It’s been a weird six-game home stand for the Toronto Raptors so far.
They struggled and coughed up a sure-win to the Denver Nuggets, went toe-to-toe with the world’s first ever unstoppable basketball team in the Golden State Warriors (and damned if Tuesday’s handling of a very good Indiana Pacers team didn’t make the loss a bit easier to stomach), and then let the Los Angeles Lakers hang around far too long on Kobe Bryant appreciation night. Amid all of that, the Raptors lost DeMarre Carroll indefinitely to a knee contusion, an injury that looms large despite a breakout game from T.J. Ross on Monday.
So, Drake Night is behind them, Nelson Mandela night is behind them, Kobe Night is behind them, and the Warriors juggernaut is behind them. Things should get normal from here, right?
Well, sure, if an 18-4 team that nobody seems to be talking about – exactly the way they like it – can be considered normal. The San Antonio Spurs are in town Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. tip-off on TSN, and while it might not be quite as tough as the Warriors game, it’s going to be really tough sledding.
If the Warriors are C-4, blowing teams into oblivion in one fell, dramatic, chaotic swoop, the Spurs are air-borne bacteria, their effectiveness creeping up slowly until suddenly you can’t breathe and don’t have time to figure out what’s going on. Again, this is an 18-4 team, the second-best in the league, and nobody is talking about them. Because they’re the Spurs, and in the words of former Spur Cory Joseph, they’re “boring.” It’s reasonable that a historic defense – the Spurs are allowing 92 points per-100 possessions, less generous than a pre-Christmas Scrooge – is less electrifying than a historic offense. But the gap between the Spurs and the third-best point differential in the league is larger than the gap between the Warriors and the Spurs – in other words, the Spurs are closer to the Warriors than any other team is to the Spurs.
So, yeah, this weird home-stand isn’t getting any easier, at least not yet.
Key Matchups
Joseph vs. Matt Bonner: Battle of the revenge games. Joseph is yet to play against his former team, while Bonner has averaged 4.7 points and 2.4 rebounds while hitting 44.7 percent of his threes in 15 games against the Raptors. Surely, he’ll be glad to be back riding the TTC and eating delicious *brand redacted unless we get some sponsorship* sandwiches.
Joseph vs. Tony Parker: Student against teacher. Joseph very clearly picked up some of Parker’s tricks while in San Antonio, particularly Parker’s penchant for changing speeds and direction on funky forays to the rim. Joseph is thriving in his new environment, but while the 33-year-old Parker wasn’t quite his peak self early, he’s still averaging 13.1 points and five assists while shooting 57.1 percent from the floor.
Boban Marjanovic vs. Bebe Nogueira: Ridiculous giant humans. The 7-foot-3, 290-pound Marjanovic is something straight out of a James Bond movie and, health and game flow permitting, watching him opposite the 7-foot, 220-pound, high-haired Nogueira will be worth a photog’s weight in film.
Kawhi Leonard vs. T.J. Ross: One of the league’s perennial Most Improved Player candidates as he’s slowly ascended to superstardom against the 2016 winner of the award.
Injuries
Toronto: Jonas Valanciunas (finger) out, DeMarre Carroll (knee) out, Lucas Nogueira (ankle) questionable
San Antonio: Kawhi Leonard (illness, realness) questionable
A bit about the Spurs
What the Spurs would look like this season was a bit of a question mark. They re-signed Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green while still managing to find the room to bring in LaMarcus Aldridge and extend Leonard without having to deal Patty Mills or Boris Diaw. Their depth looked a little shaky, but they got David West on the cheap and have managed to get by fine with an unspectacular-on-paper-but-effective-enough bottom-five in the rotation.
What they’ve looked like is incredible. Aldridge is expectedly taking on a reduced role, with the Spurs once again tasking nobody but Leonard with more than 30 minutes a night. Aldridge is still getting his touches, largely in the mid-range where he likes them, and potential concerns about spacing or having two traditional bigs too often appear unfounded, with the Spurs ranking third in offensive efficiency. The Aldridge-Duncan duo has outscored opponents by 11.8 points per-100 possessions, and while their starting lineup has been less murderous (plus-4.9 points per-100 possessions), a heavily used lineup with Ginobili in place of Green has turned opponents to dust (plus-37.2 in 42 minutes).
