The Raptors look to leave the sunshine state with a smile on their face after losing their first game of the season in Orlando on Friday. The Raptors take on a 3-3 Heat squad this evening in Miami. There are a couple of key story lines to keep an eye on:
- It’s been a cold shooting road trip for the Raptors, especially in the first quarter. Toronto shot 17 percent in the opening stanza of Friday’s game and Lowry, Carroll and Scola were an abysmal 12-40 for the game. Miami is one of the better defensive teams in the league, particularly in terms of blocking shots (5th overall) and defending the three (opponents are shooting 28.6% FG). They struggle to score the ball, however. So, if Toronto can put some points on the board, it will be difficult for Miami to match blows.
- Chris Bosh faces his former team. Bosh didn’t face the Raps last season due to blood clots in his lungs. Thankfully, he is healthy and playing basketball again. Bosh’s scoring and shooting percentages are down so far this season but you know there’s always a little something extra in the reserve when you’re up against your ex.
- Miami is talented, but inconsistent. Every win has been followed by a loss. Conversely, every loss has been followed by a win. They’re coming off a game that they felt like they should have won in Indiana and they’ll be looking to bounce back at home.
The Starters:
PG: Lowry vs. Dragic
Like the Miami team in general, Dragic has been inconsistent this season. Nevertheless, he is one of the fastest guards in the league and he’s capable of catching fire on any given night. Still this one clearly goes to Lowry.
SG: DeRozan vs. Wade
Dwyane Wade is Miami’s leading scorer but he’s got about 300,000 miles on his treads. While he’s still performing amazingly well considering the amount of abuse his body has taken over the years, he’s no longer the star that he once was. DeRozan is one of the best in the league at getting to the line. If he can get Wade in foul trouble, there isn’t much in the way of reinforcements behind him. Edge: Toronto
SF: Carroll (questionable) vs. Deng
This matchup hinges entirely on whether Carroll, who is dealing with planter fasciitis, can play. Deng is another guy whose body has been beaten to a pulp, thanks to years in the Thibodeau system. Rookie Justise Winslow has emerged as the guy who is on the court to close out games. He is very talented young player who is capable of playing really good defense and doing a lot of small things to help his team offensively. Given the state of Carroll and the possibility of Ross starting, this edge goes to Miami.
PF: Scola vs. Bosh
I talked about Bosh above so I won’t get into it too much here. He’s not performing as well offensively this season as he did last year but he’s going to want to play well against his former team. Scola is coming off of a rough outing and he’s undoubtedly going to want to redeem himself. This one has a pretty clear favorite, however. Edge: Miami
C: Valanciunas vs. Whiteside
Sweet baby Jesus I’m looking forward to seeing these two going head to head. Whiteside is like a box of chocolates (you never know what you’re going to get), but when he’s engaged he’s an absolute force. Because Whiteside has a tendency to daze off into la-la land if he’s not involved early, it’s crucial for Jonas to be locked-in on defense to start the game. Whiteside surely hasn’t forgotten the fact that the Raptors cut him from their summer league team in favor of Bebe Nogueira (oops), so the Raptors could be dealing with a very salty giant. Although the potential for Whiteside to unleash a monster performance is higher, Valanciunas is the more consistent player. (Slight) Edge: Toronto
Bench:
Toronto needs more from its second unit. Ross and Patterson have been dropping goose eggs, and frankly that’s unacceptable. Cory Joseph is coming off of a career game so his confidence should be high going into this one. If Carroll doesn’t play then Ross will likely shift into the starting lineup, which means we will see more of Powell or James Johnson. Both players are ferocious competitors and it will be fun to see them out there competing. The Miami bench hinges on two very talented players in Justise Winslow and Josh McRoberts. Both players do all of the little things that help teams win basketball games. Other than those two guys, their bench is fairly pedestrian. Given the injury to Carroll and the general offensive ineptitude of the Raptors’ second unit, sans Joseph, I’m giving the edge to Miami.
Prediction:
I’ll make the unpopular prediction here and pick Miami 98-95. Toronto is dealing with injuries and slumping offensively. Miami is going to be amped up after losing a winnable game in Indy. If Lowry is hot and Jonas wins the big man matchup, I’ll happily eat crow on my prediction.
