They say big men take the longest of all basketball players to develop and find their footing in the NBA. And for Jonas Valanciunas, it seems like he’s turned a significant corner. Coming into his fifth full year with the Raptors, Jonas (while he had some obvious skill coming into the league) has developed into a more polished offensive force, evidenced by gargantuan performances in last year’s playoffs, and now he’s already showing signs of that capability early on this season.
For the Raptors and Dwane Casey, don’t forget that this is new territory. Despite his size and skill level in the post, Casey has often shied away from using the Lithuanian big man earlier in his career, primarily due to his inexperience, or possibly just because of a lack of trust. There was something about JV’s play (seemingly his aloofness) that made him untrustworthy in Casey’s eyes for those first couple of years. It made getting fourth quarter minutes, let alone touches consistently down the stretch, a pleasant surprise for JV. And soon enough, Coach Casey heard the Raptor fans’ wrath.
Camouflaged into the Raptors season last year, mixed in with career years from Lowry, DeRozan, Joseph, and Biyombo, was the play of Valanciunas. Jonas missed 22 games due to a hand injury sustained early on in the season in November, and while Biyombo filled in admirably for those ensuing games, Raptor fans were left to question whether bringing JV back would disrupt the offense, or if it was even the right call given how well Biyombo was playing. But in his time prior to the injury, the home stretch, and heading into the playoffs, he made his presence felt – big time.
So much so, that the numbers unequivocally proved it. In fact, in the 7 games that Valanciunas scored 20 points or more last season, the Raptors went 6-1, and they were considerably better when he scored more than 10 points than when he was under that threshold. The Raptors also went 20-7 when he was at 10 rebounds or more. Here’s a more detailed graphical look at how JV’s point and rebound production correlated with Raptor wins.
That’s significant. While usage statistics may be a better measure of how often we opted for JV in those games, the overall correlation between JV’s inside presence and resulting Raptors success can’t be denied. And remember, these were the just regular season numbers – the Raptors were significantly more powerful when JV asserted himself in the playoffs. In fact, the way Lowry and DeMar were shooting in that first series against the Pacers, JV may have very well been the only reason the Raptors escaped that series.
Jonas’ production in the playoffs went up mostly as a result of his increased usage in offensive schemes, as his field goal efficiency practically remained the same, but overall production increased. He was more active on the glass, and was a beast on the offensive boards specifically, averaging 4 offensive rebounds a game. One offensive rebound that still sticks out to me was the timely tip-in after a DeMar missed free-throw late in Game 2 against the Pacers to seal that potentially franchise-defining game.
Here were some of the JV highlights from that pivotal contest:
So what does all of this mean for Dwane Casey and the Raptors? Well, after losing Bismack Biyombo in the offseason and now suffering a huge blow to the front court with injuries to the starting power-forward and to the planned second-string centre, Coach Casey’s hand has been forced. And while you’re probably thinking that means more playing time and opportunities for Jakob Poeltl or others, it really means that Jonas’ production becomes that much more important. We’ve seen how imposing he can be when he’s healthy, and with another year under his belt since then, the time is now to reap the benefits of the long-term draft choice made by Bryan Colangelo back in 2011. In other words, given their current situation, it’s probably better for the Raps to utilize JV more, and opt for Lowry and DeRozan somewhat less, rather than letting those 2 guys carry the offensive load while balancing minutes at the centre spot.
Jonas’ usage percentage has increased every year in the league, but has remained just around 20% for the past 3 seasons. You may recall, it was only last season where we saw we saw Dwane Casey play Jonas down the stretch and late in games; something we had never really seen before that. The question then becomes: can JV’s usage continue at its current pace of 25% or so for the remainder of the season? Given his efficiency and increased offensive prowess, increasing usage of JV is a logical conclusion, though it has some obvious negatives as well.
What remains to be seen is whether Jonas can remain healthy for an entire season – something he’s failed to do twice in his first four years in the league. Usage, minutes, and the positions he’s ultimately put in will all be vital factors for his health, and while he deserves many touches, minute usage by Casey will be an interesting factor to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. With Jakob Poeltl showing some signs that he can be a capable big off the bench, the jury is still out on whether the Raptors can really withstand long stretches without their starting centre in the mix. But for now, I’d still bank on the Raptors opting for JV wherever possible, and only going to Poeltl to give JV adequate rest (at least until the lineup is fully healthy).
So for all of those reasons and more, I think JV in many ways, is a major key to this season. DeMar DeRozan is likely to take a scoring lead on most nights, and Lowry will surely follow suit on many others. But the key cog that will put the Raptors over the edge on most nights is their starting centre. It’s time we take a moment, and let the JV era begin.
