Following his selecting on draft night, the prevailing through was that whatever OG Anunoby could contribute during his rookie season would be a bonus, if he could contribute anything at all that is. While he was once thought of as a potential top 10 pick, his stock plummeted following a torn ACL that saw him miss the second half of his sophomore year at Indiana and was expected to steal the majority of his rookie season.
Instead, OG shocked everyone by suddenly appearing in the team’s first intra-squad game, played minimally in every pre-season contest, and would play in the first 60 games of the season prior to being sidelined with an ankle injury.
It took just 12 games coming off the bench at the start of the season before he seemingly cemented himself in the starting line-up, and for the majority of the season he has been an advanced stats darling who seemingly raised the Net Rating of any line-up that was lucky enough to play beside him.
The Raptors were 43-17 when Anunoby went down, including 37-13 with him in the starting line-up. At the time his season averages were 5.8 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.2 blocks per game, but his impact on winning was unquestionable.
Since Anunoby returned from injury the Raptors are just 4-4, their worst stretch of the season.
As I sit back and read that that sentence over again I can’t help but notice the implication that the 4-4 record sits at the feet of OG, which is certainly not what I am trying to say. Just as the 43-17 record prior to his injury isn’t the result of OG exclusively.
The beauty of how the Raptors are developing OG is that they have the long view in mind. He wasn’t supposed to be this good, this early. This was supposed to be a process, with the idea of what OG could become in his prime. He has all the physical tools and the basketball IQ to succeed at a high level, and giving him reps on a winning team may help speed along some of that growth.
While Anunoby has contributed far more than was once expected, most rookies, even those at the top of their class, will inevitably hit some type of a rookie wall. Do one quick search on Twitter and you’ll see how many fans are asking this about OG.
And if you look at his statistics, there has been a general drop off throughout the season. The below chart looks at OG’s Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Net Rating broken down in 10 game segments. Keep in mind that OG entered the starting line-up in game 13, and has appeared in 8 games since returning from injury.
These statistics are obviously impacted by the team’s production around him, but I thought they could be good catch-all type numbers to look at how OG has contributed within the team context. So how do these numbers compare to the overall team statistics?
For good chunks of the season OG’s OffRtg has been higher than that of the Raptors as a whole, but this has been decidedly different over his last 18 games. Overall though, the OffRtg with OG over the last 8 games has still been 108.9, which over the entire season would be good for the 7th best team rating.
Offense has not been the problem. What about defense?
While OG’s DefRtg has largely gotten less flattering as the season has progressed, the same can once again be said about the Raptors.
It’s no excuse, but a struggling defensive team facing four top 10 offenses coming off a recent condensed schedule is going to have an impact on the overall numbers.
OG coming off of injury has been far from what we have come to expect, although I would argue that he has started to look more bouncy in the last 2-3 games. Despite his struggles though, there are greater issues at play that what the team’s rookie small forward is contributing.
The production of players like DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Serge Ibaka will decide Toronto’s floor this season. Even with the improved role players and the Bench Mob, the team can still only go far in the playoffs if their top players perform well.
But players like OG can be what decide the Raptors’ ceiling. Unless we see more experimenting with Pascal Siakam guarding wings, OG remains the Raptors’ best chance of slowing down opposing scorers. They need him out there to give the starting unit more balance.
If he can continue capably knocking down open three pointers (45.5 percent over last 8 games) and finding cutting lanes to the basket, he provides more than enough offense with such potent teammates around him. The challenge will be whether he, and the Raptors collectively, can get back to their best at stopping their opponent (or at least slowing them down).
Despite having one of the league’s worst defenses over the last 8 games, the Raptors still have the 6th best team defensive rating on the season.
They have 6 games left to figure this out, and I believe OG can have a big role to play in the solution.
