This past Halloween, Patrick Patterson took questions in front of his locker after the game, fake fro and boom box in place, the game already an afterthought. It was hard to look at him with any sense of conviction; any sense of seriousness.
“Y’all just dumbfounded by the outfit right now, y’all speechless right now. You’re just looking at the outfit, don’t know what to ask.”
On a night that Patrick Patterson considers his favourite of the year, the team’s performance against Denver was a microcosm of his time in Toronto. A great first impression, followed by stretches where many were left dumbfounded, before the overall package finally proved to be adequate for the job.
Since Toronto lost Christopher Wessen Bosh to ‘The Heatles’ in 2010, the Raptors have made do with the likes of Amir Johnson and Luis Scola as their starting four man. With the Raptors achieving franchise-record regular season win totals, the relative weakness at the position could be tolerated. But falling short on the biggest stage showcased this major void, and Ujiri did everything in his power to address it.
Masai Ujiri aimed for the moon and hoped to land a star with attempts to trade for Serge Ibaka first, and then Paul Millsap, but for all his efforts, he could only emerge with Jared Sullinger. It was a sobering result, but the positive was that it would still be an upgrade over Scola. That positivity was quickly shot down, as Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical dug further into Toronto’s woes at the four with the news that Sullinger would require a screw in his right foot and miss at least the first quarter of the season.
While all of this has transpired, Patrick Patterson has continued to lurk in the shadows.
Now into his fourth season with the team, Patterson has become one of the vocal leaders of this team. But while he talks a good game, his walk has teased enough to leave many wanting more. He fits the modern day stretch four prototype to a T; a 6’9” forward that can shoot the three, hold his own defending in the low post, but also hang with guys on the perimeter. Yet, despite all these tools, he has yet to take the step from niche filler on a good team to sure-fire difference maker on a great one. When asked about those fans that yearn for more, Patterson had this to say at Tuesday’s practice:
“People outside the organization, people outside the locker room, they tend to focus on the stat sheet, you know, they don’t understand the little things, as far as contesting shots, communicating, defensive schemes, all the little stuff that I do out there.”
It isn’t that these little things go unappreciated. But rather, that when people see his physical attributes combined with all that he can offer the team, it becomes a question of why he can’t put it all together more consistently.
When Toronto let Amir Johnson walk to the Celtics, it was done so with the intention of paving the way for Patrick Patterson as a starter. Scola was supposed to be the wily vet that could chip in off the bench, but the time had come for Patrick Patterson to lay his claim to fame as a starter. Instead of seizing the opportunity with both hands, Patterson struggled so badly during preseason that Dwane Casey felt he had no choice but to make Scola the starter on opening night of the 2015/16 season.
Back in his comfort zone off the bench, he thrived. He finished with the best net rating (+9.3) of any bench player not from Golden State or San Antonio. He also finished with a team-high on/off court rating of +10.6, with Kyle Lowry coming closest at +6.6. Despite Scola’s play disintegrating completely in the second half, the Raptors persisted with him as a starter to keep Patterson in his happy place. As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Raptors were winning, and that was the bottom-line.
Come playoff time though, Scola’s lack of productivity was hurting the Raptors ability to win games. Patterson had no choice but to embrace the starter’s role, and while he could summon the energy to provide defense and rebounding, his three-point shot fell off miserably. After shooting roughly 43% from three-point range in January, February, and March, he shot 30% over 20 playoff games, including just 23% over the final ten. This isn’t a one-time happenstance either: He shot 30% from beyond the arc after the All-Star break of the 2014-15 season as well; the year Toronto fell apart after the All-Star break and were swept out of the first round.
Last season, he made 33.3% of his long-distance attempts in November, and dipped down to 25.8% in December. This year, he has come out making just three of his 14 three-point attempts (21.4%). There’s some noise here, but the signs point to this being a player that likes to work his way into form when the season starts, and then runs out of gas by season’s end.
The theory that Patterson’s team impact stats are inflated by those around him is also debate worthy. For those great ratings mentioned previously, he also had a team-worst player production at his position rating of -4.6 (82games.com) in 2015/16. Perhaps the bench units that feature Kyle Lowry, and to a lesser extent, DeMar DeRozan have inflated his numbers. But it may also speak to the importance of the characteristics of the game he offers. His statistical lack of individual productivity is still overshadowed by what he offers in team functionality.
So here are the Raptors, four games into the 2016/17 season, with their projected starting power forward out for potentially the first couple of months of the season. Instead of going with their veteran, they have committed to a rookie as the starter. A rookie who, despite making a strong start, is a -5.4 with the rest of the starting lineup thus far. Toss Patterson in with the rest of the starters, and that lineup jumps to +10.1.
It says a fair deal about Patterson that Casey is so unwilling to displace him from his comfort zone. Casey loves Patterson and will ensure he gets starter’s minutes, all the little things he does warrants that. But on nights in May, and for those that dare to dream, June, when Lowry and DeRozan are blitzed and must look for help, that’s when Patterson will leave even his most ardent supporters hoping for more, rather than expecting it.
On a night where he wore a Halloween outfit that both confounded and impressed, it served as a good reminder of Patrick Patterson, the basketball player. A player that will trick as much as he treats, and thus struggle to be taken as seriously as he should.
