3 In The Kiy: Q & A With Jack Armstrong

Kiyan chats with Raptors analyst Jack Armstrong

*Note, this conversation took place on April 8th – before we had a grasp of the playoff picture.

Kiyan: When we last spoke in the Fall, you had a killer quote which is funny in hindsight. You said:

I saw Sports Illustrated one day and they picked the Raptors 2nd. I almost fell off my chair. And I’m not knockin’ the Raptors. I’m just looking at the Chicago Bulls, the Atlanta Hawks, the Washington Wizards – who the Raptors got swept by in the playoffs – and I’m sayin’, how can you not pick those teams ahead of Toronto, at the very least right now?

Hearing that, are you surprised at how the whole season panned out?

Jack: Yeah, you know obviously number one, I was wrong with that prediction, so I have no problem saying that. Number two, I think if the Chicago Bulls roster is completely healthy, they would have had a different season. And you look at how The Raptors performed head-to-head against the Bulls, it’s pretty evident that the talent level in Chicago is very good, and quite frankly, they’ve underachieved. Then on top of that I think if you look at Washington, they’ve had injuries and you just shake your head there – they’re not going to make the playoffs which is shocking with the team they have.

You look at a team like Atlanta and they’ve kind of taken a half-step back. They’re still a very good team, but, I think the league is starting to get a little bit more comfortable figuring out how they play. And so that being said, I look at this Raptor team and the season that they’ve had, and I’m really impressed. You have to consider that DeMarre Carroll has missed more than half the season, and even Jonas Valančiūnas missed a bunch of games – and yet here they are second in the East and they’re the fifth best team in the NBA.

I’m just really impressed with how far they’ve come from what took place last Spring, and it’s been a wonderful season. It’s really been eye-opening for me to see the progress that they’ve made defensively this season, and to see the progress they’ve made internally. At times you look out there and you go, “Wow, how are they doing this offensively? This is a good team.” I think it’s 26 or 27 wins against .500+ teams and, you know, they’ve really taken another step. So, I thought going into this season they would be a team that would be in the mid-40s, and yet be better by this time of year, mid-April, and to contend and win a round in the playoffs. I thought that it would be a process, and instead they’ve had a terrific regular season. They’re ahead of schedule compared to where I thought they were going to be, and I’m happy to say that I was wrong, because it’s been the most successful Raptors season in history. So it’s a pleasant surprise to say the least

Kiyan: The situation with The Bulls is really interesting because you’ve mentioned the success they’ve had against the raptors, and with a healthy roster they would be really hard to beat. But that success they’ve had against The Raptors is somewhat unique in the sense that they haven’t been able to replicate that against the rest of the league. Do you think there is relief in the camp now that the Bulls are outside the playoff picture? And that whole ‘psychological barrier’ that exists against The Bulls – was that real?

Jack: Well, I know there’s relief on my part. I know Dwayne Casey and the players are never going to express that relief, but deep down they know how difficult that matchup has been the last few years.

And it’s real. You know, they owned The Raptors in the last few years, so for them to one: Not make the playoffs, which is highly likely now; and two: that their chance of getting the 7th seed doesn’t really exist, in my world it’s a relief. I evaluate the Eastern Conference from a talent perspective, and you know, if the Bulls are healthy I think they have the third best team talent-wise in the East. I think the Miami Heat have the second best, and the Cavs have obviously the best.

I’m hoping that Miami isn’t in the same bracket as the Raptors. I’m hoping that if the Heat can stay in the four-five range and The Raptors can avoid them, that would be a huge step in the right direction in terms of looking at the big playoff picture rather than just the first round. I think playing The Heat in the second round would be a tough, tough matchup. Tougher, with all due respect, than Atlanta, Boston, or Charlotte.

If you gave me any of those four and said okay, pick one you don’t want to play – I don’t want to play Miami. I just don’t think you’re going to get a good whistle and I think they have championship pedigree, and they have really good talent. And again, that’s not a knock on Charlotte, Boston or Atlanta. I just think the Raptors match-up better with those teams than they do Miami. So I guess the ideal playoff world for Toronto would be Chicago not to make the playoffs. That looks like it’s going to happen, and now in the final six days of the season, can Miami be kept out of the three-six area and stay in the area that they’re in right now and be in the four-five range?

