How important is home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs to you? Depending on your answer, the Toronto Raptors’ game against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday will carry varying degrees of importance. By beating the Hawks, the Raptors could all but assure they have control of their own fate in the race to lock up a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference – a win would put Toronto four games ahead of Atlanta for that spot, and it would give them the tiebreaker over them in the event they draw even, essentially making it a five-game lead. The only other team that would be in striking distance, then, would be the Pacers, against whom the Raptors still have three games.
Toronto’s in survival mode a bit right now, though, and every game presents a tough challenge. They want to win each night regardless of seeding implications, quite obviously, so this is more of a backdrop than a focus of the locker room. What’s more, there’s no telling the four-seed is going to be their fate – they’re just 1.5 games back of Washington, and the Wizards have a very tough stretch coming up at the end of the month. They’re also only 2.5 games back of Boston, and the Raptors own the tiebreaker against both of those teams. Complicating matters further? That Boston is only two games back of Cleveland, and if they were to jump the Cavaliers, the fourth seed suddenly becomes preferable to the third seed.
All of this is to say: It’s a little early to focus on the standings too closely, and the Raptors are in a position where they need to stack up wins regardless of opponent. The Hawks present a tough matchup but a winnable one, and the potential for the Raptors to move to 7-2 without Kyle Lowry on the year should inspire a ton of confidence in their depth and their ability to make it through the rest of March in good shape and in good spirits.
The game tips off at 8 on TSN 2 and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Brad Rowland of Peachtree Hoops, who was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks kind of went in different directions in trade season, unloading Kyle Korver but turning around and acquiring Ersan Ilyasova. All told, they gave up Korver, Tiago Splitter, a 2nd-round pick, a 2nd-round pick swap, and Mike Scott for Mike Dunleay, Mo Williams, a future 1st-round pick, Eran Ilyaosva, the rights to Cenk Ayol, and some cash. How would you evaluate Mike Budhenolzer’s job from a front office perspective over those two months? Try to be moderate with your Cenk Ayol excitement.
Brad Rowland: First of all, nothing makes me happier than a Cenk Akyol reference. Beyond that, I have mixed feelings about what Budenholzer and the front office did in-season. I was on board with the Korver trade, simply because extracting a first-round pick for a non-star expiring contract is a win in my book. To turn around and then “buy” at the deadline, though, was confusing and the direction of the franchise in that regard is up in the air. Fortunately, they didn’t really give up much to add Ilyasova and, given that they are clearly prioritizing this season, he helps them enough where I was alright with it.
Blake Murphy: Another big addition the Hawks made was signing Jose Calderon. I’m not sure if you’re aware, but not only is Calderon one of the greatest Raptors of all time, he’s also one of the greatest humans. What are the expectations for Calderon’s role with the Hawks down the stretch here?
Brad Rowland: I’ve always been a fan, honestly. He debuted on Wednesday while Malcolm Delaney (the team’s incumbent backup PG) received a DNP and Calderon was… fine. The big question is whether his defense is bad enough to offset any positive contributions that he brings offensively and, because of that, I’m not sure he’s an upgrade on Delaney. With that said, I was begging for the Hawks to actually sign a third point guard after fooling around with combo guards like Gary Neal and Lamar Patterson, so the Calderon move makes sense. We know what he is.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks are still hanging around the top of the defensive rankings, standing fourth in defensive efficiency despite only average defensive rebounding and opponent shooting. How are the Hawks able to be so aggressive in forcing turnovers yet keep teams off the free-throw line? That would seem, on the surface, to be a way to frustrate the Kyle Lowry-less Raptors.
Brad Rowland: Being able to defend without fouling has been a hallmark of this defense the last couple of years. The rebounding is actually a severe uptick from previous editions, when Atlanta ranked at or near the bottom of the league. What the Hawks have sacrificed, though, is some of the malleability that made them special with the Horford-Millsap combination and being able to switch and trap more effectively. If there is a weakness right now, it is that the Hawks allow far too many three-point attempts and that can kill them (just ask Cleveland) but, in general, this is a good defensive team that boasts a legitimately elite defender in the middle of it all with Paul Millsap.
Blake Murphy: The Raptors have a three-game edge on the Hawks for fourth in the East, with just 18 games to go. Does home court in the first round remain a goal for the Hawks? Fighting off Indiana for fifth? They seem to be in a bit of a strange no man’s land where they may not have a preference for seed if they can’t grab fourth, since sliding means avoiding Cleveland in round two, anyway.
