of going some ways in replacing DeRozan’s points and impact.
A usage rate of 19% is a career-high and adequate for him, so it’s more to do with how he’s used than how much he’s used. The narrative that he’s not a good finisher near the rim is unfounded. Approximately 51% of his shots are within 0-3 feet, which is up from 42% last season. He’s shooting 68% from that range which is up from 66% last season. Comparatively, Joakim Noah is at 48% and Roy Hibbert is at 64%. Valanciunas is also significantly better than both of them in the 3-10 feet range as well. I find that the bad games he has (like against Dallas) stick out more in memory than the solid performances he has, and it’s a question of tasking him with greater responsibility rather than waiting him to arrive at some undefined level before we call him ‘ready’.
The lack of pick ‘n roll plays where Valanciunas is involved is a little appalling, because that is his strength. Perhaps the Raptors haven’t excelled with him there because it’s never been drilled enough. After all, with players like Lowry and DeRozan in the form they’ve been, I’d almost forgive Casey for ignoring it. Instead, we’ve seen a lot of face-up play and the occasional post-up opportunity, which is all well and good, but it fails to leverage a key strength of Valanciunas, something he’s displayed since his very early days in Europe.
Maybe with more ball-handling in the lineup in the form of Lou Williams (assuming they go with him), will mean that Valanciunas will get more opportunities to roll rather than just run with his head down into rebounding position, knowing the ball’s going to be swung around.
Surprisingly enough to some, DeRozan’s defense has been above average. His play has been much more context aware in a help-conscious defense, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find instances where he’s lapsing in team coverages or in one-on-one situations, both of which were easy to spot last year. I don’t find this to be a terrible miss if James Johnson steps in, but in the case of Lou Williams, the Raptors will feel an impact because the latter’s defensive play (especially when paired with Vasquez) has been a little alarming.
In short, it requires under-performing players to step up, and I glossed over Patterson, Vasquez, Williams, Johnson, and Valanciunas, but perhaps the biggest culprit here is Terrence Ross. He’s making a stronger case for himself as a designated three-point shooter rather than a multi-faceted player, and the reason I didn’t dwell on him too much is that I find it unreasonable and not within Ross’s current skill set, confidence level, or approach to the game, that he come even close to filling in DeRozan’s production.
I realize that this post is posing more questions than providing answers, but that’s what Casey’s mind-set is right now. He’s asking himself how it’s possible to maintain starter-level production without sacrificing second-unit continuity,and just how he can compensate for DeRozan in clutch situations, which you could argue, is his strongest attribute.
Stats provided by Basketball Reference and 82 Games.