Kiyan: Right, so if the playoffs started today – and you and Maddy D kind of touched on this on TSN last night – The Raptors would play The Pacers, and in the second round, should they advance, would probably play The Hawks.

If we’re looking at the first-round matchup against Indiana, what way do you think it favours the Raptors?

Jack: It’s a really tough matchup because they make you play ugly, and they are a really good defensive team. You know, it’ll be a very physical series and potentially very ugly series. Beyond Paul George, it’s just an Indiana team that doesn’t really have a lot of names that blow you away in terms of saying “That guy’s a household name.” But they’ve got a lot of good players and a really good coach. It’ll be a tough matchup and they have some guys on that team that have had success in the playoffs.

I think it’ll be a very difficult series which will probably go six or seven games. Toronto’s going to have to play at a really high level to win. So it will not be an easy series.

Kiyan: When we first spoke at the beginning of the season we talked about the concerns the Raptors have at the four-sport. Since then, Scola surprised a lot of us and Patrick Patterson had a slow start, but he’s kind of developed into a really good 6th-man off the bench. But are there any adjustments to be made heading into the playoffs? The team gets into a bit of a deficit early on when Scola’s on the floor still. Is it too soon to say Carroll might be a solution at the four heading into the playoffs?

Jack: Well, you know, it all depends on how much he can play. I look at him more in the playoffs as a secondary guy rather than a primary guy. I think that’s gotta be the expectation because, you know, it’s a lot to ask for a guy to come back and play major minutes after missing half the season. I just think that’s hard to expect. On the other hand, I think when you look at how he played last night against Atlanta it’s just a little glimpse at how he was used. He was not only used as a three, he was used as a four. And there’s no doubt, touching on your question, that I could definitely see that happening in the playoffs depending on who they play and how it matches up and how the proposing team does things when a team goes relatively small.

Can he play the four? And who’s your five? Are you playing Biyombo or Valanciunas with him? If the other team goes super small, you could play Patterson with him – only time will tell. But there’s no doubt when they signed him, that their mindset was primarily that he’s going to be your small-forward. But on occasion, in special situations, he has the versatility to play at the four as well if the opposing team tries to play small. So yeah, I think he gives you another option to be able to do that.

I also think a guy like Jason Thompson is mobile and athletic enough to be able to thrown in there for a few minutes. He’s done a good job. So I just think that a guy like Scola will probably be on a relatively short leash, and I said that last night during the Atlanta game – if he plays well early, you know, his minutes will be extended. If he doesn’t play well early, he’ll start, his name will be announced, he’ll play a few minutes and if it’s not going well I could see his role being pretty limited. So, a lot of it depends on what he’s got that night. But I think Scola’s had a really nice year for them and his ability to stretch the floor, his smarts and toughness – he’s a good, clean player. He gets it. He’s a good, mature, experienced veteran voice who is very well respected throughout. He’s been a really nice pickup and he’s been a good guy to have. You know, he’s kind of a voice of reason. He’s a guy that Kyle Lowry respects, which is important. They played together in Houston, and I think that just having another guy like that really settles things down a little bit. If they play the pacers in the first round, you know, he did play for them. I don’t think any of that hurts – I think it only helps.

Kiyan: Another interesting thing to consider is, if the matchup allows Carroll to play minutes at the four – who are your options at the three? Basically you have two options, James Johnson – who is someone that Dwayne Casey is not known to trust that often – and then you have Norman Powell who has been really promising but at the same time, is he a bit too raw for the post-season?

Jack: Well, there’s another name there too. There’s Terrence Ross.

I personally think if you look at the way things are going right now, Norman Powell has taken control of that situation more than James Johnson. James deserves credit – he did a solid job this year for a long stretch of time yet there are times he’s just too inconsistent, and the playoffs are about trust. The playoffs are about consistency. You gotta make sure that the guys you put out there, you know what you’re going to get from them every night.

