I had the chance to speak to Jack Armstrong over the phone yesterday as he was driving back from a TSN radio show. He took the time out of his busy schedule to chat with me. A great analyst, a great man filled with humility. I’ve transcribed the conversation below for your enjoyment.
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Kiyan: Before we get into anything Raptor-related, I wanted to talk a bit about Flip Saunders. His passing was very tragic. What are your thoughts on him as a coach and an individual? What was his legacy?
Jack: It’s a very sad day in the NBA, to lose a class act – a real gentleman. In a business filled with egos, he was someone that treated people right, was always approachable, always first class. He obviously had an outstanding coaching career, and was just an institution in Minneapolis – from his playing days at University of Minnesota and then his two different stints with the Timberwolves.
It’s just very sad – a guy so young. It really hits home to a lot of people across the league. It was devastating news and I was taken back on Sunday afternoon when I heard about it. I knew he was struggling, but I didn’t realize it was to that degree. It’s just horrible.
Kiyan: What was Flip’s influence on the development of Andrew Wiggins?
Jack: Flip was a terrific offensive coach, and I think you really saw Andrew Wiggins blossom, particularly late in the season last year, in terms of his understanding of how to be an effective and impactful player in the NBA. I think you’ve seen that carry over to the summer in terms of his approach to things. I think bringing in Kevin Garnett will really help his development and his understanding of how tough you have to be on a night-to-night basis. I think Flip understood that he had a special young player there, and you have guys like Sam Mitchell and Sidney Lowe there – guys that will hold you accountable and make you play at a high level. I think it will all really benefit him a great deal.
But having a guy like Flip in your first year allows you to grow and mature as a player, and Flip really gave him an opportunity. It wasn’t one of those things where, you know, certain coaches won’t play young players. Flip – to his credit – was very patient with him, and nurtured him, and challenged him as well.
Kiyan: It’s obviously hard to compare the talent levels between Wiggins and Bennett. Wiggins is in another plane on his own, but why do you think Bennett didn’t have the same kind of flourishment in Minnesota under Flip?
Jack: Hard to say.
I think sometimes, a lot of it is fit. A lot of it is the position you play and the kind of players you have around you. Sometimes you get caught up in the numbers game, and I think that’s what it became for Bennett – it was just a numbers game.
And right now, it’s a numbers game for him in Toronto. It’s going to be hard for him to get major minutes in the season, but that might actually be a blessing in disguise because it will keep expectations low, it will keep expectations realistic – which they should be – and allow him under the radar to develop as a pro and develop into the player I think he can be.
Kiyan: What were the differences between this year’s training camp and last year’s? Was there a different focus?
Jack: Well I think last year’s team hit the ground runnin’. I mean, they finished the season so strong and lost game 7 to the Nets. They were an incredibly efficient offensive team. And then you add a guy like Lou Williams to the mix to go along with what you had, I think they were so far advanced offensively, it was pretty remarkable to watch.
This year, you’re adding a lot of new faces, you’re kind of changing the look and feel of your team altogether. You have a lot more time spent on defense and working on crisper ball movement, less iso-ball, and a little more flow to what you’re doing. I think those would be the things that jump out.
Kiyan: You mentioned Lou, and all of success last season offensively. Do you think with losing him and Greivis the team can stay elite on the offensive end?
Jack: I think they’re going to have some challenges sometime offensively.
A lot depends on how good Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson are coming off the bench. Are they going to be consistent guys? I think Corey Joseph’s a guy that’s more than capable of slicin’ and dicin’ and getting into the heart of the defense, and getting other guys shots – but will those guys make shots? And, do they have enough creativity in their 2nd unit?
I mean, I think their starting unit will be fine offensively. But, my concern is this: When you look at the better teams in the NBA, they do both. Not only are they good defensively, but they can score.
I think for the Raptors early on, it’s going to take some time to find that level where there’s a good balance where they’re not only a good team defensively, but they’re going to be a solid team offensively. And when you look at the schedule – 11 of the first 15 on the road – it could be a rough start. And if people have unrealistic expectations about this team, they’re going to be disappointed. I think it could be a rocky start to the season, and personally, I look at that first 15-game stretch. If they finish that stretch a game or two under .500, I think that’s all you could ask for at this stage. I think it’s going to be a difficult stretch, and I hope I’m wrong. But I think it could be a tough go early on until they formulate that chemistry. The teams that usually play well early in the season are the teams that are really good offensively – and that’s what the Raptors were a year ago. And on top of that, they were playing a ton of home games. Whereas this year, they’re not going to be as good offensively, and they’re playing a ton of road games.
So as long as people are realistic and aren’t calling for the coach’s head and aren’t calling for massive change and all that, they’ll find their level eventually.
Kiyan: One of the key differences this season is Carroll coming in and Ross going to the bench. Ross has a bit of a reputation for his lack of confidence. Are there any differences this year with his body language? Do you think he’s ready to take the bench role and run away with it, or does he still lack the confidence?
Jack: No, I mean, I like his body language. I like his approach. The question is, is he going to produce? Only time will tell.
