It’s been two weeks since Jonas broke his hand against the Lakers. In his absence the Raptors have gone a respectable 5-3. In a league where traditional big men are seemingly becoming obsolete, it’s worth taking a deeper look into how the Raptors are performing without Valanciunas.
Let’s start with the basics:
| Wins | Losses | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | Pts Allowed | +/- | |
| w/ Jonas | 8 | 6 | 101.6 | 45.0 | 18.6 | 3.9 | 97.6 | 4.0 |
| w/o Jonas | 5 | 3 | 99.0 | 42.8 | 17.1 | 4.0 | 96.5 | 3.4 |
While the team’s winning percentage and defense are slightly better without Jonas, the Raptor’s offense, rebounding, passing and overall plus/minus have dipped in his absence. Of course, this also depends on a number of other factors independent of Jonas including quality of opponent, fatigue, other injuries, etc…
To try to give a sense of quality of opponent, ten of the fourteen teams the team faced with Jonas this season currently have a record of .500 or better, while only four of the eight opponents in his absence have a winning record.
What about the starting five, you ask?
| Min/gm | +/- | |
| With Jonas and DeMarre | 15.7 | – 0.6 |
| With Jonas and Johnson | 13.0 | + 0.7 |
| Without Jonas, with DeMarre and Bismack | 10.5 | – 1.6 |
Per nba.com/stats these are also the three highest minute-grossing units in the rotation. As you see the most effective starting unit consists of: Lowry, DeRozan, James Johnson, Scola and Jonas. The least effective, and consequently the lineup which Casey sticks with the least is Lowry, DeMar, DeMarre, Scola and Bismack. In both cases the starters fare better with Jonas than with the defensive-minded Biyombo.
Finally, let’s take a look at the team’s offensive and defensive ratings when Jonas is on the floor and when he isn’t.
| Off. Rating | Def. Rating | |
| Valanciunas | 109.2 | 99.8 |
| Team before injury | 103.7 | 100.2 |
| Team after injury | 104.7 | 101.3 |
This stat, which measures the amount of points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions, really shines favorably on Valanciunas. The team’s offense and defense have simply been markedly better while he’s on the floor.
In a lot of ways it seems like this team is better suited for a defensive-minded, mobile big man than someone like Jonas. Valanciunas is not going to win any defensive player of the year awards and it’s always felt a bit forced working Jonas into the offense with the ball-dominant Lowry and DeRozan at the helm. While the league itself seems to be transitioning away from traditional bigs (sorry Roy Hibbert), the Raptors, with their current personnel, are clearly a better team when Jonas is on the floor. It’s tempting to think of a scenario wherein the Raptors move Jonas to an asset-laden squad in need of a big man like Boston and remake themselves into a sleek, small-ball squad in the mold of the Warriors. The Raptors, however, should not fall into that line of thinking. While team is not exactly struggling in his absence, they most certainly will benefit greatly from his return.
All stats in this article courtesy of nba.com/stats
