The Toronto Raptors can only play the team that’s in front of them, and so far they’ve been whooping the team in front of them. Credit to them. It’s the Golden State Warriors, and it’s the NBA Finals, yet the Raptors remain stunningly consistent. They lead 2-1 largely, behind the continuing dominance of their half-court defense.
Game four is, for perhaps the seventh or eighth game in a row, the largest game in Raptors’ franchise history. That’s sort of how these things go when a franchise has never been here before. The Warriors are vulnerable. They were so vulnerable in game three that even a mediocre performance put the Raptors over the top. Golden State remains vulnerable, even as Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney will return from injury. That the Warriors are bringing back multiple key players so early is an indication that they are in desperation mode. The Raptors need to rise to meet the Warriors’ intensity level early, as the Dubs are sure to come out looking to re-establish dominance.
In games one and two, the Raptors did a mostly excellent job of eliminating the Warriors’ few threats by rotating cleanly behind switches. The Raptors love to double the ball and trust the intelligence of their defenders to close holes before they even open. It’s been said a thousand times during this playoff run, but the collective defensive IQ of Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, and Marc Gasol is staggering. Each is more versatile than the next, and they respond to any situation by taking the initiative and forcing opponents to make the impossible choices. Fred VanVleet is cut from the same cloth, which is why Nick Nurse started him in the second half of game three.
Of course, there have been mistakes. The Raptors have played too low on Curry on the perimeter, which is how he’s averaging a patently ridiculous 34.7 points per game. For those expecting him to cool off, don’t; his percentages are actually lower so far in the series than his career percentages, so expect Curry to remain the human incarnation of destruction. Good defense can only do so much against Curry, but it could hopefully prevent him from another 47-point outburst. If the Raptors have played too low on Curry around the perimeter, they have played too high against non-threats in the midrange. The Raptors have frequently pressed up against Andrew Bogut, Draymond Green, and others in the short roll, giving up far too much space to the dunker spot for the easy lob pass. Actually, Kyle Lowry has been one of the team’s best at dissuading that alley-oop, and he’s shown plenty of bunnies multiple times in breaking up the lob. The team, though, has given it up too often.
It would be too easy to make these Finals about the Warriors. In that lens, the story of game one was the Warriors’ no-show. Game two was about the Warriors’ 18-0 run after halftime. Game three was about the Warriors’ injuries. These are simple narratives, and they appeal because the dynastic heavyweight always carries more narrative weight. The Fall of Rome is called the Fall of Rome, not the rise of the Visigoths.
But the Raptors are making this story about them. If they can win game four and take a 3-1 lead home, the narrative wheel starts to spin.
Toronto Injury Updates
It’s very weird writing that this is clean.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Jeremy Lin
SG: Danny Green, Patrick McCaw, Jodie Meeks
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Malcolm Miller
PF: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby
C: Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka
Golden State Injury Updates
Klay Thompson (hamstring strain) will return. He’s an iron man, so it’s wild that he sat out a game. I either expected him to play through it in game three, or for him to sit out the remainder of the playoffs. Nevertheless, here he is, and his jumpshot remains devastating to defensive structures no matter the extent of Thompson’s limitations. Kevon Looney (fractured collar bone) is playing. Steve Kerr says there is no risk of re-injury, and Looney is going to give it a go. Kevin Durant (calf) is out.
PG: Steph Curry, Quinn Cook
SG: Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston
SF: Andre Iguodala, Alfonzo McKinnie
PF: Draymond Green, Jonas Jerebko
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Kevon Looney, Andrew Bogut, Jordan Bell
Rotation notes
- The starters played a playoff-low 7.8 minutes together in game three, yet they were a silly +10 in those few minutes. Danny Green was a flamethrower, and Siakam feasted in the paint. This lineup shot 9-of-13 from the field in its few minutes. Defense was actually the reason why the Nick Nurse opted to keep this lineup’s minutes so low. Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol made some simple coverage errors against Steph Curry, and Nurse wanted to match his best Curry-stopper, Fred VanVleet, to the Warriors’ only threat.
- To that end, the Lowry-VanVleet-Leonard-Siakam-Gasol lineup was fantastic, and Nurse started it in the second half. It played the most minutes for Toronto, with 14.8. It certainly still made mistakes, but Curry had to work harder for his points. I don’t expect VanVleet to start in Green’s place in game four, especially with Toronto potentially wanting more size on the floor on the defensive end with Klay Thompson’s return. However, it’s always a good thing to have guys you can’t keep off the floor. VanVleet cannot be off the floor for too much time because of his defensive chops. It helps that he’s balling out of his mind on offense, but his defense is really his calling card right now.