Brad Rowland: I don’t think the Hawks can realistically track down the No. 4 seed. Atlanta’s schedule has been wildly breezy thus far but it finally heats up a bit down the stretch (beginning earlier this week) and that combined with a negative net rating paints a pretty bleak picture. I’d imagine they want to land in the No. 5 spot and that seems like the probable scenario, but there is something to be said for avoiding Cleveland at all costs given how ugly that match-up has been for the Hawks.
Blake Murphy: Let’s assume it’s Raptors-Hawks in round one. Can I crash on your couch for the Atlanta portion of the series? And who would you pick, conceding it’s still very far away?
Brad Rowland: You’re always welcome at Rowland Manor. Let’s make that clear now. As for the series, I would pick the Raptors provided Kyle Lowry is healthy and back. That seems to be in the cards given the injury reports that are out there and, frankly, I’m not a huge believer in this Hawks team. I have a feeling it would be an interesting series but my pessimism overrides everything in the end. Raptors in 6. (yes, it’s early)
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Raptors updates
There’s good news on the Raptors’ front, with DeMarre Carroll having practiced Thursday. That was his first session since spraining his left ankle Saturday, and Dwane Casey made it sounds as if Carroll will go. That’s huge for Toronto, because without him and Kyle Lowry, they’re thin on 3-point shooting, and that’s one of the best ways to rack up points against Atlanta’s otherwise stout defense. The starting lineup involving Carroll hasn’t been particularly effective so far – a -3.7 net rating in 88 minutes – but there’s little reason to think that fivesome can’t figure things out. They were fine with P.J. Tucker in Carroll’s spot, and Carroll helps space the floor even better.
Perhaps it’s the Serge Ibaka-Jonas Valanciunas pairing that requires a closer look, but there’s likewise not a ton of reason to think that can’t work, even if Ibaka might be best-suited to the five in smaller lineups on this particular roster. The Ibaka-Valanciunas pairing is a minus-5.8 in 119 minutes, but that experiment should be given plenty of sample size, and it’s actually a duo that matches up really nicely against a Paul Millsap-Dwight Howard frontcourt. Atlanta represents a nice opportunity for Valanciunas to build on a terrific Wednesday performance and find some momentum as he and the team figure out exactly where he fits in a post-deadline rotation.
PG: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: DeMarre Carroll
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Kyle Lowry
Hawks updates
The Hawks will be down Lil’ Dun on Friday, as the former Intercontinental Champion and voice behind Slippery When Wet is dealing with right ankle synovitis, which sounds unpleasant. Otherwise, the Hawks have all hands on deck, including their newest addition, Jose Calderon. Where, exactly, Calderon fits is something the Hawks will take some time to figure out, but if nothing else, it will be good to see the Raptors’ all-time assist leader bouncing around, smiling, dishing passes, knocking down open shots, and generally getting torched on defense. He’s only played against the Raptors nine times in his career, averaging 11.6 points and 5.7 assists with a robust 58.5 true-shooting percentage.
The key for the Raptors here may be starting out strong. The roster tweaks have led to Mike Budenholzer juggling rotations a bit, but the starting lineup has been fairly steady. In 383 minutes together over 32 appearances, they’ve been outscored by 3.5 points per-100 possessions. That same group struggled mightily with Kyle Korver in place of Thabo Sefolosha, too, and at some point Budenholzer may have to make an uncomfortable late-season change. For the Raptors, coming out of the gates hard in the first and third and building a lead could help insulate them from what have been some pretty strong Atlanta bench units.
PG: Dennis Schroder, Jose Calderon, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Thabo Sefolosha, Taurean Prince, DeAndre’ Bembry
PF: Paul Millsap, Ersan Ilyasova, Ryan Kelly
C: Dwight Howard, Mike Muscala, Kris Humphries
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Mike Dunleavy
The line
The Raptors are 2-point underdogs with a 201 over-under. The low total is interesting, but the Raptors have played quite slot of late, and the Hawks normally keep things pretty low-scoring thanks to stellar defense and a shaky offense. The line suggests that even a Lowry-less Raptors team is better on neutral court than the Hawks, but home court here swings it slightly in Atlanta’s favor. Want to bet on the Raptors to continue rolling on this road trip? You get the benefit of a couple of points to cushion any late-game heartbreak, at least.