I think he’s better suited where he is right now. There’s no question that, with all due respect to Terrence, he’s not a starting small forward in the NBA. DeMarre Carroll is. Terrence Ross isn’t. That doesn’t mean Terrence Ross isn’t a good player, I just think he was playing out of position. To his credit, he did as good a job as he can possibly do. But for him right now, if he can make the adjustment coming off the bench, ready to roll when he gets in, play at a high level, and be impactful in terms of shot-making, being able to create his own shot, getting to the basket, and being a sound defender – that I think will really help him.
But that’s going to be a critical thing for their bench. They’ve got to have some juice, they’ve got to have some firepower. A year ago, that was Lou Williams, that was Greivis Vasquez. Now you’re asking Terrence Ross, who’s never been the most consistent player on earth, to be a guy – on a more consistent basis – in a new role who can do that for you. Only time will tell whether he can do it or not, but if he does do it, they’ve got a chance to be a really good team.
Kiyan: How much pressure is Dwane Casey under, this season in particular? He had a chance this off-season to go after players he really liked in his system. Players like Carroll, Joseph, and Biyombo. Those are players that really fit into his defensive philosophy. So now that he has the tools, how much added pressure does he have this year to show results as oppose to previous years?
Jack: I think there’s pressure, no doubt. I think he’d be the first to admit it, but he’s not going to worry about it.
To me, I think the schedule is working against him. Meaning – again 11 of the first 15 on the road – if there are people that exist that want to have a coaching change, then the schedule early on creates that discussion.
In my opinion that shouldn’t be a discussion.
I think the definition of what you want to see is, can this team grow and mature over the course of an entire season, into a team that, come playoff time, can win a playoff round or two.
I personally think they’re not going to win as many games as they won the last two years. I think (after) winning 48 and then 49 games the last two years – both franchise records that happened to be coached by Dwane Casey – there might be less wins this year. But they key is, will this team be ready to roll come April 15th when the playoff rosters are put together – are they going to be ready to roll?
I personally think if people are patient, and allow this team to totally come together, that they could be a better-equipped team to win in the playoffs because the style of play is different, and the players they’re going to have will by then formulate a better team defensively.
But they’re going to have nights offensively where they’re going to labour to score early on because they’ve made a shift. And in order for you to develop as a team, it takes time. And again, I think the schedule is going to be problematic early on.
Kiyan: Where do you think the Raptors lay in the East? Some people – maybe unsurprisingly – don’t give them much respect and have them ranked in the lower half of the playoff seed. Where do you see them?
Jack: Well I’ll give you an example. I saw Sports Illustrated one day and they picked the Raptors 2nd. I almost fell off my chair. And I’m not knockin’ the Raptors. I’m just looking at the Chicago Bulls, the Atlanta Hawks, the Washington Wizards – who the Raptors got swept by in the playoffs – and I’m sayin’, how can you not pick those teams ahead of Toronto, at the very least right now?
And I think wins are going to be harder to come by in their own division. I think Boston’s going to be better and I think the Knicks are going to be better. I think the Nets will probably be what they were a year ago, and Philadelphia will still be weak.
They might win their division, but it won’t be as easy.
Games in their own conference aren’t going to be as easy. Milwaukee’s going to be better. I think Indiana – even though they lost West and Hibbert – they’re going to be a different type of team. Orlando, with a new coach in Scott Skiles and all that young talent – like those wins are going to be harder to get.
Is the East a better conference than the West? Absolutely not. But is the East better than it was last year? In my opinion, I think yes, and I think that means the win total might come down a little bit. But, when I look at 8 playoff teams in the East, do I think Toronto is one of them? Yes, absolutely.
Kiyan: How much of a game-changer do you think Kyle Lowry’s new physique is? If he can sustain an all-star level throughout the whole year – and not just half the season – with Cory Joseph being capable of giving him more rest this season, how much does that improve the Raptors?
Can Lowry maintain that level for a whole year this time?
Jack: I hope so. I think he’s more than capable of doing it. And I full expect him, if he’s healthy, to be in the all-star game this year again in Toronto. I think he’s that good. And I know he’ll be that determined to get there because this is a legacy thing now. Not a lot of guys get to play in more than one all-star game, and to play back-to-back, y’know, he’s going to have a whole country behind him.
He’s the heart and soul of the team. He’s the straw that stirs the drink. With all due respect to DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry is the guy that, when he’s right, he’s engaged, he’s prepared to play, and he’s ready to lead in a positive way – there’s no stopping him. I think he’s that good. And he’s got another notch on the belt that he’s capable of getting to, that, quite frankly, he didn’t get to at the end of last year.
And I’m sure he’s ticked off about that – rightfully so. I hope that he can get there.
Kiyan: When you’re looking at this roster, 1-12, what is the glaring weakness with this team, and what concerns you the most?
Jack: I’d probably say, are they going to be good enough at the four spot? I think a year ago, the question was, are they good enough at the three and four spots. And I think they’ve addressed the three spot with a starting three man in DeMarre Carroll who was with a 60-win Eastern Conference finalist in Atlanta. So, I think they’ve improved there.
