Morning Coffee – Thu, Jun 23

DRAFT DAY!

Draft Mailbag: Apparently everybody wants to trade the pick | Raptors Republic

There are a few things that stand out: Trades are firmly on the table, there’s a heavy international flair, and there’s a mix of swinging for the fences and taking proven college contributors. It’s also a bit of a mixed bag in terms of effectiveness, which is exactly what you’d expect given the risk associated with picking for upside and with international prospects in general – you implicitly accept a lower success rate to try to hit big

For where the Raptors are, I like how Ujiri’s profile lines up. Not only has he done well with late firsts, he clearly likes to lean international (this is a strong international crop), and I’m fine with a lower-percentage play to try to hit big given Toronto’s current position. The concern, then, is that he’s sometimes come up empty (at least with immediate returns), and we’ve never seen him pull the trigger (himself) on a pick as high as No. 9, so there’s some uncertainty here.

But again, my general draft philosophy seems to line up pretty closely with his, so perhaps I’m biased looking at the track record. If he uses both picks, this draft could go a long way in filling out the report on him as a drafter.

My 2016 NBA Draft rankings | Raptors Republic

For those curious, my process is basically as follows: I aggregate the top-100 rankings to create a base ranking (and determine an order in which I’ll try to catch up on guys – I also prioritized players the Raptors worked out, even though that’s only one part of the draft process for the team). From there, I’ll try to watch at least a couple of their games from in the season, and failing that, I’ll look for individual game highlight packages (I realize this isn’t ideal, but game torrents are often tough to come by). Next, I’ll read from the sources cited and try to go back and double-check anything that stands out as something I disagreed with or may have missed. Once I’m comfortable with a prospect, I’ll watch the DraftExpress videos (weaknesses first, always) – they’re the best resource, bar none, but I try to save it for last so I don’t simply trust their opinion as gospel.

Then I look at the updated, aggregated top 100, and adjust for my own personal taste. That personal taste generally skews toward “best player available,” specifically upside. My guiding philosophy for where the Raptors are is basically that the team is too good to reasonably expect someone to come in and contribute from Day One (the public generally overvalues the impact of rookies), and because there’s not a clear path to pushing the team to the next level right now, swinging for ceiling is the best approach for appreciably changing the team’s longer-term outlook. They’re not going to have a top-10 pick again anytime soon (we hope), and even though the free agent market may not have a lot of low-cost help-now options, I’d rather roll the dice on a player being a meaningful piece down the line than trying to slot someone in just to fill a role for 2016-17. That only comes into play sometimes, mind you, particularly at No. 9.

NBA Draft 2016 Poll: What should the Raptors do with their picks? | Raptors HQ

It’s Ross who represents that movable contract. With the cap going up, having a 25 year old wing player — even one as spacey as Ross at times — who can defend passably well and shoot 3s on a (newly) reasonable $11 million deal is a good thing. Everyone else on the Raptors roster is either a cornerstone (Lowry, DeRozan, Valanciunas, Carroll) or not particularly tradeable (Patterson). The Raptors will also have to decide on how much they want to count on Norman Powell (in place of Ross) or Nogueira (in place of free agent power forward/centre X) before they pull the trigger on any trade.

There’s also something to be said for what kind of value Delon Wright brings to the table. Is he a guy you could bundle with the ninth pick, plus Ross and whatever other cap ballast you’d need to make a trade work? Moving on Wright (or Cory Joseph) seems unlikely at this point, but you may suddenly find yourself with too many quality point guards. Is there even a reasonable trade package to be put together?

Finally, there’s always the draft-and-stash route, which has become increasingly popular (/likely) for the 27th pick. If they Raptors do use the ninth pick on a player they feel can contribute soon, that’ll put the team back in a similar situation as they were last season. They’ll have 4-5 guys (depending on what you think of Powell) in that “development” role for the year. That’s a lot of guys. Having a sixth (the 27th pick) feels extremely unlikely. In fact, Masai even said he’s not sure his coaches would like having that many young players. It’s tough to be competitive while also trying to grow a roster. (It’s how you end up starting Luis Scola in the Eastern Conference Finals games, to be honest.)

Which big man will be the right man for Raptors? | Toronto Sun

The Raptors own the No. 9 pick because Ujiri deftly moved Andrea Bargnani in his first move as general manager for a package that included draft selections, including this one. It’s a nice chip to have, one that conference finalists rarely have in their pocket.

It will be the highest Ujiri has ever drafted while in charge (he was assistant general manager when DeMar DeRozan was picked ninth in 2009).

He has had more hits than misses in past drafts, with the top choices being Kenneth Faried (22 in 2011), Evan Fournier (20 in 2012), Norman Powell (46 in 2015), Joffrey Lauvergne (55 in 2013) and Wright (20 in 2015).

Toronto also owns its own first-rounder, No. 27 overall.

Ujiri and his staff love this time of year and have extensive scouting backgrounds.

They will be working the phones hard.

Raptors’ best move is to trade No. 9 pick in NBA draft: Smith | Toronto Star

No matter how it transpires, the best thing for the franchise right now is to turn an unexpected asset — obtained only because Ujiri was able to bamboozle the Knicks into taking Andrea Bargnani — into a tangible player who can help right now.

He said Tuesday that he knew he could turn the ninth pick into something in a trade, he confirmed that it has value among his fellow executives so he has no reason not to make something happen.

Look at the group of rather underwhelming projects that present themselves at No. 9. All are okay, none knock anyone’s socks off and on this Raptors roster, it’s hard to see any of them having an impact quickly enough.

