Jonas Valanciunas is written about constantly, and still remains a mystery to be figured out. At 22 years of age, Jonas is already in his third year in the NBA and is central to the Raptors goals, both immediate and future.
As a fan, it’s tough for me to keep perspective. I keep expecting him to make ‘the leap’ into the star that I fully believe he can become, and yet the progress appears slow and steady even at the fastest moments.
Glimpses are available. We get to watch him light up the Detroit Pistons and Andre Drummond to the tune of 20 points and 11 rebounds in just 28 minutes in their most recent match, or their previous game that saw Jonas get 31 points and 12 rebounds.
Of players who have attempted a minimum of six shots per game, Jonas currently has the sixth best field goal percentage on the season (minimum 20 games played). Of these players, only Dwight Howard (11FGA) has attempted taken more attempted more shots than Jonas’ 8.1 per game.
The five players who rank ahead of Jonas? DeAndre Jordan, Hassan Whiteside, Amir Johnson(!!!), Mason Plumlee, and Dwight Howard.
His efficiency is incredible and should be celebrated, and extends to the free throw line as well. Despite attempting just 3.7 shots per game from the charity stripe (comparable to DeAndre’s 3.8, far fewer than Plumlee’s 4.6 or Dwight’s 6.9), only Dwight Howard from this group has made more free throws on a per game basis than Jonas. This is due to the simple fact that Jonas hits his free throws at a rate of 80.6 percent, while all others from this group (save for Amir) have failed to break 56 percent.
His offence has been brilliant, and this despite the number of times he gets looked off by the Raptors’ guards.
But what has held Valanciunas back so far in his career has been his defense. He has clearly struggled at times on the season, has the third worst fourth quarter +/- on the Raptors (ahead of only Landry Fields and Lucas Nogueira), and has been slow to rotate in help situations.
This is the reason why Casey has barely played minutes in the fourth quarter this season, having appeared in the fourth quarter just 35 times this season, compared to the 51 games he has played.
And as Casey has been apt to remind us of, his players need to earn their playing time through their defense (and yet Vasquez gets a free pass…).
Some of that appears to be changing though. Valanciunas has shown significant strides of late in regards to his defense, as the last five games as shown an elite level of rim protection from Jonas.
Opponents have shot 30% at rim (9-for-30) against Jonas Valanciunas past 5 games. Ultra elite stretch since 45% considered solid, 35% great
— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) February 9, 2015
Even if you extend this range to six feet from the basket, Jonas is still allowing his opponents to shoot just 38.1 percent over the last five games. This means that he is forcing his opponents to shoot 23.2 percent below their season averages within six feet.
Look at the players that Valanciunas has battled during this stretch. Marcin Gortat, Nene, John Henson, Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, Aron Baynes, Tiago Splitter, and Tim Duncan.
This current run isn’t against second rate players. Valanciunas has more than held his own against some potent offensive players, while also increasing his rebounding rate form 18.5 percent to 20.8 percent.
Small sample sizes be damned sometimes. It’s just five games, but when talking about a young player it’s important to recognize moments of growth…and this might be one of them for Jonas.
If Jonas can develop into an elite (or even near elite) rim protector (his law of verticality is getting much improved this season), the Raptors could be transformed as a team.
No one can reasonably expect Valanciunas to continue to provide this level of rim protection, considering he has allowed his opponents to shoot 55.4 percent within six feet on the season. But even if Jonas can find a middle ground between these season long numbers and his elite numbers form the last five games, the Raptors will have to consider this season a success for Jonas’ development.