Even though Powell’s a rookie, I think so far he’s already shown he’s very prepared, very mature, and you kinda know what you’re going to get from him. And I think a guy like Terrence Ross – from a long-term organizational investment – gives you a scoring punch, and he’s a pretty good defender too.  I think you’re going to need some help from him too. I think it’s probably going to be more Powell and Ross in those other minutes than James Johnson. But again, it all comes down to just who they match up with and what the other team does.

And Indiana can kind of show you both looks, you know? Detroit can show you both looks. It depends on who wants to dictate the look. Do The Raptors want to dictate the look? Or are they just going to react to the look when the look is shown? So, I don’t think Dwayne Casey is going to consciously go into the game and say “I’m putting Carroll at the four and you gotta match us.” I think it’ll be more reaction to what the other guy does.

Kiyan: Quick digression here – Sam Hinkie stepped down yesterday. and there are rumors of Bryan Colangelo coming in. I know that you weren’t a huge fan of what was going on in Philadelphia, the way that team was kind of being built, stockpiling draft picks and whatnot. Any insight on that? Do you think that this is a good direction for The 76ers now?

Jack: Well.

Analytics and things like that are a secondary component to sports. Sports is still the human element, and sports is still flesh and blood, emotion and leadership, group dynamics and chemistry – and it will always be that. And the analytical stuff is supportive of that. It’s not the steak, it’s not the potato, it’s the salt and pepper or the sauce you pour for extra flavor. It’s the butter, sour cream, or chives you put on your baked potato – but it’s not the potato.

And I think guys like Morey and Hinkle think that their worldview is the steak and the potato and, in my opinion, that worldview is wrong. And, you know, your coach matters, your people matter, your personal skills matter, your leadership matters, your ability to communicate on a daily basis in the building matter. Your vision is important, and I’ve talked to people in Philadelphia and, you know, you just can’t have a guy who kind of goes into his office and doesn’t communicate with anybody, and people walk around completely confused about what’s going on. There comes a point where losing begets bad habits and you could be stockpiling all these great players and if the attitude and the culture of the organization is such, then it’s hard to overcome the groundwork.

You gotta look and say, you kinda need a balance. And I think the intent there was to keep him on board in a supportive, analytical role, and to have more of a basketball mindset in place that combines with that. He has made the decision that he doesn’t want to be part of that because he’s not going to be a primary guy anymore, but in my opinion, he shouldn’t have been the primary guy. Now, people will say “Well, in the long run the feud will work itself out.” And I respect the fact that he was willing to acquire all these assets but you still gotta make the right call on the assets. You still gotta have a feel for how you value your coaching staff, how you value player development, how you value players and their talent level – all those things.

If you look at the partnership between Jerry and Bryan, obviously it’s a father-and-son thing and I understand that. But if you look at the partnership that existed between those two in Phoenix, they did a really good job there. And if you look at Bryan’s track record as a draft guy and a guy who does trades, he did a really good job in Phoenix and Toronto. Sometimes it worked out, sometimes it didn’t. But if you look at some of the core pieces of Toronto right now with DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Dwayne Casey – even Patrick Patterson who was brought in by the acquisition of Rudy Gay who was an asset that they turned into – I mean his fingerprints are all over that. And I’m sure at some point in Philadelphia that people will say the same thing, that Hinkie’s fingerprints are going to be all over the things that are going to happen in Philly as now they have some assets to work with. And you know, I think that Bryan and Jerry Colangelo will be the first ones to admit that, you know that they’re going to have some assets to work with that were the result of someone being willing to take a hit. So I think that Bryan will do a good job in Philadelphia because he’s in a position where there’s some assets to work with and he has proven himself to be a pretty good judge of talent.

Yes, he did mess up on the Bargnani situation, but I think if you look at the totality of his record as an executive in both Phoenix and Toronto with the partnership he had with Jerry in Phoenix, I think there’s a comfort level, so I think it makes sense, to me, that this has happened.