Going on the perception that free agent DeMar DeRozan comes back, at worst on a short-term deal that makes him free again a year from now, Ujiri owes it to the players and coaches to continue the growth pattern and to not be concerned about three or four years from now.

Expect the unexpected from Raptors on draft night | TSN

Owners of two first-round selections – the ninth and 27th picks – Toronto have options and, at least publicly, Ujiri says he’s open to them all. One thing seems to be for certain: with of a third of their roster already very young, the Raptors have no intention of adding two rookies for next season. They’re among several teams situated in the lottery that are reportedly shopping their pick and Ujiri insists there’s interest in it.

“It’s something I’m entertaining,” he admitted. “We’re talking to a few teams and we’ll see how that part plays out. But right now it’s [about having] all the options on your board.”

What else do we know about Ujiri? He’s patient, he’s reactive, and he’ll let the market dictate his next move. He won’t force something that’s not there, evident at last season’s trade deadline, and the one before that. Meaning, his challenge is to be ready for a number of different scenarios.

Toronto Raptors: 2016 NBA Draft Needs | The Runner Sports

Domantas Sabonis seems to be the favorite for the Raptors in a lot of mock drafts right now and I don’t disagree.  I was a fan of his father, Arvydas, back in the day and a lot of people called him a 7-foot Larry Bird before injuries slowed him down by the time he was allowed to join the NBA.  He also passes well and is tough on the boards.  Some scouts worry that he doesn’t stretch the floor enough for a modern-day Power Forward which could be a problem depending on the lineup he’s in there with.

The Raptors Future May Start Tomorrow | TRAP’D Since 95

BUT, things get more complex as you consider the players the Raptors may be able to retain, acquire and move via free agency and trade.

Consider the Raptors most glaring needs. They need to re-sign DeMar DeRozan (or otherwise replace him with an equal or greater talent in the swing position for a good price; good luck), re-sign or replace Bismack Biyombo, upgrade the starting PF role, find a serviceable SF to come off the bench, all while addressing the need for rebounding, defence and additional 3-point shooting.

Without going too deep into trade scenarios, if the franchise feels they can keep Biyombo around, I can see project center Nogueira being packaged possibly with other players/draft picks in a trade to address Toronto’s power forward needs. On the other hand, if Biyombo is considered gone, the Raptors may effectively promote Nogueira fulltime to the big squad, hold on to the 9th pick to develop that player, and still be active on the free agent and trade market with the 27th pick as a bargain chip.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BG-dO9jS1Ye/

Raptors Player Review: The Rise of Jonas Valanciunas | Raptors HQ

Jonas is clearly in line for an expanded role next year. Dwane Casey and Masai Ujiri have said as much publicly, and his play down the stretch and into the playoffs certainly warranted it. What that role entails will be interesting. Casey has said it will be on the coaching staff to figure out how to keep him on the floor against smaller lineups, and to ensure that he’s given every chance to succeed. He also continues to say that he feels Jonas could stretch his game out to the three point line over the next couple seasons, which, sure! Sounds great!

On JV’s part, he needs to continue shooting that 15-18 footer with confidence and developing his ability to pass– both out of the high post, and if a team sends help when he posts up down low. On a team that figures to lack Bismack Biyombo, it’s likely that Valanciunas will see a significant spike in minutes — his career high was 28.2 in his second season, and he’s held steady around 26 the past two years. Are we talking 30 minutes per game? More? Or are we just talking a higher usage rate when he’s actually in the game? It’ll be an ongoing process, and I look forward to the irrational overreactions of the Twitter-verse the first time he plays 24 minutes against a tough match-up.

5 Worst Draft Picks in Toronto Raptors History | Tip of the Tower

Thank you, Rod Babcock.

The Great Canadian Ratings Report: At long last, NBA makes a splash in Canada | Eh Game

An average of 1.2 million Canadians watched Game 7 of the Cleveland-Golden State series on TSN Sunday, capping off the most-watched NBA final in Canadian history. In all, 4.3 million people watched at least some of the game.

Admittedly, a 1.2 million average may not seem to be that big a deal compared with the Stanley Cup playoffs or a Toronto Blue Jays playoff run or a CFL playoff game. It also didn’t match the 1.5 million the Raptors drew in their playoff finale.

But this was a game involving no Canadian team and that 1.2 million doesn’t really tell the whole story.

That figure doesn’t include the unknown number of Canadians who chose to watch the game on ABC. Since the series bounced around between TSN and Sportsnet in Canada, odds are a significant number of Canadians watched on ABC rather than trying to guess which Canadian channel had the game.

Trade space: How relationships shape deals | Nylon Calculus

Every team has employed a General Manager from another team, at some point. The key takeaway is that there’s a group of people that cut across teams. Sometimes, it’s a weak connection — for example, Boston, who is one Chris Wallace away from being on an island — but it’s still there. So, isn’t it really more important to study who is making the trades — and not the team — to better understand these relationships over time? If we know who works with who, and who doesn’t work with each other, we may be able to look ahead to future trades.

NBA Rumour Mill: Raptors eyeing Millsap? | TSN

With the Atlanta Hawks sending Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers and Al Horford already in free agency there may be more assets heading out of Atlanta. TSN’s Josh Lewenberg expects the Toronto Raptors to pursue All-Star Forward Paul Millsap again after the team showed interest in him leading up to this year’s trade deadline.

Did I miss something? Send me any Raptors-related article/video to rapsfan@raptorsrepublic.com