I feel differently about this game than I have about most games so far in the playoffs. The Toronto Raptors are set to host the Miami Heat in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference Semfinal, and with the series tied 2-2, stakes couldn’t be higher. The Raptors are missing Jonas Valanciunas, DeMare DeRozan is dealing with a sore thumb and even more painful shooting, and Kyle Lowry, while still effective, remains mostly without his jumper.
And still, I’m confident. Perhaps more confident than I’ve been about any game of the postseason so far. I was mostly calm and at peace entering Game 7 against the Indiana Pacers, but it wasn’t a calm borne of confidence as much as it was a readiness for the situation and early pre-acceptance of any outcome. This time, I’m just kind of…sure the Raptors will win.
That’s an overstatement, to be clear – second-round playoff games are never sure things, and these two teams appear to be very evenly matched. But the Raptors have gritted and grinded their way to this draw, keeping home-court advantage, and there’s a reason they played so hard to secure it all year. Neither team has played to its best quite yet, but the Raptors’ ceiling is decidedly higher, having seen the floors of each and projecting from there. They’re comfortable playing poorly and ugly. They also stand as the more likely option to turn in a less poor and less ugly game, and at some point, one of those games may happen. If it does, I like Toronto’s chances. Even if it doesn’t, they’ve shown it will be a 50-50 proposition in the closing minutes. Let’s hear it for optimism.
The game tips off at 8 p.m. from the Air Canada Centre. TNT has the game in the U.S., with Ian Eagle, Brent Barry, and Allie LaForce on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and Sportnset 590 has radio rights. Scott Foster (playoff home-team killer), Tony Brothers (supposed Heat-hater), and Sean Wright are your officials.
Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 5, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.
*Andrew’s got your preview.
*Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out for Game 5. He’s not traveling to Toronto. We covered this off here.
*DeMar DeRozan spoke about his struggles and free agency with Michael Lee of The Vertical. Again,we got you.
*I took a look at some of Casey’s decisions from Game 4. And then at some interesting play-calls from the game. Zarar looked at some other stuff here and here.
*Goran Dragic was retroactively assessed a tech. There’s some talk in that link about DeRozan’s wrist, and more here.
Eric Koreen wrote some good words about these revealing playoffs for us. Michael Grange had a nice take on the job Dwane Casey has done.
And on a semi-special note that I always forget to mention here, I’ve been doing semi-occasional TV spots for CTV during the playoffs. I helped preview tonight’s game, and you can find the video (plus my earlier spots) here.
Raptors updates
It stands to reason that the Raptors will start the same way they started Game 4. They were pretty effective like that – they outscored the Heat by 21 points in the 26 minutes that Bismack Biyombo and Patrick Patterson shared the floor. The difficulty is that a lot of those minutes came when the Heat played their three largely ineffective centers, and Heat groups without a center at all hammered the Raptors in the game’s closing 10 minutes. The Heat will probably start Amar’e Stoudemire again, so the big question for the Raptors will be what to do if and when the Heat go smaller earlier.
Based on the returns from Game 4, the answer appears to be “stay big.” The rim protection was abhorrent without Biyombo on the floor, and the Raptors’ perimeter defenders were getting beat one-on-one too much for the weakside help to capably get in position in time. What’s more, the Raptors opted not to switch actions where Patterson, the de facto center, was guarding the screener. That’s silly, considering the ability to do so is a large part of the reason the Patterson-at-center look makes sense on paper. They also didn’t really utilize Patterson much in the offense, in large part because the Heat (somewhat surprisingly) switched actions where Patterson screened, trusting Joe Johnson on ball-handlers. The Raptors need to get more aggressive with these looks.
In any case, the Raptors can (and probably should) match small for stretches, particularly earlier in the game if offense is at a premium. They’re smaller at every position like that, though, and that’s the tradeoff for that extra offense.. What they can’t do, though, is stay small just because Miami is doing it isn’t working, or if they have a lead late. Biyombo’s defense outweighs his offensive limitations in end-game scenarios with a lead, and the Raptors can safely have him play well off of Justise Winslow, if the rookie’s on the floor.
It’s hard to predict too much here. Dwane Casey has said he might stay big or even go smaller – DeMarre Carroll at the five, please – and he’s not going to tip his hand. His rotations, including where Lucas Nogueira factors in, are the most interesting thing to look out for in this one. FREE JAMES JOHNSON AMIRIGHT? (I’m probably wrong, but it might be worth a look.)
Here’s what the rotation could look like, assuming Bruno Caboclo and Jonas Valanciunas are inactive:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Patrick Patterson, (James Johnson), (Luis Scola), (Jason Thompson)
C: Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira, Jonas Valanciunas
Check back before tip off to confirm Biyombo is starting.
