Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Game Day: Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns – Feb 2nd

Two years ago both teams over performed, flash forward to present day and one franchise is on the precipice of meeting expectations while the other is rebuilding once again.

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Great Expectations:

With the win streak over the natural instinct may be for the Toronto Raptors to relax and take their foot off the gas.

Post game comments from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan indicated they have no intention on doing that. Rather, they stated a need to put this loss behind them and get right back in the win column via increased defense. Duane Casey was a little less subtle in his message holding nothing back about his displeasure over the Raptors lack of effort and performance.

And while the Raptors now travel to Phoenix to face a squad who’ve historically played them well, these two teams are literally sitting at opposite ends of the NBA power rank ladder.

To wit: week 15 began with news the Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek had been fired while Duane Casey was awarded January’s Eastern Conference Coach of the Month. Even more reflective is the January performances of these 2 teams:

  • the Raptors notched 12 wins versus 2 losses
  • whereas the Suns posted just 2 wins with 12 losses.

In fact, if you look back even further in time you can see how these two franchises interpreted their efforts over the past few seasons and chose very different paths. In some ways the Suns over performing in 2013-14 may have led to the teams current demise. Ownership felt they were ready to compete for a championship missing only a single part. That was an aggressive viewpoint to take given they made this decision without even getting into the post season.

The following year the Suns literally imploded when they flirted with disaster adding a third guard to the backcourt. In the end they lost both Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas in their mishandling of the situation and with them the premise of why the team had improved. The Suns management has been the major issue via how they’ve handled player interactions which has taken a once cohesive locker room and turned it into a cancerous situation.

Conversely the Raptors who also over achieved in 2013-14 ended up losing on the final play of that intense Game 7. Toronto could easily have fallen down the same rabbit hole as the Suns did, especially after last season when a poor second half and sweep in the playoffs could have been over looked and written off as injury related.

Instead management took stock of what was working, what needed to change and set to shoring up their defense adding two-way players with grit. All while working in concert with keeping the core in tact and continuing to develop those strong relationships. Though we tend to focus on players, coaches and GM’s perhaps this Suns examples points to the strength of the Raptors top management and again reflects the need for a champion to be built with equal strength across the board.

With that let’s take a look at the particulars:

 

Walking wounded:

 

Suns:

 

Raptors:

As per rotoworld and CBS Sports

Projected rotation:

 

Suns:

Point Guard: (Brandon Knight), Archie Goodwin
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker Sonny Weems,   Jordan McRae
Small Forward:  P.J. Tucker,   (T.J. Warren),
Power Forward:  Mirza Teletovic, Markieff Morris,
Center: Tyson Chandler,  Alex Len

Notes: if the Raptors are thin on the wings it’s an understatement to say the Suns are depleted at the point especially if Knight can’t go again.

Seeing Sonny back in the NBA brings back fond memories of the Young Gunz. Remember this dunk off aired on Amir TV? They all looked so young with Weems playing the role of BFF to DeMar.

With players going at each other right on the hardwood or in social media etc, this quality can’t be under stated. DeRozan’s ability to develop close knit relationships produces an intangible that can’t be taught – – trust.

Raptors:

Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
Small Forward: (James Johnson), Terrence Ross (likely to play at both SG and SF)
Power Forward: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
Center: (Jonas Valanciunas), Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira

Notes: The injury to Johnson will likely keep him out of the line-up meaning the Raptors are extremely thin at small forward. Factor in  Bruno Caboclo the third tier SF didn’t join the team on this trip.  Look for Casey to give Powell extra playing time with potential for spot minutes from Anthony Bennett. The other option would be to shift all the core guards up one position use Delon Wright for a few minutes to spell Joseph or Lowry and have DeRozan play some extra minutes at the SF.

 

Game Notes:

  • Late yesterday Earl Watson was named interim head coach of the Suns.
  • Tonight’s game mirrors the first meeting between the squads given the Raptors were on the second night of a back to back set while the Suns were on a days rest.
  • The Suns have won 4 of the past 5 games between the two teams.
  • Suns have lost 16 games (won 2) since Bledsoe’s season ending knee injury
  • Raptors rank in the top 8 of all three major categories: offense (6), defense (8) and net (6)
  • Suns rank in bottom 4 of all three  major categories: offense (27), defense (29) and net (27)
  • Suns are 2-19 in their past 21 games
  • The Raptors are 4-5 on second night of back to backs
  • The Suns are 7-2 facing teams on second nights of back to backs

 

Raps at Suns

Three Keys to the win:

 

Start a new win streak: all good things must come to an end and while it would have been nice for the Raptors to own the best win streak by a Toronto sport franchise they’ll have to settle for a tie (Blue Jays). There is no time to reflect on the record setting streak, rather they need to buckle down and notch the first victory of the next streak.

Focus on defense: playing on the second night of a back to back and short handed the Raptors need to power through their fatigue. Focusing their effort primarily on defense will allow them to get into a rhythm and stick around should they struggle again offensively. Theoretically the Suns won’t offer the same effort (as the Nuggets) on defense where they rank 29th, but see point 3. Specifically the Raps need to shut down passing lanes, play solid transition defense to stop fast breaks and crash the boards especially on the defensive end.

Play the opponent, not the record: while the Suns appear lottery bound and are injury depleted the Raptors need to be careful not to fall into the trap of playing the record. When a coach is fired it’s not unusual for the team to respond with an energized effort (except in Tyronn Lue’s case). The Raptors need to be extremely careful players like Markieff Morris don’t chose tonight to make a statement his issues were tied to Hornacek. Like last night’s opponent the Suns beat the Raptors earlier this season (107-102) so the Raptors must approach this game looking to apply the lessons they learned from that loss and even the series.

The line:

The odds makers have the Raptors favored by 9 points with an over-under of 200.5 and heavy early action leaning toward Toronto.

Getting back in the win column immediately is important, but Casey needs to be careful not to over utilize his All-Star backcourt to compensate for the shortage on the wings.

Assuming Johnson remains out for the remainder of the road trip these next 4 games arguably offer ideal opponents to test the rookies’ progress. Ujiri drafted Wright and Powell citing their advanced defense, so providing short relief for the core players with the emphasis to defend should be within their capacity. Furthermore, given the next 4 opponents are the Suns, Blazers, Pistons and T-Wolves who all utilize their own glut of rookies – – doesn’t it seem like the perfect time for that litmus test?

Prediction: Suns come out with a view to impress Watson (not to mention nothing to lose), but the Raptors showcase why they have been the most consistent Eastern Conference team winning by 5

 

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