The Toronto Raptors won in Sacramento last night, putting an end to a two game losing streak. Toronto has managed to not lose three consecutive games since Rudy Gay was shipped to Sacramento, and look to continue their winning ways against a Utah Jazz team that can’t seem to get their young talent to mesh together.
Utah, much like the rest of the NBA, has not been a historically friendly franchise for the Raptors to play against, having lost 25 of their 36 matches against the Jazz. This of course goes back to the day when John Stockton and Karl Malone wreaked havoc on the newly minted franchise.
Thankfully, things have changed recently as the Raptors have won the last three matches between the franchises, including a 111-93 victory against the visiting Jazz earlier this season. One has to go back to the dark days of Il Mago to find the last Jazz win against Toronto, a 131-99 destruction that saw Andrea Bargnani and Paul Millsap each score a game high 20 points.
Toronto now aims to take advantage of a reeling Jazz team that has won just two of their last ten games, and is currently on a six game losing streak. The last six games has seen Utah lose by less than five points to the Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, and a Denver Nuggets team that has rebounded from a disastrous start to the season. Utah has been putting up a legitimate fight against tough competition, and shouldn’t be a pushover for a Raptors squad that is without its top scorer in DeMar DeRozan.
DeRozan’s loss has been evident over the past three games, which saw Toronto lose their first two games without him (counting the Dallas game where he left early due to injury) to double their loses on the season. For all the complaints that many Raptor fans share in regards to DeRozan, he is a big reason for Toronto’s success over the past year. His flaws (too many mid-range jumpers, can get tunnel vision at times, etc.) often appear to outweigh his strengths (scoring, drawing fouls, work ethic, setting a tone for teammates, etc.), but even on his off shooting nights DeMar has made a point this season of contributing in any way possible (his defensive effort on LeBron James earlier this season was nothing short of remarkable).
DeMar’s absence may be even more noticeable against a Utah team that he has historically feasted on, with career averages of 21.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists.
When looking at the Jazz, I can’t help but see a roster full of promise but also full of mismatching pieces. I like the majority of their players (Gobert in particular), but really wonder how they can fit together. They have a young and promising front court featuring Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Haywaard, and Rudy Gobert, who all showing individual promise. Their front court is matched by several guards that can each go off on any given night in Trey Burke, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum.
But this has been their story for the past several years. They keep adding young talent, but still always seem incomplete. The Jazz need to hope that Exum takes the leap to stardom like many expect, otherwise their future might be one long treadmill.
This game is made all the more challenging due to the fact the Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back. So far this season, Toronto is 4-0 on the first night of a back-to-back, and 2-1 on the second. The second game of a back-to-back is always tough, particularly when Toronto’s defensive efforts last night meant they had to fight till the very last possession.
Positional Breakdown:
Guards: Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez – Trey Burke, Alec Burks
It seems logical for the Raptors to bring James Johnson into the starting line-up to counter Hayward, but this would have seemed logical against Rudy Gay last night as well. Dwane Casey is determined to maintain a consistent starting line-up with DeRozan’s absence, which means that Vasquez is likely to remain as the starting shooting guard for the time being.
Burke and Burks, which sounds like a very strange law firm, is a surprisingly effective guard pairing. The two are both able to facilitate off the dribble, and both are shooting above 30 percent from long distance. 12.1 percent of Burks’ shot are three point catch-and-shoot attempts, where he is shooting 37.5 percent.
Edge: Raptors. Lowry has the chance to dominate Burkes, and Vasquez is finally finding his shot.
Front Court: Terrence Ross, Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas – Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter
As I earlier, I like each of the individual pieces of Utah’s front court, but can’t see how they fit together as a unit. If Kanter can show a consistent ability to hit a three pointer then his pairing with Favors starts to look a little more logical. Without the ability to stretch the floor though, the two are merely lane clogging presences together.
The interesting piece will be to see how Ross handles the defensive assignment of guarding. Hayward is averaging over 23 points over his last five games, despite having a six point outing against Chicago on November 24.
Edge: Valanciunas and Kanter have been playing against one another since they were teens, and Jonas loves the challenge of facing his childhood foe. I expect a big performance from Valanciunas, considering he finished with 17 points and 14 rebounds in his last game against the Jazz.
Bench: James Johnson, Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes – Dante Exum, Jeremy Evans, Rodney Hood, Trevor Booker, Rudy Gobert
The Jazz have no one on their bench who can match up with Lou Williams. The Captain is coming into tonight’s match-up in Utah on a roll, and I see no reason why he can’t take advantage of the additional minutes he will see against Utah due to DeRozan’s absence.
Patterson could also give fits to Utah’s big men who prefer not to have to guard on the perimeter.
Edge: Huge advantage for Toronto unless Dante Exum can have a breakout game.
Keys to Winning:
1. Let Utah Do What They Want On Offense
The Jazz have attempted exactly 1400 shots to date on the season, of which 722 are considered jump shots. Utah is a team that you want shooting the ball, as they currently shoot an atrocious 30.7 percent on their jump shots, by far their worst type of shot.
2. Prevent the Drive
Utah has their most success when driving the lane. They have attempted 79 driving layups, and have shot 72.2 percent on these attempts. This doesn’t even account for the offense that is created based on wing penetration.
The lighting quick Trey Burke, and the crafty Gordon Hayward are particularly dangerous in this regard. James Johnson and Kyle Lowry will need to be at their defensive best at preventing the point of initial attack.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Going into last night’s game against Sacramento, Toronto had the second best turnover differential in the entire NBA, causing 5.1 more turnovers than they commit. Utah on the other hand has the third worst turnover differential at 3.0.
