If back in October, someone from the future would have told us that the Raptors, a third of the way into the season, rank an abysmal 29th in bench scoring, and have been playing large chunks through important games without two starters: Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll, you’re going to come to some quick conclusions. It would be bewildering to assume with the aforementioned facts in mind that the Raptors would be anywhere other than hovering around .500.
You’re wrong, Kiyan of October. You’re so wrong.
The Raptors are 16-10, and are one of only four teams to rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are having an MVP-type season from Kyle Lowry who is, right now, playing enough out of his mind to be the best point guard in the East and top-10 player in the league. They are receiving all-staresque contributions from DeMar DeRozan, and as a team, are playing beautifully orchestrated defense that makes you weep.
But there are deep burnout issues at stake. We all witnessed the tragic disintegration of Kyle Lowry after the all-star break in ’14-15. DeRozan’s long injury took a toll on Lowry, who had an overwhelming burden placed on him at both ends of the floor. DeRozan may not be a superstar, but his contributions are sorely missed when he’s not on the court.
A disastrous injury to DeMar has not happened this season (knock on wood), but there are other factors to consider when discussing another potential collapse or overexertion of key players. How sustainable is this winning record if the bench continues it’s impotence in scoring the basketball? It’s not that the Raptors are just not good at scoring off the bench, it’s that they’re abysmal at it. And it’s so bad, that Dwane Casey has had trouble trusting them, playing the 2nd unit together just 16.7 mpg (third lowest in the entire Association), leading to more minutes to starters who haven’t had the chance to breathe much.
In reality Cory Joseph’s infinite superiority to Greivis Vasquez would have led some to believe Lowry’s burden would be lessened. That sentence may have sounded harsh towards the likable Venezuelan, but, while he has higher scoring outputs, he can’t hold a candle to CoJo’s defense, shot selection, and overall basketball IQ. While Joseph has been great though, it hasn’t given Lowry much breathing room. The reality is that the combination of a Lowry-Joseph back-court has been really conducive to the Raptors winning games, and out of every 2-man line-up, it has the highest net rating. The efficiency of the Lowry-Joseph combo leads to a high usage rate (14.8 mpg together), and Lowry gets extra burn because it works so well.
Furthermore, Dwane Casey can almost never field an all-bench line-up (until maybe Jonas and DeMarre return and send Biyombo and Ross to the 2nd unit). Cory Joseph is currently the only player who has contributed consistently off the bench all season, so when he has off-nights, the Raptors’ bench becomes a near zero. But Joseph is not a volume scorer by any means, which means even if he’s having a good night offensively, he’s still only scoring 9.5 points per game. It’s not a bad number, but it’s not what the Raptors were accustomed to with Lou Williams last season.
Patrick Patterson is having his worst season as an NBA player, hitting lows in ppg (5.7), 3p% (33.7), and FG% (37.7). He is grabbing just half a rebound more than his rookie season. Terrence Ross? more of the same. Ross is hitting career lows in ppg (6.2), 3p% (31.8), and FG% (36.8%). Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson were more efficient in their rookie season. This is hugely problematic for a team with an already-weakened bench that wants to make a deep run into the post-season.
This piece is a ramble – make no mistake. There is no foreseeable solution other than hoping Ross and Patterson will wake up one day fully rejuvenated, confident, and eager to restore their pride. In reality, everything ends up relying on these two, because I don’t see Masai making any panic trades or shedding assets to acquire veteran scoring for the time being. I could be wrong, but Ujiri has proven he’s beyond making moves like that.
The measuring stick will be when Valanciunas and Carroll come back, and the Raptors will have a healthy roster for a significant duration in which Dwane Casey can have a full array of options at his disposal.
