Something caught my eye on Twitter this morning. The NBA season begins today, and so it’s the day most people post their predictions for the season. For the most part, the predictions about the Raptors all fell in to one of two groups: A high-40s win total and a shot at second in the East, or a mid-40s win total and a scuffle for home-court advantage in the first round.
Mike Prada, a most excellent NBA editor at SB Nation, stood out. His 38-44 prediction – the only one I saw that had the Raptors finishing outside of the playoffs – was actually the impetus for me deciding to do a roundup of all of the predictions out there.
These are sure to be wrong, but here goes. Made some last-minute changes from yesterday’s picks. pic.twitter.com/RqX9mJqt2W
— Mike Prada (@MikePradaSBN) October 27, 2015
Prada was clear in replies that the Toronto pick was the pick he felt worst about in the group, and that it was the most likely one to be wrong. Even forgetting that admission, taking a strong stance against the status quo is entirely justifiable, given the questions surrounding the team. I was curious as to why he felt so strongly, though. I land on the far more negative side of the ledger for the Raptors outlook, and I pegged them for 44 wins (the average I found was 46.1).
And so I reached out. Mike was kind enough to give some insight into his thought process. Our exchange is below.
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Blake: I wanted to reach out about your prediction for the Raptors: 38-44, ninth in the East.
I definitely understand having concerns over the team as currently constructed, and there are some questions that need answering on both ends. They’re also thin, meaning they’re an injury or two from relying way too heavily on guys who aren’t ready. I was fairly pessimistic, relative to the norm, at 44-38 (the average of the predictions I collected was 46.1 wins).
Still, 38 seems extreme, and the Raptors falling out of the playoffs isn’t a scenario I think many have considered. I know you said immediately that you were less certain on that pick than others, but even if you altered it, you’d still come out on the pessimistic end. What is it about the Raptors that has you worried enough to predict a double-digit win drop?
Mike: It’s totally extreme and I’m already regretting it. I made a decision that I’d only have one Atlantic Division team in the playoffs and Boston for some reason impressed me more at the moment I tweeted. I could flip flop on that every day now.
I worry about a few things. One, Lowry looks great now but he came out of the gates strong last year and wore down. I know he’s in significantly better shape this time around but I question how he holds up over the course of a season given the way he plays. As he goes, so do the Raptors, so if he’s worn down again, they will fall.
I actually support the decision to let Amir Johnson walk, but I’m still not convinced Jonas Valanciunas can anchor a defense. His cover is no longer there, and with Patrick Patterson getting the power forward minutes (along with Scola who may actually help them quite a bit, hell I’d consider starting him), they need Valanciunas to take a leap that I’m not convinced he can.
I’m also worried about DeRozan — if he can’t regain the form of two years ago, will he get anxious with his contract situation? And will Masai keep him around all year if that’s the case? Maybe the Raptors get a Rudy Gay-like bump if they deal him, but I think it’s more likely they take a step back if they trade him after a slow start. That slow start seems possible with 11 of their first 15 on the road. (Contract situation worries also apply to Terrence Ross if he isn’t extended). Their wing depth is a little shaky beyond their core 3 and I don’t think they have enough wing depth to play Carroll at the 4 for big minutes, which to me is their best option.
All that said, there are plenty of reasons to like Toronto. They are significantly better defensively on the wing (both with their additions and losing LouWill and Vasquez), Lowry looks great and Valanciunas is still young. It wouldn’t stun me if they finished with 50 wins, which is why I hated that call the minute I made it. But I think one of TOR and BOS misses the playoffs and I like Boston’s depth more, especially with how well Marcus Smart is playing.
Like I said, I’m probably wrong.
Blake: I hear you on most of this. A few follow-ups, if I may.
Do you think your negativity about the Raps has anything to do with you being a Wizards fan? Is it possible seeing the Raptors at their absolute worst (in the playoffs last year) has made it difficult to buy in to any positive changes?
I’m terrified of the Scola-Valanciunas frontcourt. I know it’ll help the rebounding, but the scheme changes can help with that, too, and the pairing has struggled defensively in the preseason. The defense depends more on Valanciunas than the power forward alongside him, of course, but I’m more concerned with the four. Less so if they could play DeMarre Carroll there for long stretches, but short of being willing to play Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Carroll-Valanciunas (their best lineup in my opinion) and going against their edict of playing DeRozan much at the three, I agree the wing depth doesn’t allow for it.
I definitely think a DeRozan trade is within the realm of possibility. He’s a really tough guy to evaluate entering free agency in the current cap environment. He’s worth more than he’s getting now, but a $25M-max for a moderate-efficiency volume scorer who’s only average or a shade above defensively seems a good way to handcuff yourself moving forward. As for the start, it’s not only 11 of 15 on the road – pros or otherwise, turning over four members of the nine-man rotation could lead to a slow start, especially on offense.
I have both Boston and Toronto in the playoffs. I love Smart, and I think Stevens can work a strong defense despite the limited frontcourt (save for Amir) thanks to the aggression they can employ on the perimeter. I know the Atlantic’s bad, but I think both can get in.
Man, 38-50 is such a wide range. This could be a weird season.
Mike: I would hope not with respect to the Wizards but I’m not in the easiest position to judge. It’s my job to pay attention to everyone and I do that, so it’s certainly not due to a lack of knowledge. Worth noting that I did pick Toronto to win last year’s first-round series.
I think Scola is very underrated defensively — he quietly did a really nice job for Indiana last year. But he is old and doesn’t have great foot speed, so I see the concerns. If they had one more quality wing, I’d feel better about their chances, but I don’t think Joseph is a good enough spot-up shooter to thrive playing next to Lowry.
They could absolutely both get in. I don’t have that, but it’s possible. It’s gonna be a weird, weird year.
Blake: (I’m sorry if the Wizards Q came off as me suggesting a lack of knowledge, not my intent at all. Just meant subconsciously…I’m still having trouble shaking that awful series off when asked if they can win a series this year.)
Joseph’s shooting is interesting to me. His percentages have improved in tiny samples, he’s a good free-throw shooter, and he was decent in college and the D-League. So, of course, he barely shot in the preseason and struggled with Team Canada. Factor in Lowry’s poor outside shooting last year (probably a one-year blip), and I see your concern, for sure.
Mike: It’s a fair question, don’t worry. Just trying to defend myself.
I like Joseph over Vasquez because he’s a defensive upgrade, but the way they’re set up, he has to fill the role of both Vasquez and LouWill. I didn’t like how they deployed both of those players last year, but their scoring punch really helped their offense. Counting on CoJo alone may help the defense, but the offense is going to take a big step back.
Blake: My hope is that they can maintain a top-12 offense while getting into the top 12 on defense. It’s not the “top 10 on both ends” people normally talk about as a rough guide of contender quality, but I think being balanced, if unspectacular, is probably better than having a huge strength and a huge weakness. I’m more confident in them doing so on the defensive side, which is weird considering where they’re coming from.
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All in all, that’s a pretty reasoned take for pessimism about the Raptors. There are offensive, defensive, and depth issues, as well as concerns over the team’s best player holding up. It’s not as if other smart minds aren’t worried, too (Tom Ziller, Paul Flannery, and Zach Lowe, among others, have expressed concern regarding what the worst-case scenario for the Raptors might look like).
None of this can be taken as anything other than what it is: The East is tight, and some people are going to feel better or worse about certain teams. Smart people can disagree.