Kiyan: Does that point to the importance of continuity a bit? Because you mentioned all those players – Valanciunas, Derozan, Lowry, Ross – they were all part of a core group of players that at some point or another, a large majority of people thought it would be best to get rid of them or say, you know, this team would be better off without them and that the team should move on. But obviously the patience has paid off with those guys. I guess I’m trying to talk about the importance of continuity, and the value in being patient with players.

Jack: Well yeah, and I didn’t even mention Amir Johnson who Bryan brought in and who was a big part of The Raptors success.

So yeah, I think Masai’s greatest gift is his patience, and I think if you’re a Philadelphia 76ers fan, you hope that a guy like Bryan Colangelo, in his third stop as a GM, will have a little bit more patience and be a little less impulsive and ultra-competitive. I think he has great instincts and feel for things, but at times wants to make a move immediately to be in the game, in the mix, in the deal. And I think at times, you’re better off letting things breathe a little bit. I think you’ll see that a little more from Philadelphia. But I think that Masai’s greatest gift is the fact that he lets it breathe and is patient, and he allows it to kinda unfold.

So rather than making an evaluation at 30 days, he’s the kind that will wait for 60. You wanna wait for 60, he’ll wait for 90. And I think it’s more of a reasoned, educated guess – a decision you can make when you give yourself a little more time and I think that definitely helps a lot.

Kiyan: A few weeks ago you wrote a blog post talking about the whole idea surrounding resting players the way Pop did with The Spurs in big games, and, if I understand it correctly, you’re not a big fan of it. But what is the difference between what Pop does, and what Dwane Casey does giving Lowy and DeRozan rests here and there, and just thinking about long-term?

Is it more important scheduling in rest heading into the playoffs, or is it more important to keep the league and fans happy – maybe risk an injury to one of your players?

Jack: Well, I mean, the last time I checked, people buy season tickets for 41 home games. Fans are our partners. Beyond that, your corporate partners are there. They’re buying signage and they’re investing in the team as partners all 41 nights or all 82 nights. The league or team isn’t discounting them 60 cents on the dollar on nights that we don’t put our best players on the floor. We’re expecting them to pay full price. We’re expecting our fans to pay full price. So if a guy’s healthy and able to play, why is he not playing?

You know, we’re traveling by charter airplane and staying at five-star hotels. All these teams are in beautiful ultra-modern practice facilities with every amenity imaginable. They have the finest medical care, the finest in everything. And now we’re going to say, oh we’re creating a country club mentality – we’re going to make it even easier. You’re going to give guys days off, but there are days off other than game nights that are practice days. You know, don’t ask them to practice. Game night is a sacred thing and fans make great sacrifices to get to games. You could tell a hundred different stories of fans traveling from far places through bad weather or whatever the case may be to see games.

And I understand if a guy is hurt, if he’s injured, then sure, he shouldn’t play. But what I’m saying is this – if you want to cut a guy’s minutes down, you know, fine. What’s wrong with playing the guy for 12, 15, 18 minutes rather than totally shutting the guy down for the night. You know like, is that going to kill him? It used to be a badge of honor to play in these games – that’s what you’re paid for. If you ask a lot of these guys, okay well you can take five nights off but we’re only gonna pay you for 77 – we ain’t going to pay you for 82. If that happens, I guarantee guys are going to say screw that I’m playing.

That doesn’t happen in real life and, well, people can say sports isn’t real life and I agree with that. I understand that, but there’s also a responsibility that you have to your fans and that is important, and I just think that it has set a very bad precedent, and I think I look back to the guys who played 20, 30, 40 years ago. They didn’t have charter airplanes, they were flying commercial on back-to-back. They were staying in lesser hotels and under lesser work conditions and all those types of things, and they suited up and played, and played long careers. I don’t understand why we’re lowering the standard and lowering the bar so much. I think it’s a bad precedent. Yeah, I understand that Tim Duncan is older. I get that with a few older players here and there but I think now that it’s becoming a league-wide expectation, I’m not sure it’s a good thing. I don’t pay to go to the games, I’m lucky enough to be paid to be at the games and I have a lot of friends that pay to go to games. By the way, I am a paid season ticket holder. I go to Buffalo Bills games and I go to Buffalo Sabres games and I’d be damned if I’m going to give them my hard-earned money and some guy who is clearly healthy enough to play is sitting out on some quote-on-quote maintenance day. I’m gonna be, you know, I’m gonna be ticked off. So you know, it’s just my opinion.

