Let’s start by prefacing this, the 2016-2017 Raptors are really, really, fun to watch. Aside from currently having a 19-8 record, and being one of the best teams in the league, the Raptors have a handful of exciting players that makes them one of the must watch NBA teams this season. In a world where everyone is trying to emulate the style of play of the Golden State Warriors, the Raptors are playing a very different brand of basketball. Right now the Raptors lead the league in Offensive Rating at 115.4, and are second in Net Rating at 10.5 (behind the Warriors). The only asterisk in the Raps play right now, they’re currently ranked 18th in defensive rating.
The big question mark remains “Is this great play we are currently seeing sustainable into another deep playoff run?”. It’s really a tough question to answer, they certainly have the roster, and scoring ability to do so, but relying on a ton of shots dropping isn’t always reassuring when every game could mean the end of your season.
The question of how to win basketball games is complex, to help answer it, Dean Oliver created the “Four Factors”. If these four factors are executed well both on offense and defense, teams have a better chance to win games. It’s a very simplified answer that isn’t a foolproof answer, but one that puts some perspective on a complex question. Shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws, basically the four ways a possession can end. Those numbers are calculated through eFG%, TO Ratio, FT Rate, OREB%, for both offense and for defense.
Offensively, the Raptors rank top seven in each Four Factor category, which should be no surprise to anyone. They currently rank 23rd in the NBA in PACE, that slower tempo allows them to get into their half court sets, playing a brand of basketball that doesn’t pass the ball that much in comparison to other teams. That slow play/low risk offense allows them to be a very smart team with the ball, turning the ball over the second least in the NBA.
The Raptors continue to be one of the leagues elite free throw shooting teams. Their free throw rate is extremely high, as they attempt the third most free throws per game, lead by DeMar DeRozan taking close to nine free throw attempts. They regularly draw a ton of fouls on their 30.3 average drives to the basket per game. On top of that they also shoot 81.6% when they get to the line, making free throws a huge weapon in their offense.
Even though they aren’t passing as much as a team, the Raptors have capable scorers who are usually able to find good shots. With the Raptors attacking the basket so much, they finish a majority of their shots at the rim. While their roster might not have the three point shooting of other teams, they take the quality over quantity approach when it comes to three point shooting. Currently ranking 23rd in the NBA in attempts, at 24.4 threes attempted a game, but hit on 39.5% of them, which is third in the NBA. The Raptors get to a high effective field goal percentage, by improved shot selection this season. Offensively it’s hard to find many holes in the Raptors system right now. The Raptors are scoring very efficiently and using a style of play that perfectly suits how their roster is constructed.
However, defensively, they are all over the place in Four Factors ratings. In opponent eFG% they’re 20th, opponent free throw rate 17th, opponent turnover rate 3rd, but the most concerning being opponent OREB% 30th or dead last. The Raptors are allowing opponents to grab 26.4% of all available offensive rebounds on the floor, league average is 21.9%. That difference of 4.5% is big when it context of adding 4.5 more possession or allowing 4.5 more second chance points over the course of a game.
The Raptors interior defense has had it’s fair share of problems this season. Jonas Valanciunas has shown glimpses of stellar rim protection, and then a handful of games where he goes missing on defense. Pascal Siakam who has also shown glimpses of being a good on ball defender, but hasn’t shown a great sense for grabbing rebounds. Patrick Patterson, is arguably the Raptors best defensive front court option. Patterson is a very smart defender in almost all aspects, and shows the unique ability to guard multiple positions, unfortunately he doesn’t have the size to make him an elite rebounder. This has proven troublesome when he is playing minutes at centre when Valanciunas is having an off game or match ups dictate a smaller lineup. Lucas Nogueira has been a major bright spot defensively, but is still seeing less than 19 minutes per game, and has missed 8 games to injury already this season.
When Nogueira does see playing time, he’s helping fill the the role that Bismack Biyombo gave the Raptors last season off the bench. It seems logical that Nogueira will see some more time in the future, as his rim protection has taken major strides this season. Bebe also posses the length, verticality, and rebounding smarts to box out some of the better rebounders in the league, and as a bonus has proven that he can hold his own on the offensive end. Bebe’s development over the course of the season might be a huge piece for the Raptors come playoff time.
While it was an ugly game to watch, the Raptors loss to the Atlanta Hawks this past Friday was a nice wakeup call for the team. The Raptors allowed the Hawks to score 125 points on their home court, for one of the ugliest defensive showings of the season. The Raptors had a slightly higher eFG% that game, a better turnover percentage, but the Hawks had a 42.9% ORB% compared to the Raptors 21.6%.
Dwight Howard proved to be a major problem for the Raptors front court. Both Valanciunas, and Nogueira really struggled boxing out Howard on the offensive glass. Howard ended the game with 15 rebounds, 7 of them on the offensive end. Howard would post a 28.2% OREB% that game, with players like Mike Muscala at 15.6%, and even Kent Bazemore at 12.3%. A lot of these second chance points killed the Raptors. It also got a lot of players into foul trouble leading to a big discrepancy in free throw rates that game. Howard converted for 7/10 free throws, which isn’t always going to be the case as he’s shooting 52% from the line this season. Howard’s ability to crash the glass, convert free throws, and get the Raptors in overall foul trouble was a major reason the Raptors had such a rough night.
The addition of Jared Sullinger might help the Raptors pull down rebounds against matchup’s like Howard, but as currently constructed the Raptors might continue to struggle in some games matching up against elite rebounding centers. The rebounding problem is real right now, and maybe that Hawks game is completely different if Valanciunas plays like he did in Orlando last night. The problem is a real concern moving forward, but hopefully come playoff time the Raptors are pulling down their opponents missed shots more frequently.
Follow – @Spenred
