What a quiet Sunday. There really isn’t much to report on that wasn’t taken care of in today’s game preview, but I’m a creature of habit, so here we are. As a refresher, the Toronto Raptors host the Los Angeles Clippers at 6 p.m. on TSN 1 & 4.
The Clippers come in having won 11 of 13 despite the absence of Blake Griffin, while the Raptors are on a seven-game winning streak without DeMarre Carroll. If the Raptors can continue the momentum and take care of business at home Sunday, they’ll be on the second-longest winning streak in franchise history. At the same time, the Clippers, even without Griffin, mark the toughest challenge the Raptors have had in weeks, so that’s hardly a foregone conclusion. Keep in mind, too, that even if the Raptors get up big, they nearly coughed up a 29-point halftime lead against the Clippers in L.A. back in November. Nothing given, nothing easy.
Clippers Updates
As mentioned, Griffin remains out with a quad injury, even though Sunday was initially believed to be a potential return date (a very optimistic one, but still). With nobody else hurt and C.J. Wilcox back from the D-League (Branden Dawson is still there), the rotation will look something like this.
PG: Paul, Rivers, Prigioni
SG: Redick, Crawford, Wilcox
SF: Mbah a Moute, Johnson, Stephenson
PF: Pierce, Ayres
C: Jordan, Aldrich
That starting unit with Paul Pierce at the four has had some success, outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per-100 possessions in 148 minutes together. Getting stretchier with a pair of forwards instead of two traditional bigs has been the key to the Clippers’ offense with Griffin out. In the 13 games he’s missed, DeAndre Jordan is yet to play alongside what would be considered a normal big man.
Hack-a-Jordan
One way teams have opted to try to slow the Clippers down is to engage in hack-a-Jordan, intentionally fouling him to send him to the line. Jordan is shooting 41.7 percent on free throws this season, exactly his career mark, and he’s getting to the line 7.7 times per game. At that clip, an intentional foul of Jordan produces an expected points per-possession of 0.834 (the Clippers score 1.064 points per-possession overall).
That’s a great mark for a defense, but it comes with some externalities:
- It can push the Clippers into the bonus more quickly, leading to easier points for other Clippers. The Clippers spend more time in the bonus than any other team (29.4 percent of their minutes), unfamiliar for the Raptors, who only play 21.3 percent of their defensive minutes in the penalty, per data from Nylon Calculus.
- It lets the Clippers’ defense get set. The Raptors post an effective field-goal percentage of 49.9 overall, 48.9 after dead balls, and 48.4 percent after opponent makes. The Clippers, meanwhile, allow a 49.5-percent mark overall but 47.6 percent on dead-ball scenarios and 48.1 percent after makes, again per Nylon Calculus. Those are small impacts and we don’t have O-Rating/D-Rating information specifically for free throws, I don’t think, but they back up the conventional wisdom that it’s tougher to score after opponent free throws
- It can get players in foul trouble. With only 11 healthy bodies on hand, that could be an issue if the Raptors go that route.
If the Raptors are going to engage in hacking, there are a few things to keep in mind:
- Don’t do it with Chris Paul on the bench. Some teams have done this, but it makes little sense. The Clippers with Paul and Jordan but no Griffin score 120.2 PPC, per NBAWowy, but that drops to 106.6 PPC when Paul sits. If you’re going to send him to the line, do it when the Clippers have the highest expected point production, making the impact greater.
- If you have to do it, the ideal time is when Jordan’s the screener and it looks as if the defense might be in a mismatch. Essentially, read the play, concede you’re beat, and give up the lowest expected point total.
I hate the strategy in general and I’m not sure head coach Dwane Casey will employ it much – Jordan took only four free throws against the Raptors last time out
Raptors Updates
Nothing doing on the Raptors side. Carroll`s out and three are in the D-League. The rotation will look like this:
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright
SG: DeRozan, Ross
SF: Johnson
PF: Scola, Patterson, Bennett
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
The Raptors`starting five is now their second-most used lineup on the season, and that group has outscored opponents by 3.1 PPC in 154 minutes together.
The Line
I guessed the Raptors would be 1.5-point favorites. They opened there but the line`s moved to Raptors -2.5 with a 205.5 over-under. I`ll definitely take the under and, hey, why not be optimistic. Raptors 101, Clippers 97.