The four spot, are they better with Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson vs Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson? Only time will tell.
But no team in the league is perfect. And I guess the other thing would be, do they have a backup three man? You probably have to look at your James Johnson or Anthony Bennett. Or do they decide they just want to go with a 9-man rotation and play a little smaller at times with Lowry and Joseph together. Or play Terrence Ross again at the three? But again, no team in the league is perfect. Every team has things that aren’t exactly the way you want them to be.
And I think I mentioned this before. I think earlier in the season they might labour to score a little bit until they truly get an understanding of each other’s games.
Again, I just think you’re losing a lot of guys that were good offensive players. Y’know, Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez, Amir Johnson – those are all three guys that are very good players. Amir Johnson is a very efficient player, and I just think it’s tough to replace that overnight, and it takes time.
Kiyan: Are you surprised at all that Patrick Patterson hasn’t runaway with the starting four spot? What does he need to do differently? Because he looks like he’s really struggling offensively.
Jack: Yeah, I’m surprised. Yeah.
I thought he would play a lot better in pre-season. He’s a student of the game, a hard-worker. He’s a tough guy, he defends for you. I personally think as time goes on, he’ll settle in whatever role they’re going to have for him and he’ll be fine.
I mean, he’s too good a player to play the way he did in pre-season for the course of a whole season. Now, is he a guy that is a legitimate starting four man in the NBA for an Eastern Conference finalist? I don’t know about that. But do I think he’s a guy who will play really good minutes for you on a consistent basis? Yes, definitely.
Kiyan: On the flip-side, has Luis Scola surprised you with how well he’s played? I would say I was surprised, given that I expected him to have more of a veteran / mentorship role with limited minutes, but he’s actually blown me away and looks like he’ll serve the Raptors in a bigger role. He looks great.
Jack: I think he fits. He’s a good player, a Steady Eddie. I always joke about the fact that he out-slows people. Y’know what I mean? Like, he’s got three or four gears of slow. I think people will go 90 miles / hour, they’re leaving their feet, coming down, and he hasn’t even made his move yet. He’s just very crafty and a good team player.
If you look at their starting line-up, he’ll probably be the best option with them.
There will be a few nights during the season where, particularly playing a lot of games and he’s an older player, he’ll look old. But when he’s rested and sharp, I think he’ll be more than capable of playing at a high level. And I think at this stage of his career, he’s relishing the opportunity to have a bigger role than maybe he’s had the last few years.
Kiyan: I wanted to get your personal opinion on James Johnson. Everything that Dwane Casey says indicates James won’t play much this season. Do you see eye-to-eye with Dwane Casey here?
Jack: I see eye-to-eye with Dwane Casey because there’s a trust factor there. When you look at a guy like James Johnson, I think there are times you’ll have slippage. You’ll play at a very high level for one game – maybe even two games. And then you get to the third game or fourth game, and you’ll say ‘who is this guy? He’s not the same guy I saw last game or two games ago’.
I think that’s the frustration that all his pro coaches have had with him. You reach a point where you have to be consistent, you have to be steady.
On the other hand, I’m sure he looks and says ‘well, Terrence Ross isn’t steady either’. But, he’s got to prove that he’s going to be a reliable, fundamentally sound defender that’s going to stay within the scheme and execute the scheme properly, and offensively, play good high percentage basketball. I think if he does that, then he has an opportunity to play more. But coaches are going to want guys they know will be at the right place at the right time and trust that they’re going to make the right decisions.
I can think of a game this preseason, I think it was in Ottawa against Minnesota, where James Johnson throws a ball to a teammate for a three-point shot, and he throws it out of bounds. And you’re like ‘what are you doing?’. Y’now, make the simple play. And I think the frustration is that he tries to make the homerun play. He tries to hit a grand slam when nobody’s on base. Keep it simple.
Keep it simple.
Keep. It. Simple.
If I’m him, I’m doing everything possible to dumb my game down, and just do two or three things max, really well, just so I can get on the court every night. And then if I get on the court every night, I’m not ever trying to do anything more than those three things. I think sometimes when he plays for a while or gets comfortable, he tries to do to much.
Kiyan: You know that every-time I speak to you I have to ask you about Jonas’ development as a player. He’s going into his fourth year now. First of all, what do you think of his new contract, and secondly, how is he progressing in the NBA?
Jack: Well, first of all, what I think of the contract – it’s the same as every other guy in the NBA. We have a new ‘normal’ now. There’s a new nine-year 24 billion US deal coming into play next year, and it’s going to change how things are done. Is the number high? Yeah, it’s high. But it’s normal for what the market is going to bear the next 12-24 months, so, good for him.
He’s in year four, it’s time. I think you expect he’s going to be somebody that’s more consistent. A lot of it is going to come down to how they use him and how involved he gets in the offense, and whether he can be a guy who can be a more consistent and alert defender.
He had a good summer playing for Lithuania, he’s been solid in camp, and solid in preseason. Is he going to be one of their top two players? No. But can he be a legitimate starting five in the NBA who can play some fourth quarter minutes for you if the matchups are right? Yes, definitely.
