Last season ended in disappointment…bitter disappointment
So did the year before. In fact, much of team history for the Raptors has ended like this way, one way or another. What’s different now is that the franchise entered this season with renewed hope that things might be different this time around…which seems redundant to say.
Letting Lou Williams and Amir Johnson walk, but keeping the remaining core of the team intact, the Raptors also added high end players like DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph in the hopes of making an extended run in the playoffs. The goal isn’t just to make the playoffs again, but to find success come playoff time.
With this in mind, it’s hard to get amped up for all 82 regular season games. As much as each win is needed (particularly with the newly strong Eastern Conference), it doesn’t help us weight whether this season has been a success or not. Success isn’t going to be weighed in regular season wins, but rather in playoff series victories.
This leaves us looking for any measuring stick that we can use towards our ultimate goal at the end of the year.
And yes, I acknowledge that playoffs are far from a certainly based on how a single loss at the moment can drop a team down the standings, but I also can’t help but still believe that Toronto is the second best team in the East at the moment.
I’m not trying to assume anything when it comes to the playoffs…but I keep thinking about whether the style of play in Toronto is sustainable in the playoffs. After all, many people had doubts entering the playoffs last season. What they were doing just didn’t seem like it could succeed in the playoffs, and it’s safe to say those concerns were validated in a pathetic performance against Washington.
This year feels different though, with the Raptors as one of just four teams that are currently ranked top 10 in both offensive (104.3 point per 100 possession, sixth best in the league) and defensive efficiency (101 points . The other three? Golden State, San Antonio, and Cleveland. That’s rather good company to be in at the moment and provides hope for sustained success come playoff time.
But I still can’t shake the feeling of worry when it comes to the offense. I’m not too worried about the defense as this seems to be a matter of effort, but the offense dropped off a cliff when the playoffs started last season.
Right…Off…A…Cliff.
The biggest reason for my concern is the team’s dependency on free throws. It’s not just getting to the line a lot though, but the hunting of free throw opportunities as a form of offense that worries me. Currently only Minnesota provides a higher percentage of their points (per 100 possessions) from free throws than Toronto.
There isn’t a significant pattern when looking at this chart though. Some of the worst teams are at the top (I see you, Timberwolves and Lakers), but some are near the bottom (how’s it going down there, Brooklyn and Phoenix?). The same can be said about teams with the best records, as they are generally spread out across this chart.
Generally speaking though, I want to be wherever Golden State and San Antonio are, and we couldn’t be much further from them here.
How did this look last season though? Let’s take a look at the regular season stats for last year’s playoff teams:
Once again, Toronto provided one of the highest percentages of points from free throws (per 100 possessions) out of playoff teams last season, which proved to be entirely unsustainable for them when it came to the playoffs.
Toronto contributed -2.7 percent less points from the free throw line, while also scoring -12.7 points per 100 possessions less when compared to the regular season. Free throws were far from Toronto’s biggest problem during last year’s playoffs when they were scoring 12.7 points per 100 possessions less than they did in the regular season, but they were an issue. Toronto got to the line 2.7 times less per 100 possessions in the playoffs, while scoring 5 points per 100 possessions less.
What I found interesting was that while almost every team scored less efficiently in the playoffs (save Washington and San Antonio), the majority contributed a higher percentage of their points from the free throw line come playoff time, while also attempting more free throws per 100 possessions…pretty much the exact opposite of what I was expecting when I started to look at these numbers.
Most teams got to the line more consistently, and scored a higher percentage of their points from the free throw line, while scoring less efficiently overall.
This provides a weird picture that I’m not entirely sure how to interpret, and gives me a little less pause when it comes to Toronto’s ability to get to the free throw line at a high rate.
Last season’s numbers seem to indicate that free throws can play a bigger role in playoff success than in the regular season. The Golden State Warriors scored 3.3 points per 100 possessions less in the playoffs than in the regular season, but contributed 16 points (per 100 possessions) from the free throw line in both cases (albeit on 2 additional attempts per 100 possessions in the playoffs).
Either way, what does bode well for the Raptors is the overall strength in free throw percentages, as the Raptors are a top three team at the moment, connecting on 79.4 percent as a group.
I still don’t love the dependency the Raptors often have on free throws for success though, but last year saw an increase on percentage of points scored from the free throw line in the playoffs when compared to the regular season.
So…keep hunting that line??
