This isn’t news but injuries suck. They suck for the fans, the other players on the team, the team itself, it’s hard to find any positive in a player going down. The Raptors have been relatively banged up already this season, both Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross have missed time with smaller injuries, DeMarre Carroll is playing but continuing to recover from his knee surgery from a season ago, and even before the regular season started newly signed power forward Jared Sullinger broke his foot requiring major time off. Injuries are part of the game, usually good teams have deep rotations that when a key acquisition goes down, the player replacing their minutes doesn’t give the team a huge drop off in production.
The Raptors entering the regular season had a weak front court situation, with the loss of backup centre Bismack Biyombo in the offseason, and the Jared Sullinger injury the Raptors were stuck looking for answers. Coach Dwayne Casey likes the continuity of Patrick Patterson playing within the second unit, even though past performances suggest Patterson is fully capable of playing in the starting unit considering he’s finished most of the games over the past two seasons.
Coach Casey was left with no real choice, selecting Pascal Siakam (the 27th overall pick in the 2016 draft) to become the starting power forward. Siakam had impressed many fans in the preseason, showing a defensive IQ well beyond his years, that defensive IQ was met with an imposing 7”3 wingspan, a high energy presence on the glass, and an offensive game that was more polished than people expected before the draft.
For the season, the 22 year old is averaging 18.8 minutes per game, scoring 5.8 points, on 54% shooting on 5.1 field goal attempts per game, and pulling down 4.3 rebounds. Obviously these numbers aren’t jaw dropping by any means in this short 14 game sample size, but in context for a late first round draft pick, it’s amazing that Siakam is contributing to a playoff team at all, not something others drafted around him can say. Siakam shows a ton of potential in expanding his game offensively, and some of his moves have gotten better as he’s found his place.
It should be noted that Siakam is playing a majority of his minutes with the starting lineup, and will always be the fifth offensive option in that lineup, and his 13.5USG% backs up the fact he’s just not going to get many touches for himself on offensive. That’s really where his offensive value lies, for a rookie expected to make mistakes (which he does from time to time) Siakam is very good at playing within his offensive skill set, never settling for bad shots, putting himself in position to score, doing all the little things like diving to the basket after a high pick, or spacing out when DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry drive to the basket.
When Siakam does get the opportunity to post up he shows an ability to score pretty efficiently. Below is a compilation of some of his post-ups this season. In the first clip DeRozan swings the ball for Siakam to go to work (this is a pretty rare offensive set for the Raptors), with Kenneth Faried on his back Siakam makes him bite with a left fake and is able to quickly switch back where Faried is late to contest the shot. The second clip, he is fed the ball off a pick and roll with Lowry, backing down Kosta Koufas with DeMarcus Cousins denying any penetration to the middle, Siakam shows he doesn’t need deep post position to score down low. Siakam makes a quick turn and goes up strong against Koufas. In the third clip, he shows even more skill driving in with his left hand, spinning, absorbing the contact, and scoring as he fades away from the basket.
Siakam has impressive touch around the rim already, shooting 65% on shots from 0-3 feet from the rim. One of his greatest attributes as a rookie is his decisiveness when he gets the ball in the post. His quick decision making is well beyond his years, and these intangibles that Siakam already possesses shows a lot of promise. One of these intangibles is his ability to create/disrupt opposing defences with his transition scoring. At least once a game off defensive rebounds, Siakam sprints the floor past the opposing team’s defense getting setup for easy transition baskets.
It’s these kinds of extra effort plays, always going after 50/50 balls, and the high energy that Siakam bring to the floor that will always help him find the floor in Coach Casey’s rotation.
One of the things Siakam has room to improve is his shooting. Some say the power forward position in the NBA is dying, I consider it transitioning to a more versatile role. Power forwards are asked to step outside the restricted area, be more athletic, and have the ability to shoot. Siakam’s shot isn’t bad, it’s actually way better than expected.
As you can see from the video below, Faried sags off Siakam as Lowry drives to basket. When the defence collapses on Lowry, Siakam back pedals slightly to create a bit more space, Lowry kicks it out for a pretty confident looking jumper. As mentioned before, Siakam is great at diving to rim in the PNR, but in the next clip he shows with enough space he can also pick and pop for jump shots.
That’s where Pascal’s development could get scary, some bigs only have the ability to do one or the other, roll or pop, making them pretty one dimensional in the pick and roll. It’s nice if the player is elite at one, but being able to do both makes for an offensive weapon, much like Kevin Love in his Timberwolves days. Siakam already has the ability to shoot with some confidence, as his game develops so will his range, making for an even more interesting prospect for the future.
With the Raptors main power forward Patrick Patterson playing so poorly, it might not be such a bad idea to increase Siakam’s minutes down the stretch. So far this season Patterson has 40TS%, which ranks him sixth worst in the NBA of players playing at least 25 mintues per game. It’s still very early in the season, and the Raptors need Patterson to start performing on the offensive end, seeing shots start falling for him won’t only help his confidence, but will be a huge addition to the Raptors offense. If Patterson continues to struggle offensively, Siakam could fill Patterson’s role, guarding mobile wings and smaller bigs, while continuing to grow offensively in crunch time minutes.
If theres one small positive we can take away from the Sullinger injury, is we are seeing the potential value Siakam has on this team moving forward. Even when Sullinger comes back from injury, it’s hard to imagine Siakam seeing a significant drop off in playing time if Patterson’s poor play continues. If Patterson’s play gets back to his average, it would fun to see Casey even go to a very small lineup using Siakam at the five position. A lineup that might suffer pulling down defensive rebounds, but would be electric in transition, have the ability to space the floor, and play with great pace.
Drafting players can be one of the toughest jobs for a GM, drafting players in the later slots can be even tougher. Picking a 18-20 year old kid to produce at the highest level, and somehow predicting how that player will turn out in 5-6 years is all chance. Go through a list of GM’s who served a long tenure, you can always find a couple of “busts” they picked, along with a couple of absolute steals. It’s extremely early in Siakam’s career, but he is showing signs and skills that he will be an absolute steal with the 27th pick.
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