Rumors are a big part of the NBA. They allow us as fans to have things to take about between games other than whether DeMar DeRozan has officially become the greatest player of all time, or whether he will fall back to the mere All Star that he was.
But rumors help fill the void, and we now have our first Raptors related trade rumor of the young season. It’s been around for a few days, as Marc Stein broke the report late last week that the Raptors have renewed interest in Nerlens Noel of the Philadelphia 76ers.
We’ve since seen unsubstantiated reports on Twitter that Philadelphia is initially looking to get Cory Joseph and a 2017 First Round Pick in the trade. Here’s where this rumor started:
Source: #Raptors heavily interested in Nerlens Noel. #Sixers would like a first rounder and Cory Jospeh in return. Both sides talking.
— Trey Rodriguez (@TreyPOV) November 5, 2016
So, first things first: that specific trade report is garbage. I don’t care if that is in fact what the 76ers are looking for, but there is no chance that Masai goes anywhere near something like that. The fact that I have read 76ers fans saying it is not enough is insane, as I can’t imagine a world in which Nerlens Noel currently carries more trade value than Cory Joseph. Perhaps I am undervaluing Nerlens Noel on this one, but I can’t wrap my head around a trade of this nature.
Reports don’t get leaked from Toronto’s front office. Since Masai Ujiri’s arrival, the Toronto Raptors have had a lock on their own information that even Woj has struggled to penetrate. This means that it almost certainly comes from the 76ers. And this may be a big reason why Toronto continually gets brought up in random trade reports. Loved this point that Blake brought up late last week:
Noel being tied to the Raptors once again is at the same time interesting and frustrating. I note it’s frustrating mostly because the chatter almost surely isn’t coming from Toronto’s camp, and Bryan Colangelo has been known to try to control his message and play the public perception game when working the market. That’s entirely fine and justifiable, but sometimes I wonder if people leak the Raptors as potential trade partners knowing the team isn’t going to say anything about it either way.
Just last year the Raptors were linked to Ersan Ilyasova, Markieff Morris, Kenneth Faried, Joe Johnson, and Nerlens Noel. And that’s just from the top of my head, as I’m sure there are others. When it comes to a SF or PF being on the market, the Raptors seem to always come up.
Maybe that’s just a coincidence, but I highly doubt it.
I’m not even here to argue for or against the Raptors trading for Nerlens Noel. At the right price, I think he would certainly be an interesting addition and a potential long term piece on a competitive team, and the wrong price (Cory Joseph and a first) could destroy the Raptors both now and in the years to come.
The Raptors are in an enviable position within the NBA. A 56 win roster coming off of an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, that returned almost all of their core pieces, added two first round draft picks (including a top ten selection), and remain one of the youngest rosters in the league.
Toronto also currently owns two first round draft picks in 2017: their own, and the LA Clippers pick (top 14 protected) from the Greivis Vasquez trade.
With the youth already on the roster, it’s seems unlikely that Toronto keeps both of these 2017 picks, but that was the general belief last season about the 2016 draft and we now have both Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam.
With Masai Ujiri we can never be certain about the exact steps that he will take, but he has clearly shown himself to be patient and opportunistic. He has exploited teams who were looking for quick gains (New York and Milwaukee), and has struck fast when the right trade comes along (Rudy Gay to Sacramento) that he believes will bring the team closer to being a championship caliber group.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Raptors end the season with our present roster. I also wouldn’t be shocked if several trades take place that change the roster and key rotation players. I’m guessing that Masai finds himself in this same position.
And as the Raptors are sure to be dropped into trade rumors throughout the season, let’s run through a few basic things to consider when reading speculation.
1) Check The Source
Who is talking about the rumor is a key way to evaluate whether it has any credibility to it. Let’s use Cory Joseph and a First for Nerlens Noel as an example. I don’t know who Trey Rodriguez is, and I do not know whether he has any insider sources. This isn’t to say that he doesn’t, but he is not a trusted source when it comes to information.
Look for guys like Woj, Marc Stein (where the initial Nerlens Noel/Raptors rumor came from), Zach Lowe, and Shams Charania as a short list. This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, but is rather just a few examples of key people. Don’t take a rumor from just any source.
2) Who Benefits from Rumor?
Based on the Raptors track record since Masai’s arrival, any rumor that you read/hear is most likely coming from within a different organization’s front office, and there is a reason in which the information is being leaked.
So who benefits from the rumor coming out?
Does it allow a team to appease their fan base by showing interest in another player? (Danny Ainge and the Celtics feel like the classic example of this, as they are publically linked to any big name player that is or isn’t on the trade market.) Or is a team trying to set a value for a public value for a player they want to trade?
No matter what the rumor is, there is a reason why it has been leaked and a person/team that benefits from the information being public.
3) Is it Legal?
The NBA has many rules that dictate what is and isn’t a legal trade. The ESPN Trade Machine incorporates many of them, and it seems like there are regular rumors that couldn’t legally happen. When in doubt, a fun resource is Larry Coon’s CBA Frequently Asked Questions is a great resource.
4) Speculation is Fun!
Above all, trade speculation is another fun part of being a fan. It gives us something to analyze and debate. It gives us another means of comparing players/teams, and just provides us with something to talk about.
Sports are supposed to be fun. Even rumors that I find insane and come from unrealistic sources can still add some fun to a random day. They aren’t worth taking seriously, but they can open up a fun conversation about related and unrelated topics.
How important is Cory Joseph to the Raptors? Does his skill set fit on a Philadelphia team desperate for shooting? Could Nerlens Noel play with Jonas Valanciunas for stretches, or would he be a luxury back-up centre? How much value is there in 2017 draft picks, and what possible draft eligible players could be available?
Even a highly skeptical trade rumor can still provide lots of great conversation. It’s the whole reason we have trade forums to begin with.
As of today there are just 107 days until this season’s trade deadline (February 23, 2017) and there are bound to be many rumors for us to explore. Some will be accurate, others will be idiotic, or weird, or intriguing.
Let’s enjoy it and, to borrow a line from the aforementioned Philadelphia 76ers, trust the process of it all.
