Tough decisions lay ahead with DeMar DeRozan, who is likely one year away from becoming a free agent.
When we first introduced to DeMar DeRozan, he was a raw and green 20-year-old. He wasn’t much more than an tremendous athlete with big hops and an even bigger heart. But over the span of six trying seasons, Raptors fans have watched him blossom into an All-Star and a willing leader. His development is one of a small handful of success stories in franchise history.
Watching him come into his own has been incredibly rewarding. He’s far from perfect, but he started with very little. In his rookie season, DeRozan’s only skill was attacking the basket. From that, he hammered away at his jumpshot until he forged it into a weapon to wield against bigger defenders. He developed a post-game to bully smaller defenders. He’s even shown flashes of becoming a better distributor against double-teams, while remaining one of the league’s best at getting to the free-throw line.
When Bryan Colangelo inked DeRozan to a four-year extension in 2012, Colangelo and the Raptors were roundly mocked. In all fairness, DeRozan didn’t deserve the contract when he signed it. The stats showed that he was nothing but a one-dimensional volume scorer who couldn’t defend, nor shoot. But DeRozan stuck to his mantra and put his nose to the grindstone. He submitted his finest work over the past two seasons, averaging 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists on 36.8 minutes per game. He lived up to his contract and far exceed what was expected of him. For his efforts, DeRozan has been named as an All-Star and to Team USA’s 2014 FIBA squad.
But that deal is quickly running out. DeRozan has one season remaining at $9.5 million for 2015-16 and a player option that he will surely reject in 2016-17. With the cap scheduled to skyrocket to $90 million that year and as high as $110 million the year thereafter, DeRozan is slated for a significant raise.
For all intents and purposes, DeRozan will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, which leaves the Raptors and Masai Ujiri at a crossroads.
For all his improvements, DeRozan’s game still leaves a lot to be desired. He has some pretty damning shortcomings.
Efficiency — specifically, low efficiency — has come to define DeRozan’s abilities as a scorer. It’s not entirely on his shoulders. He has not played with a lot of talent around him, nor has he played in particularly effective schemes.
But facts are facts. Over half of DeRozan’s field-goal attempts originate from the mid-range, where he shoots around 40 percent. He gets to the line a ton, but he rarely launches threes, nor can he hit them with any kind of consistency. In an era where teams are gravitating towards a pace-and-space attack built upon getting threes, to the basket, or to the line, DeRozan only checks off two of the criteria, while taking plenty off the table with his mid-range chucking.
DeRozan’s skillset is diverse. He can do a lot of things on offense. He’s developed into a passable ball-handler and a capable (though not particularly effective) attacker off the pick-and-roll. He’s shown the ability to create for teammates and is lethal when he gets enough daylight to attack the basket. He can finish with both hands around the hoop and knows how to coax contact. He has an effective post-up game to exploit switches, and he is a good spot-up shooter, especially inside the arc.
However, DeRozan has shown little indication that he can be the proverbial number one guy. He has never once posted an above-average true-shooting percentage mark. He scores in high volume, but he doesn’t exactly have an unbeatable move, either. Wings like James Harden and LeBron James can always get themselves to the basket when their jumpers aren’t working. DeRozan isn’t like that. He doesn’t have the requisite ball-handling skills to beat double-teams or bigger defenders. That’s why players like Jimmy Butler, Joe Johnson and even Otto Porter can routinely shut him down. Worse comes to worst, opposing defenses can double DeRozan on the perimeter, which almost assuredly bottles him up.
At the same time, DeRozan also lacks the requisite skills to be a complementary piece. He can’t shoot from deep and the ball has a tendency to stick in his hands. That’s basically death for perimeter players in the modern NBA. DeRozan also only tops out at a good defender, so it’s not like he’s shutting down players the way a jumper-less Tony Allen does. That makes DeRozan an awkward fit, both in terms of being a leading man and as a supporting character. He has plenty of skills, but he doesn’t quite fit a prescribed role.
The trick with DeRozan, however, is that he can always be counted on to improve. It’s one of the positive narratives surrounding DeRozan’s career and the most popular among Raptors fans and broadcasters. He has improved every season, however marginally.
The next item on DeRozan’s to-do-list should be to improve his 3-point shooting. That should have been at the top of his list all along, but he chose to work on his post game and ball-handling instead. That’s fine, but the biggest improvement for DeRozan needs to come from outside the arc. If he adds that to his game, DeRozan would truly rank among the best at his position.
We caught a glimpse of fully-formed DeRozan towards the end of the year. From March onwards, DeRozan averaged 24 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 40 percent from the 3-point line. That came with an assist percentage of 20 percent and a true-shooting percentage of 55.7. Those are All-Star marks. He flashed signs of being a competent 3-point shooter from the corners, while dropping a handful of impressive dimes.
There’s also a note to be made about coaching and teammates. DeRozan has never played within a particularly inventive system, nor has he played second fiddle to a star. The closest he came to both was a bit in the dreaded Jay Triano era and logging time alongside 2014 Kyle Lowry. There’s a throught that if DeRozan wasn’t either (a) forced or (b) not encouraged to play isolation, that he would improve and become more effective. He hasn’t exactly been given a lot to work with.
Taken together, there’s a basis for DeRozan to improve. He’s one key skill away from becoming a perennial All-Star and that’s come without much help. For a hard-working player who has proven to be tremendously healthy — save for a freak injury this season — and a solid locker-room presence, there’s plenty to like about DeRozan.
DeRozan will likely net himself something close to a maximum contract on the open market. With the cap exploding in 2016, almost every team figures to have cap room at their disposal. DeRozan is slated to hit free agency at the right time.
The tough decision, then, falls on the shoulders of Masai Ujiri. If DeRozan is a core piece and worth that price to the Raptors, Ujiri should stay the course. If not, Ujiri needs to seriously consider moving him this offseason, lest risking that DeRozan walks next summer (of course, Ujiri could also pull a repeat of the Nene situation). DeRozan’s deal makes him both affordable and easy to move and his skillset should hold plenty of intrigue to contenders and pretenders alike. The Pelicans, Kings, Suns, Pistons, Grizzlies (highly unlikely as John Hollinger is there), Celtics and Hornets could all stand to add a player like DeRozan for $9.5 million.
By extension, what Ujiri decides with DeRozan will double as what he feels about his team, as currently constructed. Holding onto DeRozan means he intends to compete with this group. Dealing DeRozan means a major overhaul is needed. There is a case to be made for both sides, but he must carefully weigh his options, lest he leads the Raptors down the wrong path.