Kiyan: And I definitely see that. Michael Jordan not too long ago basically echoed what you’re saying – how it would be an absolute privilege for him to play 82 games in the season because he just loves the game so much. And correct me if I’m wrong, even at the age of 40 when he was with The Wizards, he played the majority of the games that season. I’m not sure if they rested him at all, and…….

Jack: And it’s not that hard!!!! I mean how hard is it?

And again, it’s hard but there are a lot of off-days and the travel and all of the accommodations that are being made today that are so much better than they were 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago. And I mean, how much more can you ask?

All of the things that you could possibly do, I mean – why are we flying guys charter, why do we have guys stay in five-star hotels? Because we’re trying to make sure that guys are able to play as much as possible. So we’ve put all these things in place and now we’re turning around and saying, “Well, we’ve done all these things, why are we spending all this money?” If I’m an owner and I’ve got 100 million dollars with 90 million dollars invested in a payroll, I’m going to expect those guys to be ready to go every night. I mean that should be my expectation, if not, then why am I putting all this money into this stuff?

Kiyan: Right.

Jack: .. Because I want to treat them nice? I’m treating them nice already twice a month when they get their paycheck. You know, so, there comes a point where the relationship with our fans, the relationships with our corporate sponsors, our television sponsors or whatever – I think that relationship is important. I think that’s sacred, and game night is sacred.

Kiyan: So, what are the solutions to this problem – because to me it’s going to be very hard for the NBA to implement something and say “Your players have to play,” because your coach can come up with any number of reasons to bench a guy. But what about having a less condensed season? Do you think there’s an idea there where, either you have a shortened season, or eliminate back-to-backs?

Jack: There’s been a lot of those things discussed. I mean, I don’t think that they’re going to change from 82 games because everything’s set on that number. And well, everyone complains you know. “Oh the season is too long.” Yeah okay, let’s cut it back to 62. Okay we’re going to take ten pay cheques from you.

And then “Woahhhh, wait a minute I’ll play.”

I don’t think any of that is going to happen. I mean, I think the league is doing the best that they can, cutting back on back-to-back’s and cutting back on four games in five nights and all those things. I think they’re doing the best that they can. I’m sure they’re going to continue to tweak it, try to maybe start camp a few days early or cut back on a few preseason games, which I think makes a lot of sense. So I think all of those things are good things, but the idea of cutting the season – I don’t see that happening because, as much as the agents don’t want their players to burn out, if you’re cutting eight games out of the season, the player is getting eight less game cheques, and the agent is getting less of that, because he’s getting four percent of that cut. He’s going to say, “Wait a minute, hold on a minute.” So there’s a lot of people making a lot of money and I just don’t see that part of it changing.

Kiyan: Zach Lowe had mentioned something interesting on his podcast. He thinks that Patrick Patterson should be in serious consideration for Sixth Man of the Year. And I never really thought about that until it was mentioned, but Patterson’s had a really good year off-the-bench. I don’t know if he’s going to be strongly considered at all, but what are your thoughts on Patterson getting recognized in that role?

Jack: I’m kind of like you – I never thought of it.

Wow.

And I hadn’t heard Zach’s interview. I kind of like that. Now, is he going to win it? Probably not, but he’s done a really nice job coming off the bench on the fifth-best team in the NBA, and the second-best team in the East. So you always want to look around and say, “Okay which guys define winning here?” So to me, yeah, that makes some sense. Yeah Patterson’s done a great job, he’s a steady-Eddy. He comes in, you can trust him, he works hard, he’s a good defender, he can make the three – he’s just a tough competitor. He’s in the right place at the right time, he gives an honest day’s work and he’s really played a valuable role for them.

