Kyle Lowy’s struggles and his frustration with himself have been well-documented in this series. His return from back injury during the last four games of the season saw him play heavy minutes to the tune of 33, 36, 35 and 37 in games that were, more or less, meaningless. After picking up a contusion in Game 2, the Raptors star-guard is now struggling for form and fitness, and not helped by facing a backcourt that has proven to be too quick and too nimble for Lowry. (BTW, anybody remember the “best backcourt in the East” argument which just sounds plain silly now).
There is no defensive relief for Lowry, either he’s matched up with John Wall who has no trouble getting past him, or he’s switched onto a bigger guy like Bradley Beal. The latter has made it a point to use his three-point threat to setup drives, all the while making his defenders run through bruising Nene and Marcin Gortat screens. Facing elite competition, Lowry has had no place to hide on defense, and coupled with his lingering injury, mismanagement of his return from that injury, he’s left to find his offense without being at 100%.
Lowry’s offense is predicated on short bursts of speed that get him past defenders, hard pull-ups to setup in-rhythm shots, and three-point shooting. Right now he doesn’t have the speed to blow-by defenders, his pull-up is out of rhythm, and his three-point shot is being contested with an offer to drive at the heart of Washington’s formidable frontline. In the absence of a structured offense where he could play a part instead of being forced to star, Lowry’s left to find his points in a context he’s very unfamiliar with and unprepared for.
All form is temporary, and you can attribute his subpar performances to bad circumstance. What’s been more disappointing, however, are the mental mistakes he’s making, and his reaction to making mistakes. I’ll forgive him for his Game 1 performance and write it off to playoff jitters, but it’s very difficult for me to look past why he made the same mistakes in a must-win game with three full days to think about things in between.
Incessant gambling aside, the three fouls he picked up in Game 2 jeopardized his team and were all avoidable if only minimal precaution and thought would have been taken.
Let’s look at his first foul, where fairly early in the game he’s one-on-one with Wall who has just caught the ball. Instead of laying off Wall, he’s forcing him baseline and bodying him, which is a call a ref will make 10/10 times. In space, nobody in this league can guard John Wall, let alone Lowry. His recognition of his surroundings here is poor and Wall coaxes him into an easy foul. Remember, the Wizards after Game 1 were publicly saying how they made it a point to get Lowry out of the game, and even with that knowledge, he’s made a silly error.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhXHQll9mYA
His second is a drop in concentration. There’s no reason to trail John Wall this closely through tight spaces. You’ve already picked up one foul, you know how early foul trouble hurt you in Game 1, and you still invite Wall to draw the easiest foul ever – all Wall has to do is slow down and there’s a trip. Again 10/10 times this gets called. John Wall took him to school here, and Lowry’s frustration after the fact isn’t to do with disagreement with the call, it’s really with himself for allowing to be baited like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXqmIFUt6VY
The third is possibly the most frustrating of the three, because it shows just how disorganized the Raptors defense is. Why DeRozan and Lowry have opted for a switch on the weak side is plain weird, because it’s resulted in Sessions being checked by DeRozan, and the bigger Otto Porter Jr., by Lowry. Porter’s great movement results in a 1-v-1 underneath the rim, and Lowry’s on the wrong side of Porter. He reaches and again, 10/10 times this is a foul. DeRozan’s reaction says it all – he’s frustrated like us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRszJ4ARfoM
These mental mistakes are what are plaguing Kyle Lowry, and hurting the Raptors.
With 14 games to go in the regular season, Casey made it a public point to prepare his team for the post-season by tuning up their defense and concentration levels. What we’re seeing right now is a complete failure in preparation, both situational and game-level, and how little we accomplished in those last 14 games despite plenty of warning signs.
As with anything in this series, I don’t have much hopes of the Raptors correcting their ways, because at this point you are what you are. The goal of the regular season is to develop good habits, establish repeatable patterns for success, and sharpen reflexes to deal with adversity, and the Raptors haven’t done that. They’ve rode the heat wave to a record 49 wins, and when circumstances have turned south, their answer is “more of the same, but only better”. To repeat that in a 7-game series where a set of scouts, assistant coaches, and video room guys have had a chance to dissect your simplistic style of play, the odds are stacked against you.
My call for this series was Wizards in 6 and I’m sticking to it, because there’s a good chance that the Raptors, like they have all season, will get hot just on account of having good individual offensive players and the law of averages. It just won’t be for long enough to accomplish anything meaningful.
