To say the Toronto Raptors need a win right now would be a bit of an understatement. Losers of five in a row for the first time in years, the Raptors at least showed some positive signs in scrapping to one-possession losses to very good Spurs and Grizzlies team on a back-to-back, all without their leading scorer DeMar DeRozan. But those games were winnable, with each opponent thinned out with multiple injuries, and the three losses that preceded those were of a more frustrating variety. Very good teams don’t often lose five in a row, an the recent slide has not only passed up a chance to gain ground on the sputtering Cleveland Cavaliers, but it’s allowed the Celtics and Hawks to both pull within a game of second in the East (and the right to coach the All-Star Game!).
The Milwaukee Bucks, meanwhile, visit the Air Canada Centre in nearly as rough shape. Losers of six of their last seven – a curiously terrific win against the Rockets saved them from a seven-game slide – the Bucks have lost to the 76ers twice, the Magic, and the Heat in this stretch, and they’ve been blown out a handful of times. Would-be playoff contenders, the Bucks are now 21-24 and, while it’s early to look at such things, a game behind the tire-fire Bulls for the final playoff spot. They could use a victory here, too, and some encouragement that their 20th-ranked defense can gear up against a quality offensive opponent.
Something has to give. One of these teams, at least theoretically, has to win this game. I suppose the world could end. But if it doesn’t, one of these teams will head into the weekend with an enormous weight off their collective shoulders.
The game tips off at 7:30 on Sportsnet One and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage for the game, we tried to reach out to some Bucks bloggers but came up empty. Hopefully, the Raptors have better luck.
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Raptors updates
The big question facing the Raptors is the status of leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. He is set to be re-evaluated today, but it’s unlikely that there’s a firm update on his status until shootaround, or maybe even until game-time. It’s hard to project such things, but context clues Monday – his quotes, the way the team talked about preparing for life without him, his limp – suggested he’d probably miss a bit more time. On the bright side, he didn’t require a walking boot and they kept him behind Wednesday for further rehabilitation, so maybe he’ll surprise and get the nod.
If DeRozan can’t go, the succession plan is clear – Kyle Lowry sees about a six-point bump in usage rate, Norman Powell turns back into NORMAN POWELL !!!, Terrence Ross picks up the slack half the time, and Cory Joseph, still struggling defensively, helps out with the scoring load. Ideally, there’d be a bit more ball movement and the team’s 3-point shooters wouldn’t be in a pretty serious slump (the Raptors still rank fifth in 3-point percentage on the season), and the Bucks have a lot of length to throw at traps for Lowry to try to force the ball out of his hands. This could be a big game for the team’s screen-setters making plays in 4-on-3 situations, and it’s telling that the last two meetings between the teams saw the Raptors put up strong assist numbers by their standards (18 and 26; they average just shy of 19).
Outside of DeRozan, the primary question is who guards Giannis Antetkounmpo, and that’s a job that will likely be shared by multiple perimeter defenders, and perhaps Patrick Patterson. DeMarre Carroll isn’t exactly well-suited to Antetokounmpo’s style, and there’s a case to be made that he should be guarding Jabari Parker or Tony Snell, given that Powell and Patterson could conceivably check Antetokounpo. Powell gives up a lot of size there but has the quicks, while Patterson has the savvy to at least force him to slow things down. Expect a lot of different looks thrown at Antetokounmpo and for Dwane Casey to make transition defense a major priority – Jonas Valanciunas will probably be alone crashing the offensive glass, where the Bucks are susceptible.
Speaking of Valanciunas, he hasn’t had huge games against Milwaukee (23 points and 19 rebounds over two meetings), but in theory this is a good matchup for him. Miles Plumlee is someone he can check and take into the post, he and Greg Monroe should be able to score at will against each other, and Valanciunas is easily the best rebounder on either team.
As an aside, here’s a look at how the Raptors’ four primary big-man pairings have done so far. The samples are admittedly small with Jared Sullinger, who has played poorly but deserves some rope to get it going (outside of the quick trigger on above-the-break threes, which need to cease). It’s unclear who the Raptors may start at power forward since Patterson and Sullinger swapped for the second half on Wednesday.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet
SG: Norman Powell, Terrence Ross
SF: DeMarre Carroll
PF: Jared Sullinger, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Delon Wright, Bruno Caboclo
OUT: DeMar DeRozan
UPDATE: DeRozan is out.
Bucks updates
The Bucks enter at full health, save for Khris Middleton, who could be back sometime after the All-Star break. The idea of Middleton, perhaps this team’s best shooter and another strong, long perimeter defender getting added to this mix is somewhat terrifying. The Bucks stood to be a plucky playoff out regardless, but getting Middleton back gives Jason Kidd even more weapons defensively and adds a much-needed element to the offense. To be honest – and it’s early for this – I’d want little part of this team in the first round. The amount of length they’d have to aggressively trap Raptors’ ball-handlers, a strategy Kidd used to strong effect as head coach of the Nets in the 2013-14 playoffs, could really stand to make things tough on the Raptors’ offense.
For now, though, that’s not as big a concern. The Bucks will play that way Friday, to be sure, but their defense overall hasn’t been particularly effective, and the one-on-one defenders they can throw at Lowry are more of the pesky variety than the lock-down type (all due respect to human bed bug Matthew Dellavedova). It’s conceivable that if Lowry starts going off again, Antetokounmpo draws that assignment, something the Bucks can probably only get away with if DeRozan sits. Elsewhere, the Bucks will probably be aggressive in sending help at the pick-and-roll, daring the Raptors to beat them with ball movement. This might be a good game for Sullinger to get going, if the Raptors can find him some post touches against Jabari Parker and Mirza Teletovic. (Parker, by the way, has been awesome this year.)
One other note: So help me god if Tony Snell goes off again. I might make Will rename his podcast segment to the Tony Snell award.
PG: Matthew Dellavedova, Malcolm Brogdon, Jason Terry
SG: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rashad Vaughn
SF: Tony Snell, Michael Beasley, Steve Novak
PF: Jabari Parker, Mirza Teletovic
C: Miles Plumlee, Greg Monroe, John Henson, Thon Maker
ASSIGNED: None
TBD: None
OUT: Khris Middleton
The line
The line is presently off the board, likely due to the swing that the status of DeRozan will cause. Check back in the pre-game notes for a line, but expect the Raptors to be slightly favored if he sits, and more substantially so if he’s active.