“We’ll see,” Casey said before the game. “He’s a possibility. We still have Jason Thompson we haven’t played yet. James Johnson can play the four…especially when they go small.”
UPDATE: Same starters.
Heat updates
Like the Raptors, the Heat will probably start as they did in Game 4. They were less successful, with Stoudemire struggling, but I’m not sure their logic behind Stoudemire starting (give the Raptors defense someone to worry at least a little bit about on offense) would have changed much. Udonis Haslem is better overall at this point but poses little threat on offense, and Josh McRoberts can get exploited in the pick-and-roll some, despite his best efforts. These are imperfect options, and I’d expect the Heat to get more aggressive going small afetr playing just 10 of 53 minutes without a center in Game 4.
Assuming Bosh and Whiteside are the lone inactives, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, (Tyler Johnson), (Briante Weber)
SG: Dwyane Wade, Gerald Green
SF: Joe Johnson, Justise Winslow
PF: Luol Deng, (Dorell Wright), Chris Bosh
C: Amar’e Stoudemire, Udonis Haslem, Josh McRoberts, Hassan Whiteside
Spoelstra said before the game that he’ll role with the same lineup. Rotations are another question.
Pre-game notes/quotes
*”I don’t know but this is not a time of year to get tired,” Casey said when asked if players are tired at this point (umm?). “You’ve gotta play through it. This is what you play for.” Asked a follow-up about how much say he has in player rest or involvement on off days, Casey said the team will adjust based on expected workload, and that he consults with Alex McKechnie frequently. He specifically mentioned having to sometimes rein in Powell’s work, because of course he did (I’ve been there multiple times when a staffer has to basically force Powell to get off the court).
*”It’s not tough. It’s part of the playoffs,” Casey said when asked about the constant back-and-forth adjustments of the series. “We’ve gotta be flexible. We talk about all scenarios in our meetings to prepare for them.”
*”Just therapy and rest. That’s it for today,” Spoelstra said of what Whiteside’s doing back in Miami, refusing to put a timeline on it. “We’re just trying to get him as much treatment as you can.”
*Spoelstra credited Toronto for limiting Miami’s threes, particularly with respect to Luol Deng’s muted offensive game. Like Toronto, Miami is looking to push the pace and move the ball a little better. Shocking. “Both teams are just open to the competition right now,” he said of the poor offense int he series. “You’re looking at what a two and three seed playing against each other in this league should be…Teams aren’t giving up anything on any possession.”
Assorted
*Here’s your swag level for this one:
A photo posted by Blake Murphy (@eblakemurphy) on
Game 5 shirt setup pic.twitter.com/Y9zYPrpj2P
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 11, 2016
*This is Dwyane Wade’s first visit back to the Air Canada Centre after shooting during the Canadian national anthem during Game 3. He’s since apologized (kind of), and said Wednesday that the potential for getting booed doesn’t worry him and won’t hurt his feelings. Doing anything too egregious in response would have three potential impacts: Making the fanbase look bad, dragging out this storyline, and giving Wade extra ammunition. “Sometimes,” he said of booing fuelling him.
Booing Wade is entirely fine, justified, and even encouraged – he’s a visiting superstar, after all. But let’s all agree to just leave it at general booing and not push the anthem angle any further. Mkay?
Note to Raps #gameops: DO NOT put DWade on the scoreboard at any time during the Game 5 anthems; DO NOT encourage buffoonery
— Doug Smith: Raptors (@SmithRaps) May 11, 2016
*Sticking with Wade and silly storylines:
.@ThePlainDealer has JOKES, @DwyaneWade pic.twitter.com/vfDOTPvvg2
— Slice Miami (@SliceMiami) May 11, 2016
*This is a good cause:
Thanks for the @SBH_Ontario shoutout today @SmithRaps. #strongBraveHuman shirts; 100% of sales to #FortMcMurray https://t.co/EVKLngYMQs
— Eric Smith (@Eric__Smith) May 11, 2016
The line
Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96, OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92, OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5 (Raptors 95, Heat 91)
Game 4: Heat -5 (Heat 94, Raptors 87)
Game 5: Raptors -4.5
Not much changing in the lines here. Essentially, oddsmakers have established a larger-than-normal home-court advantage, with the lines fluctuating based mostly on the location of the game. The 4.5-point line is the smallest since Game 1, probably speaking to how close all of these games have been and perhaps some additional buy-in to Miami in the centerless matchup. Whatever went into it, the Raptors remain the favorite, in Game 5 and in the series.
Raptors 99, Heat 90
