There’s a lot of talk in the mainstream media now about how Kawhi Leonard hasn’t said much or shown any excitement about joining the Raptors. This has to be weighed against Leonard also being an extreme introvert who avoids social media and media in general. That has to be balanced against how it would have taken so little (maybe a single tweet) just to avoid all this noise about him potentially being unhappy. That has to be balanced with the odds of Leonard even remembering what his his Twitter password is (hasn’t posted in three years). Of course, that has to be balanced with the need to create content which can drive some clicks.
I don’t know if Leonard is happy or unhappy. For all I know he’s secretly of the prove ‘em mindset and looking to quietly kill everyone next season. Or maybe he’s dreading the upcoming year before he f’s off to LA to be LeBron’s sidekick. Maybe he’s contemplating a career in astrophysics and just wants to focus on updating his resume so he’s got a good shot at his upcoming NASA interview. Or perhaps he’s recovering from a relationship heartbreak. I have no clue.
Given that we don’t have any real data and it’s unlikely that Leonard will make public comments about his past, current, or future situation, the only thing we’re left to form insights on are microdata such as physical cues, facial expressions, esoteric quotes, and so on. So, to ease matters let’s review some of the things that you should watch out for when you try to figure out if Kawhi Leonard is happy or not:
How often he blinks
We definitely have to keep an eye on how many times the man blinks. Research has shown that when someone blinks too much, they’re lying. Now, we can pretty much assume that Kawhi will never answer a contract question ever, but that shouldn’t stop reporters from asking them and then monitoring his blink rate. Once that data is gathered, it must be compared with average human blink rates, and if Kawhi’s blink rate is beyond a standard deviation on the higher side, well, he may as well be wearing a Lakers jersey.
Does he wear Raptors gear off the court?
When I used to work at Sobey’s as part of the night shift, they wanted me to wear some sort of uniform. Which I did only because I had to. Once the shift was over that thing came right off. Compared that to when I used to work at Playdium in Mississauga. Man, I wore that uniform to my high school graduation. You get the point.
The force of his fist bump/high fives with Drake
Kawhi’s a nice guy and he’ll bump fists with anyone who offers it. That’s not what matters, what matters is what the force for those interactions are. Force = mass x acceleration, and since mass can be treated like a constant between two fist-bumping parties, we have to keep an eye on acceleration. If he’s running down the court and speeding up when going towards Drake, we got ourselves a five-year extension. If he’s decelerating, he may as well be living in Beverly Hills.
Leaf game sighting
If there is no sighting at a Leaf game within the first three months, you may as well save some time and ship him off in December. Going to a Leaf game is the sign of playing not just for the Raptors, but also recognizing that you care, at least a little, about how the city is doing. You have officially crossed over from being a Raptors player to someone who can be moderately bothered about city on-goings. This is a critical milestone that we need to track in post-game interviews even if it’s at the end of the interview as he’s walking away.
Jays first pitch
With the Jays last home game on Wednesday, September 26, it’s going to be very difficult for Kawhi to get in on some first pitch action. This gesture would have satisfied everyone’s Kawhi craving, as it checks off a few boxes:
- Is physically in Toronto
- Healthy enough to walk without crutches
- Gives enough shits to suffer through a Jays game
I don’t know who Kawhi’s publicist is (do NBA players even have one?) but if he does, they’re missing out on a big opportunity to calm everyone down.
Where is he when injured
Whether he’s with the team when injured is huge. You might recall Hedo Turkoglu skipping a lot of games, especially on the road, anytime he got the sniffles. If an injured Kawhi’s skipping road games, it’s not too alarming, but the second he skips a home game while injured, it’s over.
Pull-up jumpers
Early shot-clock pull-up jumpers are the ultimate IDGAF move. If Kawhi’s popping these more than normal, he’s settling and checked out. Ignoring last season where he only played 9 games, 29% of his shots attempts the year before were with at least 15 seconds on the clock. If that rate shoots up in combination with how many contested jumpers he’s taking, it’s a sign that he’s using games as jump-shot practice.
Promotional/Community engagement
How engaged he’s with community events via the MLSE Foundation is going to be big. I think the bare minimum is two public appearances before December, if not higher. Considering his low-key personality and his reputation for being of the kinder/saner type of player, one would imagine community events are his thing. I’m talking a visit to Sick Kids, maybe the ribbon-cutting of a local court. Small stuff.
Relationship with Lowry
For all intents and purposes, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry were best friends. With DeRozan gone, Kawhi has to fill the hole in Kyle’s heart. How well K2 is doing off the court can be a significant indicator of whether Kawhi will extend his deal. As Kawhi’s a write-off on social media, we need to watch out for Lowry’s Instagram for any action on this front. I’m not suggesting they have to replicate the relationship DeRozan/Lowry, just not be pariahs once the game ends.
Nursing relationships
Nick Nurse is a rookie coach who is challenged with figuring out how best to maximize Kawhi Leonard’s impact, stay true to his until-now-allegedly suppressed offensive principles, and deal with superstar personalities. There needs to be enough substance and trust between him and Nurse to outweigh the LA attraction. No player will sign a long-term extension if they’re not comfortable with the system they’ll be operating under which adds tension between what Nurse wants to do, and whether it’s aligned with how Kawhi wants to play. How this relationship developers on and off the court is quite possibly a deciding factor.
It’s going to be a fun season.