- Another fantastic lineup in game three was Lowry-VanVleet-Green-Siakam-Ibaka. This group really hasn’t seen much time together in the playoffs, sitting at only 18 minutes in five games played in the playoffs before game three. They did play a huge total in the regular season, with 187 minutes (they went +59), so it’s not a new group by any means. They were actually the second-most used lineup in the regular season! But that was more due to players missing, like Jonas Valanciunas and Leonard, throughout the year, and Nurse really turned away from it in the playoffs. But it makes great sense against the Warriors.
- When VanVleet and Green are hitting their shots, this lineup has tremendous spacing. Lowry can run the high pick-and-roll with Ibaka, with VanVleet and Green spacing the floor, and Siakam lurking in the dunker spot. Or Siakam can initiate from the post or in the pick-and-roll. There are a multitude of options. They’re switchy on defense and will force a bunch of turnovers. This group will run and get up a boatload of triples, especially in transition. There’s a lot to like about this group
- To that end, this lineup won their 6.8 minutes by four points in game three. They only shot 2-for-6 from deep, but they played terrific defense. They were Toronto’s best defensive group among units that played more than two minutes, and they did it all without Leonard on the floor. They held the Warriors to 3-of-11 from the field in their minutes. Expect to see more of this lineup going forward, although Thompson’s return diminishes its utility a small amount.
Assorted
- Steph freaking Curry. What a monster. 47 points in game three in a losing effort. I actually liked Toronto’s defensive structure, which was to guard him normally, if with lots of attention, and limit everyone else on the floor. Aside from a few glaring mistakes, which I’ve mentioned plenty in other places here, Curry just earned his points. Better that than open up the lob game for others.
- DeMarcus Cousins was a weak point on defense in game three. Toronto took their inability to beat him at the start of game two and flipped it on its head, decimating Cousins with relative ease. Cousins had a defensive rating of 75.4 in game two, and it ballooned to 126.8 in game three. That’s a staggering change, and by far the biggest delta of any Warrior between games.
- Instead of running Cousins in the pick-and-roll and trying to pick on him for dropping or switching (game two’s approach), the Raptors just ran their offense through the post. Siakam feasted in the paint no matter who was guarding him. Marc Gasol also dominated the Cousins matchup, shooting 3-for-5 from the field with Cousins as his primary defender while also scoring four from the line. It was a simple but effective approach, and Toronto scored 22 points in the paint in the first half. It was a dominant showing.
- Klay Thompson returning doesn’t just juice the Warriors’ offense, it also gives the Dubs their best option on Leonard. When the Warriors went on their 18-0 run in the third quarter of game two, it was partially because Thompson switched onto Leonard, letting Iguodala and Green wreak more havoc off the ball, where they are more threatening than Thompson. Here’s Nurse on Thompson’s value on defense.
- “He’s a great defender,” said Nurse. “I think he’s one of the best, right up there at the top of the best wing defenders in the league. I mean, he’s probably underrated in that department. He really puts in some awesome defensive performances for them, especially when they really need them.”
- To that end, the Warriors’ defense has been unique in its focus on Leonard. The rest of the roster has stepped up to the plate, but Leonard has struggled at times getting rid of the ball early against traps and double-teams. “He’s probably getting a lot more double teams this series than he has in the past, so that’s going to limit his shots,” said Nurse after game three. “But I also think, especially last night, he did a better job of getting off it a little earlier and it helped us.”
- Leonard’s words on the same topic were instructive: “Can’t be hero basketball. Just because people want to see me beat these records or want me to score 30 points does not mean I have to do that. I have to go out there and try to win a basketball game, either that’s shots being limited on the offensive end and I’m going in playing harder on the defensive end, trying to get us five more shots for somebody else.”
- A lot of the focus after game three was on Mark Stevens and his pushing Kyle Lowry. I don’t have anything to add to the story, but for those who haven’t heard, Stevens is an investor in the Golden State Warriors, and he pushed Lowry after the latter had chased a loose ball and landed courtside. The NBA has fined Stevens $500 000, and he’s been banned from NBA games for a year. The Warriors may add more to the punishment.
- The refs in this one are Mike Callahan, Zach Zarba, and Eric Lewis.
The Line
- Golden State is -4.5. The over-under is 215.5.
