We are now 3 games and 5 days away from the end of the regular season and a lot has already been decided. The Raptors have already clinched a playoff berth and 2nd place in the East is still technically possible but very unlikely, leaving the Raptors a likely 3rd or 4th seed; the Wizards have to win 1 more game than the Raptors to take over that third spot because Toronto owns the tiebreaker so the advantage is definitely with Toronto. What is very much undecided is who the Raptors will play and what you want to see happen over the next few games depends on whether you have a preference as to which mediocre team they play in the first round, but if the Raptors are as good as we say they are then it really shouldn’t matter. Those first round opponents should be nothing more than a snack for them, so the Raptors goals should be to get everyone familiar with each other and keep everyone in rhythm.
Game 79 has the Raptors at home to a Miami Heat that wasn’t supposed to be in the playoff hunt but finds themselves in the thick of it. Right now the Heat are a half game out of the 8th seed and with all of their remaining games coming against top 4 East seeds they may have the toughest schedule of the teams in that playoff race so the Raptors should expect a fight. It’s not really an ideal opponent for a team that wants to has an incentive to try for the win but also want to avoid getting into a cage fight and playing key guys major minutes. The last thing the Raptors need right now is a rotation player getting hurt diving for a loose ball or taking a charge in game 79 of the regular season and as thrilling as it was to see Kyle Lowry’s performance against the Detroit Pistons we probably don’t want to see more 40+ minute outings for him before the playoffs come around.
The fact that these two teams likely have very different objectives tonight is really the only source of intrigue at this point. They’ve played each other 3 times already with the Raptors scoring two convincing victories and suffering one embarrassing loss without Lowry, and the season sample size is big enough to say that the Raptors are clearly the better and more talented team. If both teams play up to their capabilities the home team should score another victory.
The stage is set for the Heat to step up, though. Goran Dragic has been quiet against the Raptors this season but he’s been on a tear lately, averaging 25 ppg on 51% shooting in his last 5 games. Former Raptor fan favourite James Johnson has also stepped up during this stretch run, putting up 16 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists on 54% shooting over those same 5 games. This is critical for the Heat, who run an offense that uses a lot of pick and roll but do not have a lot of effective pick and roll players. They’ve taken to using James Johnson as a de facto point guard and as most of us could probably have guessed they’ve been getting mixed results. The Heat are currently 16th in offensive rating and their offense tends to rise and fall depending on the performance of their secondary ball-handlers which makes them an ideal opponent as the Raptors gear up for the playoffs; they run a lot of action that the Raptors struggle to defend but they don’t do it so proficiently that they’re liable to blow them out with it. This would be a good opportunity to set aside a few extra minutes for Jonas Valanciunas to get him some more reps in pick and roll coverage in a game that isn’t all that important against an opponent that runs a lot of pick and roll but isn’t particularly good at it.
The Raptors are coming off a pair of lacklustre performances and will be looking to bounce back as they continue to reintegrate Kyle Lowry and try to build some chemistry between him and the new additions to the roster. The results were mixed in his first game back; Lowry was obviously good and the offense was solid when he shared the court with Ibaka but the defensive chemistry was lacking a bit. They’ll also be looking to try to figure out a playoff rotation; despite strong showings while Lowry is out both Delon Wright and Norman Powell found their minutes slashed with Powell being completely removed from the rotation. It’s unclear if either of them will make the playoff rotation, but DeMarre Carroll and PJ Tucker being somewhat redundant and both of them proving that they can contribute leave the door open to the possibility. If either get minutes look for them to make the most of the opportunity.
This should be a tune up game for the Raptors: play hard, try out some new things, try to hammer out the rotation but try to keep the minutes down with the playoffs so close. It’s important for the Raptors to get up early to avoid the physical toll that comes from having to claw your way back into a game and to trust the bench to keep everyone fresh. The game tips of at 7:30 on TSN2.
Three Keys:
Get DeRozan Back on Track – DeMar DeRozan has struggled in the Raptors last two games. Some of it can be chalked up to Lowry’s return, his role changed a lot while his backcourt partner was out and a short adjustment period should be expected. With the amount of time they’ve put in together they should fall into their old rhythm pretty quickly and toward the end of the Pistons game you could already see them getting back in sync.
Containing Goran Dragic – the’s been playing well lately but he Raptors have done a great job containing him this season; n three matchups with the Raptors this season he’s putting up 15 points and 5 assists on 39% shooting. This is somewhat surprising because Dragic is exactly the kind of player the Raptors struggle to defend but whatever they’re doing has been working.
Consistent Effort – We saw two good quarters against the Pacers and approximately 15 minutes of good basketball against the Pistons and everything else in those two games was awful. If they play with that kind of consistency when the playoffs roll around we’re all in for a stressful postseason. They don’t need to blow the Heat out from start to finish – though that would be nice – but having more good minutes than bad would be a great start.