The Spurs run a great deal of offense through the elbows, blessed with smart passing and capable shooting big men, flanked by excellent cutters. They move the ball beautifully, something everyone is aware of but seem to forget day-to-day. They push the pace immediately off of a rebound or turnover, only to slow things back down in the half court (they basically work to get into their sets quickly, allowing them to run longer sets with more options).
Defensively, they lock teams down with a top-flight perimeter defender in Leonard, quality rim protection from Duncan, and the league’s best defensive rebounding outfit. They also foul less than any other team in the league, bad news for the Raptors’ offense, and despite the conservative approach still manage to force an average turnover rate and hold opponents to an obscene 45.2 effective field-goal percentage.
They rested Leonard and Duncan on Monday and still beat the 76ers by 51, without playing anyone more than 30 minutes. They’re clinical. They’re insane. They’re hyper-efficient. And they’re beautiful. There’s no boring here at all.
Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. Parker, Mills, McCallum
Given the play of Lowry, Joseph’s likely hunger, and Parker’s defensive shortcomings, the Raptors probably get a slight edge here. Parker is someone who can be attacked on defense, though the presence of Bismack Biyombo at center is such that Duncan will be able to hang out near the rim helping, where he remains phenomenal because he’s immune to aging. Parker’s going to make either (both) Raptors point guards work on the other end, though, and he’s a remarkably difficult check. Mills can get hot in a hurry off the bench.
SG: Ross, Powell vs. Green, Ginobili, Butler
The idea of Ross sticking with Green outside and being tasked with chasing Ginobili around a never-ending array of screens is terrifying. T.J. will need to be knocking down shots to have much value here, as his spacey defense and inability to put the ball on the floor are things the Spurs are sure to target. Powell might see spot duty to help with Ginobili, but the most likely case is that the Raptors run two point guards often and ask Joseph, one of the best at fighting through screens, to do it. Green’s been unseasonably cold from long range on the year but can be expected to heat up anytime now.
SF: DeRozan, Johnson, Caboclo vs. Leonard, Anderson, Simmons
Leonard is tailor-made to stop a guy like DeRozan, using his strength, quickness, and intelligence to seal off drives to the rim without fouling. This is the Raptors’ go-to scorer up against perhaps (likely) the best perimeter defender in the league, and while it stands as a fun test and measuring stick for DeRozan, it also completely negates an advantage the Raptors have on most nights at his position. Leonard’s also taken on a much larger role offensively and had success doing so, and with no Carroll to check him, DeRozan could be in for a long night.
I love Anderson, but somebody needs to teach him about not snitching.
They’re talking abt a stolen wreath on the news here in Canada. Someone is stealing wreaths, and to call crime stoppers if you see smthg lol
— SLOWMO (@KyleAnderson5) December 8, 2015
PF: Scola, Patterson, Bennett vs. Aldridge, West, Diaw
This might be the game that finally sends Scola to the bench, as it seems unlikely he’d play well (even if at the same time he seems like he’d thrive in San Antonio). He’s been bad for a while now, and while Patterson remains cold from outside, he’s a more versatile defender and a better fit alongside Biyombo. Not that it would matter much Wednesday, as neither is well-equipped to handle Aldridge. Scola will put a body on him at the elbows and try to crowd his passing lanes, and Patterson will make him step outside at the other end, but this is decidedly a Spurs edge. Having West and Diaw available off the bench is unfair, as West remains an effective 17-foot assassin and Diaw can play Draymond-light passing with a numbers advantage after being slipped the ball in the pick-and-roll (man, do I love me some Boris Diaw).
C: Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Duncan, Bonner, Marjanovic
Sure, Biyombo can bang with the Spurs’ bigs in the post and try to get those rare offensive rebounds, but his lack of offensive utility is going to be a huge factor here. Lowry is the team’s lone edge looking around the court, and the Spurs are probably going to hedge aggressively on him and make Biyombo do damage. He can’t, Lakers game aside, so here’s hoping Nogueira can go. It’s a tough matchup for him but could stand as a great learning experience, and he surprised against the Warriors.
The Line
The Raptors are 5.5-point underdogs on their own turf with a 188 over-under. The line opened at Raptors +4.5 last night but bumped quickly, and I think that’s probably the right move – Toronto is thinned out and, save for the Golden State game and Kyle Lowry’s regular brilliance, haven’t been playing all that well. I’ll take a slight over, though.
Spurs 98, Raptors 91
