Full disclosure: The content plan for this morning called for a series preview for Raptors 905 in the D-League Eastern Conference Finals, but Fort Wayne made a ridiculous fourth-quarter comeback last night and Demetrius Jackson missed a buzzer-beater for Maine, so the 905 are stuck waiting around to find out their opponent for another couple of days. So we have to change directions.
Luckily, we can look ahead a little bit, because Monday’s NBA action provided us with at least a little bit of clarity for the Toronto Raptors’ playoff bracket.
Boston won. This means the Raptors can no longer grab the second seed. The Raptors are now officially locked in to the third seed.
Cleveland lost. This puts Boston in the top spot and gives the Raptors at least a bit of incentive to lose against Cleveland on Wednesday, if you don’t believe in karma. With the Raptors still seeking chemistry since Kyle Lowry’s return and talking as if they won’t be resting people, it stands to reason they’ll at least play one half of the game as if it matters. Really, there’s not a lot the Raptors can do here – beat Cleveland, and Boston gets the top seed. Try to lose to them, and Boston wins, and the Raptors gave up the chance to get more experience as a unit for nothing. Try to lose to them while Boston loses to Milwaukee, and avoid Cleveland in round two but tempt the basketball gods. The Raptors are gonna just do them with this much uncertainty about the second round.
Milwaukee won. This means the Hawks can no longer grab the six seed, which means the Raptors will face the Bucks or the Pacers. If Atlanta wins even once in their Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back (at home against Charlotte and at Indiana), the Raptors get Milwaukee, because the Hawks own the tiebreaker with the Bucks. If Atlanta loses both (which includes a game against Indiana) and Milwaukee wins their finale (at Boston), the Raptors will get Indiana, because the Pacers own the tiebreaker with the Hawks. There is a three-way tie scenario still on the table if Atlanta loses out and Milwaukee also loses, but the Raptors would draw Milwaukee in that scenario, too. (This also means that if Atlanta wins Tuesday, the Bucks have nothing to play for against Boston on Wednesday, making Boston’s path to the top seed easier.)
Here are the scenarios laid out:
- Atl d. Cha on Tuesday – Wednesday’s games don’t matter to the Raptors, Raptors get Bucks
- Cha d. Atl on Tuesday
- Atl d. Ind on Wednesday – Mil/Bos doesn’t matter, Raptors get Bucks
- Ind d. Atl, Mil d. Bos on Wednesday – Raptors get Pacers
- Ind d. Atl, Bos d. Mil on Wednesday – Raptors get Bucks (by way of three-way tiebreaker)
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Hawks have a 77.5-percent chance of winning at least one of their games and Boston has a 73-percent chance of beating Milwaukee. By my math, there’s a 83.6-percent chance Toronto gets Milwaukee, using 538’s game probabilities. So the Raptors are probably getting Milwaukee, but it might still be Indiana. Confusing enough?
This all raises the question: Which would you prefer? I’ve heard solid arguments either way, and while I have my opinion and it’s popped up in notes posts and tweets in recent days/weeks, I don’t want to skew the poll by making the case either way until later. So, by vote, who would you rather play in round one: Indiana or Milwaukee? Leave a comment with your reasoning.
By the way, there won’t be an “off day news and notes” post tonight. Atlanta is the only relevant game, with a Hawks win locking in Raptors-Bucks.
