Nobody will blame you if you find yourself second-guessing just where Jonas Valanciunas fits into the Raptors big picture. The big man seems to constantly sway between being the future centerpiece of this team ahead of DeMar DeRozan, and trade bait for a modern-day center who can play in the “new” NBA, whatever that means.
He’s had a string of performances where one is convinced that the Raptors offense is best suited to go through Valanciunas, because of his ability to get high-percentage shots near the rim. That feeling is quickly offset when, in the next game, you see a pesky guard double him three times in the exact same way and cause three turnovers, and you’re left wondering where Valanciunas’ awareness and IQ went, why he is so robotic, and why he can’t adjust his moves to account for the defense.
Then there are occasions where, despite having strong scoring and rebounding numbers, he’s been relegated to the bench with the loose, unproven theory being that he’s a negative on defense. On closer inspection, you realize that his guards are letting him hung out to dry, with his mobility and interior defense against penetrators being tested which he’s failing at. Despite being a good rim-protector against other centers, the coverage he provides against guards who are rampaging towards the rim ends up earning him a bench seat.
The frustration and confusion surrounding Valanciunas comes from three angles. First, it’s that he tends to disappear in games, where he should have a greater influence on account of his size alone, for example in the last two playoff series where was a complete dud. Regardless of whether plays are being called for him (they’re not), his activity levels tend to fluctuate and he cuts a forlorn figure on the court, who looks a step out of position each time. When he’s anonymous defensively, is when his offensive troubles are compounded and he’s missing put-backs and chippies that he should easily finish, creating a vicious circle of confidence loss. It’s not helped that, unlike Ross, Lowry, DeRozan, or Patterson, he has to look over his shoulder because when he’s not performing there are playing time consequences for him (not so much for others).
The second is that despite showing that he can be a potent offensive threat, Dwane Casey simply hasn’t been able to establish Valanciunas as a piece that other teams have to worry about, despite the Lithaunian showing enough to warrant further inclusion in the team’s offense. Whether it be mismanaged playing time, odd substitution patterns, commitment to going small even when it’s failing, Casey has struggled to get the most out of Valanciunas. And if a coach’s responsibility is the maximize the production given a set of resources, this is an area where Casey has largely failed when it comes to the third-year center. A usage rate which is more than 9% behind team leader, DeMar DeRozan, continues to surprise given the imbalance in the Raptors offense, which is third in the league in pull-up threes, second in pull-up jumpers, and is second in taking shots with 18 or more seconds on the clock. It boils down to Dwane Casey wanting to play a faster style of basketball which doesn’t fit Valanciunas who prefers being set up from an organized half-court set.
Finally, and most alarmingly, is that Valanciunas’ development has slowed down, or at least, he hasn’t resolved issues that he should be past at this point in his career. With the caveat that big men take longer to develop and come to their final form, Valanciunas’s progression from promising rookie to potential All-Star has a hit a roadblock. The situations which were troublesome for him in his rookie year, continue to be at the end of his third year.
He hasn’t progressed in how he reacts to being quickly double-teamed, and looks panic-stricken if a guard is in his vicinity (that is, if he even notices him). His passing continues to be non-existent in all situations. Kicking out from the post, elbow reads, and hi-lo sequences are in very short supply, and the only pass he makes at a somewhat average level is when he’s driving to left-to-right for a hook and passes it back to the top of the key (love how he thinks he’s faking the defense out by looking at the rim whilst making the pass). His positional awareness has improved slightly, but he still finds himself picking up too many fouls by contesting for rebounds with his arms rather than his feet. In short, it’s very hard to pinpoint just what he’s learned from the Raptors, and if anything, his international play is where you see Valanciunas display something new.
The combination of promise he’s shown along with the sense of frustration he evokes have many of us wondering what his true potential is in today’s NBA. He’s not as imposing as DeMarcus Cousins, isn’t the passer Joakim Noah is, doesn’t have the strength of Dwight Howard, will never be a stretch center, and doesn’t have the defensive mobility of Tyson Chandler, and perhaps may never get to those levels. He doesn’t warrant a full offense run around him, but at the same time is getting the short end of the stick given his production.
In Valanciunas’ perfect world, the Raptors would be tanking right now and he’d be getting 35 guaranteed minutes and affordance to make mistake after mistake, while he learns some basic elements of the game, ideally under a coach with a track record of player development. Obviously we’re not tanking, so the setting for his development isn’t there (something that was afforded to DeMar DeRozan). Based on the evidence of three years under Casey and his staff, his development appears to be going at a very slow rate, with Valanciunas often being singled out in press conferences and interviews as a culprit in a horribly flawed defensive setup. As the Raptors mull over offering him an extension, or picking up his $4.6M qualifying offer, his agent just might advise him to consider alternatives, if not for money’s sakes, then simply to find him an environment where he’s getting consistent, predictable minutes.
Valanciunas has also remained injury free player despite carrying a sizable frame and going up against the strongest players on the court. He’s missed three games in the last two years, having played 81 and 80 games, respectively. His ability to stay healthy and the glimpses he’s provided in his first three years will undoubtedly attract a suitor who would be willing to pay anywhere in the $8-10M dollar range, which would be a bargain deal given the upcoming cap increase. As much as the Raptors have a decision to make on what to do with Valanciunas, which should also consider whether Casey even wants to bother dealing with an entity he’s shown he has little idea on how to manage, it just might be that it’s Valanciunas who opts for a situation where he’s trusted and respected.