He is a guy who will play more minutes and finish games. But some guys are just more comfortable watching the game for a few minutes and then coming into the game, you know, from a comfort level perspective. They give you a little positive jolt, and Patterson’s done that.

Kiyan: The other guy who’s been really solid off-the-bench has been Biyombo. It kind of makes Masai’s job more difficult, don’t you think? How do you figure out what to do with him? Because if we’re crunching numbers, it’s not going to be that easy to resign him unless Biyombo accepts a pay cut of sorts.

Jack: Yeah, that’s a problem for another day, quite frankly.

A lot of those decisions will be made based on what The Raptors do in post-season and how each guy performs, and the value they bring. So I think it’s hard to answer that question without really seeing how they will play in the post-season.

Things get harder and harder each game. To see which guys truly have ‘it‘, and which guys you know have enough – but maybe not as much as you need.

I’m sure they have their thoughts on how they value Biyombo, and I think Biyombo’s done a great job for them. You know – rebounding, shot-blocking, energy, he’s done a beautiful job. I’m sure they already have a fixed value that they’ll look at him with. But I think a lot more of that value will be truly tightened up and figured out when they finally have an opportunity to breathe and the season is done. So, honestly, I don’t really worry about things like that right now. I mean, that’s stuff that’ll play itself out way, way, way deeper into the Spring and early Summer. I don’t worry about any of that right now. I don’t think they do either. I think they already know what he’s worth, what his value is – but I think they’re more curious now with their own team to see which guys emerge as point-by-point performers. And that truly gives them a better idea of the value you attach to that guy.

Kiyan: Jack, one last question before we let you go. What is the biggest surprise of the NBA season? If someone asked you before the season started or told you what would happen, what would be the hardest thing to believe? Like, it could be anything from what happened to Houston / Chicago – or whatever. What is the biggest surprise so far?

Jack: A few things.

Number one: The collapse of The Rockets and The Bulls. I think that unfortunately, they don’t value coaching as much as they should. Kevin Mchale did an underrated job in Houston, and I don’t think they really appreciate how good of a communicator he was. And there’s a lot of high maintenance personalities on that team. This isn’t always X’s and O’s and analytics. A lot of times it’s just about human relationships and interaction, and Kevin Mchale is one of the best at that. And I think the people in Chicago miscalculated how good a coach Tom Thibodeau was and how much of an impactful guy he was, and what a great job he did.

And number two, how important leadership is. I think if you look at where the Washington Wizards are right now, and you look at where they were, I think there’s a single element that always comes into play.

Paul Pierce – look at the job he did with the Brookyln Nets in his short time there. Look at the job he did overall with The Celtics. Look at the job he even did with the The Clippers, particularly when they lost Blake Griffin and that ship didn’t sink. There’s nothing like having a veteran guy that really creates harmony, creates maturity, and promotes the right way of doing things and has really performed at a great level in the league. I don’t think Paul Pierce gets enough credit.

And then lastly, I think of how The Warriors were able to succeed in the kind of stretch that they’ve had, and last night they had to win their 17th consecutive game to clinch the first seed. I mean, are you kidding me? That’s how great the San Antonio Spurs are. You know, we had this long discussion about playing guys. What if they actually played their guys all the time – how many games would they win? It took the Warriors that long to clinch the top seed. You know, it’s really just hard to imagine that, and I think what The Warriors have done for the league this year, how they started the season, has been great for the NBA. It’s been such a great topic of conversation. Usually a lot of NBA fans or basketball fans really don’t start following until after Christmas, and for the NBA to be on the map in the month of November/December, we should all be thanking the Golden State Warriors for that.

So those will probably be the three big things that jump out at me that have been stories in the league that, you know, kind of shaped things a little bit. There’s probably fifteen more that I’m not touching on because I don’t have enough time, but those would be a few that jump out at me.