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Small Sample Size Theatre, Vol. 1: Early Season Assists – Raptors Republic

ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK
Passes made has only been tracked since 2014 and the Raptors current mark of 258.7 would be the second lowest recorded to date, with Mark Jackson’s Warriors being the only team to best(or worst?) them. For those of us who remember the pre-Kerr Warriors the Raptors being near them in terms of sharing and inclusiveness on offense is not a very comforting thought. The Raptors did well to get themselves into the middle of the pack last year but have regressed in part because they’ve been able to create so much offense off the dribble and on the offensive glass.
Not surprisingly it’s DeRozan who has taken the biggest step back in playmaking relative to the previous three seasons. Adjusted assist-to-pass percentage measures the percentage of passes that turn into assists, secondary assists or FT assists and it has DeMar performing well over the last few years; he was the team leader in 2014 and 2016 and trailed Kyle Lowry by less than a point in 2015. So far he is 5th on the team and his solid 13.4 from last season has dipped to 7.3 this season. He hasn’t been a very willing passer or a very effective one, but to be fair this isn’t just on him and so long as he is scoring like this it probably doesn’t matter. It does mean that if his scoring volume or efficiency starts to regress he needs to return to form as a playmaker if the Raptors are going to fight for a top spot in what appears to be a more competitive Eastern Conference, though.

Lucas Nogueira ready to reclaim Raptors’ backup centre job – Sportsnet.ca

Before the pre-season Casey referred to him as the “prime candidate” for the backup center spot. But Nogueira has no expectations, and the rapid learning curve of Siakam and Poeltl is difficult to ignore.
The Raptors have never been shy about thrusting young players into duty if necessary, and Nogueira’s correct that if he coasts or stumbles, the team has other options.
“I’m not gonna say it’s my spot because I have more time in the league than the rookies,” he says of the elephants in the room, “The Raptors just drafted two amazing big men, so I’ve gotta fight for the position.”
As inconsistent as Nogueira can sometimes be both on and off the court, his attitude toward his role has mostly remained steady. And while sometimes when he speaks you can hear the frustration in not being able to offer the full gamut of his talents, he’s keenly aware of what it’s going to take to win this position battle. Aware that he needs to lock down any role before he can worry about expanding it.
“I have a lot to show people. But not to prove,” he clarifies. “Because I know I can do a lot of things, but the coach don’t need me to do those things. Basically, they want me to catch alley-oops, run the floor, set screens, and block shots. And those things you don’t need to learn, it’s kinda natural. God gave me the size and the length.”

Kyle Lowry and the $200 Million Question: What’s the Risk? – Raptors HQ

If the Raptors sign Lowry to a deal like that, they are betting on him replicating his top notch play through his age 34-35 season. It’s not the typical result for a short guard, but it’s not impossible or even impractical. As shown above, 16% of the sample, or about 1 in 6 guards, maintained 90% or more of their peak performance, and of those guards, they averaged a 106% retention rate (several guards actually got better with age, Sam Cassell, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson among them). Applying that 106% retention rate to Lowry’s peak average performance puts him at 9.1 WS per season, which is worth about $27 million. That’s about $10 million below his projected maximum salary, but such is life in a league with rookie scale contracts skewing salary-to-performance ratios. That’s at least in the ball park.
For the record, if you use Lowry’s last few years (age 27-29) as his peak rather than from age 25, as he’s been a late bloomer, that projected performance goes up to 10.7 WS per year, worth about a $32 million salary. That’s a very generous assumption though.
All of these numbers projected are far above the expectation of generating WS at only one third the production rate of his career to date. But the most likely case is not better enough, at roughly three quarters of his career average to date, to be worth re-signing at maximum money.

Fear the Ranks: Eastern Conference power rankings after the first week – Fear The Sword

DeMar DeRozan looks like he got the legendary Team USA bump coming off of his Olympic experience this summer. The Toronto shooting guard is averaging an obscene 35 points per game on 53 percent shooting so far this year and has the Raptors looking dynamic. Kyle Lowry is struggling a little bit in the early going but a close loss to the defending champions is the only blemish on Toronto’s resume which has done little to do anything than confirm that Toronto remains the biggest challenger to Cleveland in the East.